Like all of the "bets" on the internet, it's time to end this as it ain't never gonna happen.
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Like all of the "bets" on the internet, it's time to end this as it ain't never gonna happen.
1 million hands is too small of a sample size. I'd go no less than 1 trillion hands.
Just toss a coin. If you win, the donkey will send you a bottle of scotch.
1-million deals is a different bet than 1-million hands.
Not setting the denomination of play is also a factor, because as I pointed out earlier, the player could start out at a high denomination and then after hitting something big could switch to penny VP playing one coin per hand for the balance of the million hands (or deals).
What this all proves is what I wrote in the first place.
Fakers throw these bets and challenges around that are so unrealistic to play out that nobody can accept.
The wormm offered several $10K bets in this thread alone...but he won't put the money up front, he wants to bet $10K on credit.
I can play one million hands in a day...but no, the wormm says he must sit next to me in Montana for six months and watch me play single line.
He's deranged...nothing but a shit-talking phony.
The 100 play scenario is irrelevant to me anyway because there aren't any multi-hand video poker games in Montana. And Belly will never get the chance to manipulate me with changing denominations. He's going to flat bet $1.25 per hand on a single line game on a million hand challenge. If he wants to waste my time then I will waste his time and money. I'll screw it off in his ass. Get your ass on up here, Belly.
mickey we all realize that this will never happen. No one is going to waste five months playing single line video poker at $1.25 just to prove a point... if they have a life.
Alan, there's two things going on here. All belly has ever done is insult the hell out of me on this site. It goes back a long ways. So I damn sure won't do belly any favors by shelling out for travel, meals and lodging, plus losing productivity by being out of action on my own plays, while tied up with him.
But 2nd, by not doing him any favors I'm actually doing him a favor. I just got a response on vpFREE. At 8/5 Bonus Poker the standard deviation is .00435% on one million hands. That's 4.35 tenths of a percent. So at 7/5 Bonus Poker it would be at least a 4 sigma event for him to be at breakeven or better on a million hands. That's more than 4 standard deviations. The frequency of occurance on 4 standard deviations is less than 3 in 10,000.
I agree with you that he's being inflexible, but has he actually refused a reasonable scenario? I'm not sure a reasonable scenario exists. I think the validity of using a 100-play machine could be debated either way. Location is a huge problem because it's established that he never visits Vegas, and his potential win on the bet is only $100.
And even if those impediments are resolved, you're still faced with the inconvenience of playing several long sessions to reach the target. I think we all had an idea from the beginning that it was an impractical proposal, which is why it's hard to take seriously.
The one and only reason mickey is refusing the 100-play machine--which happens to be the only reasonable machine in a challenge such as this--is because he is financially incapable of going to LV, so he is able to T&C out of the bet. Typical chickenshit.
He also wants no part of playing a multi-denomination strategy because he knows coach may well play my strategy and mickey well knows how often I've won over the years.
Conclusion: mickey is a BS-spewing cowardly sissy.
I have a question regarding "deals" and "hands." I don't know who uses what lingo, but since video poker hands are a two-step process that is different in multi-line than in single line, shouldn't there be a third term to describe hands that result from a "seed deal" as opposed to those that don't? Does anyone know the proper terminology?
I don't play on credit, porkbelly. I'm all cash and carry. Here's my end of the bet, assclown. Zoom in and check out the date on the newspaper. Then check the time stamp on this post.
http://www.imgur.com/npTcbn5
One round is a set of hitting deal & draw. If someone says "1000 hands" I automatically assume they mean 100 rounds/deals, and if they meant anything else then they're stupid for not specifying.
I've never really liked calling 1 round of 100-play as "100 hands". It would be like someone playing 2 hands at a time at a blackjack table and saying they're getting 200 hands per hour when they're getting 100 rounds per hour. I hope people don't start saying they can crank out 40,000 hands per hour.
