Alan I made the statement "I would have no problem laying someone 100 to 1 that they would not be ahead on a 98% game after 1 million hands" off the top of my head. It was a rhetorical statement. I believe the odds are in the thousands to one that one would be ahead after a million hands. But then belly jumped in, doing his usual "gotcha" routine. I was placed in a position of having to back down or go through with it.
I hadn't thought about the logistics of such a bet. Belly kept pushing it trying to "gotcha" me. I felt I had no option, unless I wanted to go against my word, but to go through with it, albeit, on my terms. It will cost me a lot of lost productivity by having to monitor him on the play. But, pride being what it is, I have no intention of backing down and letting belly get over on me. So if he wants the bet he's got it, but on my terms.
Since belly wants to waste my time I'm sure going to waste his time and money. The challenge will take place in Montana. Like, I said, I'm damn sure not going to spend the money to have to hole up in New Jersey or Nevada to put the play down. When I made the statement it was in reference to a five-coin quarter single line game. That's exactly what he is going to have to play. If he intends to push me into the bet then I'm going to cost him a lot of money, period. He can fork out for his own room and board while he is here. My terms are non negotiable.
Now, in the meantime. I've just posted a question on vpFREE, the site that has the biggest concentration of professional video poker players. I've asked them what are the chances of being at breakeven after one million hands playing 7/5 Bonus Poker, a 98.01% game with a variance of 20.75. I'm hoping to get a response out of Dunbar Dre who created Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. Anyways, I'll post the results here if and when I get a response.
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