I don't think Mickey's "bet" was meant to be a real proposition, but more of a common phrase type thing, saying how unlikely winning after 1M rounds on a 98% game would. Ya ever hear someone say, "I betcha a million bucks..."? It's not someone saying they're actually going to make such a wager, but they are very confident in their side. And in this case, Mickey is absolutely right, as winning after 1M hands on a 98% VP game would be quite improbable.
If coach had any sense, he'd realize wagering 1:100 on being ahead after 1M hands on a 98% game would be a ludicrous bet. I don't suspect that anything he's said thus far has been serious, rather, trying to play the "gotcha game"......as I suspected, quite a while ago.
Thanks for reminding me, Rob. I just checked with Experian. My credit rating is 797. I maintain credit because you have to have it to do various things. I pay my balances off every month so interest is of no concern to me. I'm not an expert on credit and am certainly not burdened with credit card debt. I just received another unsolicited offer for a credit line. I accepted the card because there is no yearly fee and the money I spend in restaurants and supermarkets gets me a big discount on gasoline. I run through 50 or 60 gallons a month so it should be a big savings to me. I'm always looking for loopholes and hidden charges. If I catch them screwing me I cancel the card.
Rob, how is your credit rating after those two recent judgements for non-payment of rent?
Good job on setting the hook deep in the old troll and his best buddy. You've had them flopping around here for several days now. People get too hung up on credit score, living a debt free life is the key to financial freedom. I like and use affinity cards, but only recommend them if paid of every month. Sounds like you have some common sense, I doubt if there are any bankruptcies in your past.
More entertainment watching you make more silly, unsubstantiated claims mickey. Coach wounded you so badly that now all you can do is throw some salt into it as a relief!
So let's have some more of that virtual reality. How about "I have hundreds of thousands in my rotting out mattress" or "I bought a Rolex from playing nickel keno". :)
And then there's your already proclaimed "gotcha" claiming "I could start receiving Social Security payments but I'm gonna wait a few more years"....when you also claim to "never have worked a real job in my life".
These kind of mistakes originate from living a made-up life on the internet as well as having no education. Bingo on both counts!
More wormm-speak. Like it or not, 1 round of play on a 100-play machine is 100 hands...they're right there on the screen.
I'm serious...I'll take a shot at it.
I'll be in Vegas for a week this Spring, I suspect that I'll play 20 hours or so anyway,
so I'm willing to play it on a challenge like this for a chance to win $10K.
I only need to be ahead by a penny...Alan and jbjb wrote about a betting strategy that can win.
The wormm is out...he can't afford a vacation in Las Vegas...no earthworm can.
Maybe one of you locals can put him up for a couple of days, do you have a lawn or garden, or even some moistened soil in a pot will do.
Even though he claims to "work' only one week per month, whatever week I come to Vegas is the week he'll be busy with his keno plays.
Plus it would take forever for him to wiggle his way down from Montana...so that makes it impractical for him...I understand now.
But any of you local wormm-lovers can act as his surrogate, or even cover his action yourself.
You have a couple of months to think it over...let me know.
Frankly I don't understand why Mickey has to be present to witness this. RS__ lives in Vegas.
Alan-no good can come from a logical and reasonable solution like that.
No way in hell I'd meet up Coach or Rob. I have at least some dignity. And I wouldn't lay 100:1 that you'd be behind after 10,000 spins on 100-play.
If it came down to me, yes, I could meet up and be the witness. But no one will believe me despite my Emmy award, my awards from the LA Press Club, my awards from the Radio TV News Association of Southern Cal, my Janus Award for the Best Economic Reporting in the country, or my 30+ years as a TV journalist including 5 years at CBS News and writing for Barron's and New York Magazine. I know that no one will believe me because when I watched a random shooter throw a Yo 18 times in a row at a craps table at Caesars no one believed me. And when I went back to Caesars a few weeks later to get access to the tapes, they told me that the tapes are recycled after about three days unless a hold is put on them. And the one dealer at the table who I knew by name (and sight) was James who retired. And since no one even bet on the Yo even once and there weren't any big payouts made there isn't even a back room record of it. So... I'm out.
I believe you about the "Yo's" Alan.
Of course I still believe the earth is flat.
It’s hard to imagine what type of full blown fools could possibly participate and feed such a fn pathetic thread about such a fn pathetic challenge for days and pages of nonsense.
Then it hit me: fn pathetic self-proclaimed AP’s could be the only answer.
You all confirmed your all as dumb if not dumber than this challenge. Micky, you may not be the number one AP out there, but you’re by far the number one asshole.
Good idea suggesting mickey come to LV for the challenge with coach this spring, and have him stay with a fellow BSer jbjb. Between the two of them, maybe they could afford his round-trip bus tickets, and they MAY even start a homo relationship! After all, both spent long periods of time on WoV :)
Is that all you got Rob? I don't swing that way so quick sucking your wife's penis. You must have me confused with KewlJ.
P.S. I have no dog in this challenge and don't give a rat's ass who wins.
I'm enjoying this, I haven't seen the chest thumpers this wound up in a long time. He's got the old troll checking this thread first thing in the morning an last thing at night and responding blow for blow. I think he has a thing for Mickey, lots of homo talk from the guy. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Keep it up Mickey, reel em in.
I just got home after a busy day. Wow! All this talk and suggestions about witnesses. You know that could make things easy on me if someone volunteers to witness. Whoever volunteers, if you need any recommendations for hotels and dining establishments in Butte, let me know.
This is a prime example of how Rob fabricates lies with such ease. He even used quote marks of me supposedly saying I "never have worked a real job in my life." He is such a compulsive liar it's just really pathetic. He makes up lies about people out of the thin air. No one can ever find a post by me in any of the gambling forums saying such a thing.
I'm proud of my hard working past. I went to sea at the age of 16 doing a man's job in the engine room of a freighter. I never looked back. There were a few spots where I had easy jobs but most of it was damn hard work.
Have you ever worked 16 hours days in a fish processor when the salmon are running?
Have you ever packed 40 pound cabinets with wash basins in them up ten flights of stairs all day?
Have you ever dug ditches?
Have you ever stacked 63 pound boxes of pollock row on 12 hour shifts for days at the time?
Have you ever packed sheetrock?
Have you ever toted pressurized lumber?
Have you ever stacked 110 pound crab boxes?
Have you ever built scaffolding six stories high?
Have you ever done stoop labor like pulling weeds?
Have you ever palletized cases of bottle water?
Have you ever worked a placer mine like Gold Rush on the Discovery Channel?
Have you ever split and stacked firewood?
Have you ever moved furniture?
Have you ever wheel barrowed concrete?
Have you ever toted hundred pound form boards at 9600 ft. altitude in the Rocky Mountains?
I've done all of the above and more. Sure, it was in my drifting around days. But I was one of the hardest working guys out there. And Rob has air conditioned sinuses.
As to the question of being ahead on 7/5 BP after one million hands, that's one million deals with one million final hands, I got an answer from mikepeck5440 on vpFREE. He has a program that makes such computations. The chance is 1 in at least 30,000 that you will be at breakeven or ahead after 1 million hands.
This morning I just put forth the question of being at breakeven or ahead after 10,000 deals on a hundred play as I think belly's chances would be much better because of the smaller number--10,000--of deals.
Because there is only single line and I'm going to make you flatbet $1.25 per hand. I want to torture you. It will be great laughs while I'm wasting my time. Besides, there is no way you will get through 1 million hands. Your money will start disappearing very quickly early on. You will see the handwriting on the wall, flip me the hundy, and run for the hills.
Will you please realize what you're saying? You're gonna make him flat-bet 1.25, you're going torture him, great laughs wasting your time.
How fn far out there are you? Please seek some medical care. There is a good chance you took out to many brain cells with the alcohol. I think even the self-proclaimed AP's are no longer considering your conversation coherent.
Beer belly, I had a busy day yesterday. I went out and put down 30 plays. Got home late. 16 of the plays were winners, 14 of the plays were losers. But the winning plays totaled to $995, the losing plays totaled $458. A net earn of $537. Just another day in the life. Do you believe it? I don't care if you do or not. Have a nice day, sir.
mickey, when are you going to realize that as an internet slug, you can post any scenario you want to and only you will believe it because it is all you want to believe. This isn't vpfree where the other "AP's" you oogle over ignore you as a drunken fool, and everyone else is amazed at stories anyone writes that surpasses their penny play.
You are the Hillary Clinton of the gaming forums. She still can't believe she lost.
Mickey, how long has the troll been cyber-stalking you? Several years now right? I seem to remember you mentioning a bunch of PM's that got so bad you had to block him.
The passion and heat he puts into his replies can only mean one thing, he's got the hots for you. His veiled talk of homosexuals only confirms it. I'd say "watch your ass", but that would seem inappropriate.
He's been trolling me since 2006. But I'm not in bad company. He slanders a lot of people. He makes up lies about people out of thin air. And he is never going to change. He suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder. He HAS to run other people down. Make them out to be inferior to him. It's the only thing that gives him temporary relief from his own self loathing.
His emails to me a couple of a few years ago were particulary viscious. I asked him to quit multiple times. The hateful emails kept coming. I blocked him. Experts advise that the only way to free yourself from a malignant narcissist is to have absolutely no personal contact. I would never personally meet him and will not correspond with him through back channels. But i will never let him run me out of the gambling forums.
And don't forget how many times during your binge-drinking episodes you let your silly slug side get the best of you by proclaiming "why...why...I'm gonna kill your ass" and "I reported you and your TERRIBLE! but truthful insults to my buddies in the Montana State Police, and they told me to tell you to STOP making me and my loser life feel bad....or else they'll arrest you!"
Just too funny for words :) But what else would one expect from a loner who is too dumb to realize smoking is not healthy, and that drinking too much is just as naughty??!
I think playing ten thousand deals of 7/5 Bonus Poker on a hundred play would have the same chance of being at breakeven or ahead as 10,000 deals on a single line game. And I think one would have a much better chance to be at breakeven or ahead on 10,000 deals than 1,000,000 deals. I think the bigger the sample space is the less chance you have of being at breakeven or ahead. Your best chance to be at breakeven or ahead on 7/5 Bonus Poker is to play just one hand. The software says 54.5% of your hands will be losers. So playing just one hand you would have a 45.5% chance to be at breakeven or ahead. But playing one million hands you only have a 1 in 30,000 chance. The chance on 10,000 hands would be somewhere between the two. The bigger the sample space the less the chance. It is called "the compound effect of negative expectation gambling."
Yesterday I made a post to vpFREE asking the chance for 10,000 deals. But somehow my post didn't make it through. I'll ask the question again today.
There is a law in Montana called "Privacy in Communication." It is against the law to harass someone through electronic means. I warned Rob about the law but he kept it up. I could have pressed charges against him but then figured out how to block an email address and went with that.
mickey when are you going to realize that your continuous copy & paste jobs from WoV....your SUPER BORING & REPETITIVE hobo and flush attack stories....your non-stop referring to vpfree for third-hand opinions....and you drunken stupor nonsense about making money playing keno in the middle of nowhere without a dental plan, doesn't cut it any longer?
Have another smoke and feel dumb. You've run your course.
If you go to Bob Dancer's website and click on Radio you will find all of the archived Gambling With An Edge episodes. The list of guests on the show over the years reads like a Who's Who of the gambling world. I've even been on the show. There is one name conspicuously missing from the list, that of................ROB SINGER!
If they ever start a radio show on ignorant blather Rob will be the first guest. He's the world's foremost ignorant blatherer.
To me, what's interesting about this thread is that clearly the math for the seed deal 100-play is different from the single line math. The variance has to be less with single line for the same number of hands. This is something I had been aware of but kind of blew off. It's actually a key element that makes them completely different games with completely different math, but vp language and lingo haven't caught up with it, so people refer to them as if they are the same game.
Mickey, let us know if a math response comes back. I'm really interested to know the difference.
So the coach/mickey stuff actually had a valuable heads up for me. Who knew?
Strategy and expected return % are identical, but variance is different. I think most players with an advantage orientation will choose multi line games whenever available because of the lower variance for equal coin-in.
Some of the newer multi line games incorporate volatile bonus features that require additional coins per line, but I'm talking about generic multi line betting 5 coins per line.
Wow, you've been in his head for 11 years. I had a girlfriend in college that was the same way, dated her for a short time and I saw the crazy in her eyes and attitude and broke it off. Then the emails started, long and viscous, evil stuff - borderline nuts. I tried apologizing, reasoning and finally had to block her. Congrats though, not many of us have a long time cyber stalker.
mickey....mickey....mickey....(insert sigh)....after you FINALLY finish trying to feel better about yourself as you go on & on & on with seemingly endless babble to your new hater goofball friend james, you might want to realize that I get 10X the mileage here in debunking your nonsense than I would via emails---and I've gotten to do it in front of your jealous supporter to boot!
So go have another 6-pack and smoke some of those smelly cigarettes that show what little regard you have for yourself. Then you may keep writing about how much "hurt" a loner loser with no relationships feels when he asks for it all to be dissected online.
Oh BTW, why don't you tell your new "cyber friend" the REAL reason you aren't taking "full advantage" of that stupid law you like to keep mentioning. BECAUSE YOU'VE THREATENED TO KILL ME MULTIPLE TIMES, AND I'VE BEEN PRINTING THEM OUT OVER THE YEARS!! I wonder how the Montana State Police would like them apples :)
Wise up, dopey!
I just got a response from Dunbar Dre who created Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. His program is designed for ten play or lower. So he couldn't run 100 play. He ran ten thousand trials for single line and not one showed a breakeven or positive result. Then he ran ten thousand trials on ten play with the same amount of coin in. Only 28 out of 10,000 showed a positive result. So 100 play would probably be magnified by at least 10 times that result. It's a good thing I didn't let yellow belly manipulate me into the 100 play.
Mickey you really are a manipulated idiot by the clowns on vpfree, and they're laughing at you non-stop right now just like I am:)
Dunbar as you should realize, is smart and capable enough to analyze 100-play any time of day or night. Have you considered he simply doesn't believe you or any of your BS to take the time to answer your question?
Wise up and smell the ridicule, dopey.
Why weren't you ever back on for a second time?..The first episode went well,YellowBelly just trolling again.
It's obvious that you were hanging on every word in the interview. It wasn't "they" who made the comment when my interview was over, it was Bob. Dancer is a great video poker theorist but is somewhat lacking in street smarts. I made the comment to him that I was on the road at the time of the interview. He knew somewhat of my past. I think he took my comment to mean I was riding freight trains or thumbing interstate. My road trips consist of driving a circuit around the state and hitting the casinos. I stay in hotels in those towns.
It was 1996 the last time I did any thumbing or riding trains. Bob see's the filthy derelicts in Las Vegas and thinks that's the way all homeless people are. I was very good at covering up my homeless status to the public. I never allowed myself to get dirty. There's a shower in every truck stop you pass on the highway. There are municipal swimming pools and recreation centers in every town to take showers in. Just because one is homeless doesn't mean that person has to go filthy. That shit is for the mentally ill.
Neutral party here.
Was trying to upload the tape and attach here but it doesn't seem to work.
Anyone know how to do it?
If so, let me know and I will attach.
My opinion, no lisp and a little fun made at the end.
Or go to bobdancer.com/radio archives #10 April 7 and listen for yourselves.
Can't speak for other areas, but the ones around here have lockers. You need your own lock, but generally most public pools will have some way to secure your valuables. Showers are another story, only ones I've seen are the outside ones for showering before entering the pool and after leaving the pool to wash off the chlorine. I've never seen anyone taking a proper shower in one, but I guess it's possible.
It is pretty damn low to criticize someone for a speech impediment.