He has proven steady income. That income is based on the EV that he plays off. Stop your nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Printable View
He has proven steady income. That income is based on the EV that he plays off. Stop your nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Not only is the one minute play worth an average $15 profit but I bet only one nickel at a time for an average of 36 spins. The cost to spin the play off is 13 coins (65 cents) but the return is about $16 so about a $15 profit per play. Moneywise it's the smallest play I have. I exploit a dozen different games in Montana. But percentagewise it's the biggest play I have. A $15 profit on a 65 cent investment. That's a return of 2300% for one minute.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Stop your double talk. For all we know he had 20% down and got a no qualifying mortgage.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmHe has proven steady income. That income is based on the EV that he plays off. Stop your nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If he did have to qualify it was based on actual income and down payment.
Stop this bullshit about EV. It doesn't exist in the real world.
Excellent. Mr Boz did you see this?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmNot only is the one minute play worth an average $15 profit but I bet only one nickel at a time for an average of 36 spins. The cost to spin the play off is 13 coins (65 cents) but the return is about $16 so about a $15 profit per play. Moneywise it's the smallest play I have. I exploit a dozen different games in Montana. But percentagewise it's the biggest play I have. A $15 profit on a 65 cent investment. That's a return of 2300% for one minute.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The casino loves your pension. It's how they pay the bills. And you do to because it comes in installments and you can't blow it all at once in the casino. That's what would happen if you received your pension in a lump sum. You would blow it all gambling in a New York minute.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
yo is this guy for real with this can't pay the bills with EV nonsense
PLEASE tell me ONE BILL you paid with EV? I'm waiting.Quote:
Originally Posted by DJatc
Welcome DJatc. And I am afraid he is. :rolleyes:
Kewlj why don't you tell me one bill you paid with EV?
How about you Mickey, just one bill paid with EV?
"Banks don't give me mortgage based on my EV."
*Has negative EV*
mans not hot
In round numbers I play off about $5000 a month in expectation (EV). I pay all my bills, rent, utilities, insurance, fuel, motels, meals, and sundry other expenses from the EV I play off every month. The actual results come in pretty close to expectation, a little more or a little less.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Hello to everyone. I feel like I'm entering a battle zone by joining, but after being a non member reader for a few years I finally found a thread where I know more than a passing amount about. (I play blackjack with my husband on our bi-monthly trips to Vegas also, and while he just wants to PLAY, I have a strong math background and I consider myself a good counter).
But my real comments right now have to do with this. We lived in Boulder City for about 8 years, and I was a mortgage specialist at Bank of America in the city. I still work for that bank but in another city and in another capacity. In short, I was instrumental in the final approval & underwriting of non-commercial home loans.
What caught my eye in this thread was where someone said they were a professional gambler and they used 5 years of tax returns as support for securing their mortgage. (I'm assuming they showed positive income for each of those years?)
Here's the issue; naturally in a city like Las Vegas we saw many applications from people who gave Pro Gambler as their occupation, and past returns were required. But this in and of itself was insufficient to secure a loan, no matter the amount of past income shown or the amount of loan-to-purchase.
In short, what the underwriters look for is the ability to pay back money loaned, and even though multiple years of past income is presented, we never saw a loan approved with the promise of repayment because an applicant said they would do that by gambling alone. That's like an investor showing success in the market as a means of a down payment, then expecting the loan to be approved going forward with profits from a hopefully rising stock exchange. Not going to happen.
What I have seen a lot of, and that may be the case here, is people who claim Pro Gambler as a profession and who also have other income because of a skill, situation, or such. For example, a part time job, social security income, disability income, annuity, and so forth. But if any application came in with professional gambler being their only source of past and expected future income, it became an automatic denial. In other words, an applicant must show continued expected income in a field where, should they continue on that skill path, absolute income (IE, the ability to have a real income to repay from) is verifiable. Gambling in any manner does not meet this requirement.
Hope this helps. I know there's a lot of words thrown around on forums by people who want to be known as gambling experts, but I'll try to keep my postings to that which I'm knowledgeable about. I'll talk about my blackjack play when I get home from work.
The reason that some problem gamblers turn to family or embezzlement for more money to gamble.
You're still giving me a run-around answer so I'm going to help you out. EV is expected value which comes before the bet is resolved. As an example you bet $10 and your EV with a match play coupon or cashback or comp points is now X-percent. That's EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIn round numbers I play off about $5000 a month in expectation (EV). I pay all my bills, rent, utilities, insurance, fuel, motels, meals, and sundry other expenses from the EV I play off every month. The actual results come in pretty close to expectation, a little more or a little less.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
After the bet is resolved you have your result. You might have lost the bet and have zero dollars or you might have won the bet and now have, for example, $24.09 in combined cash plus points.
That $24 is not EV but is now real money and if you can cash out the cents that's real money too.
But EV is never real money. It is only what you expect a bet to be worth win or lose.
And by the way some losing bets do have an EV if for example there are points or rebates given for your play, and this includes comp dollars. You might lose $8800 in real money but if you're getting $88 back as cashback or comps that becomes something of real value.
But NEVER is EV an actual currency.
And, welcome girlfriday to the forum. Thank you for posting. I only hope you are treated with respect.
Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
I can understand skepticism about copies of tax returns: they can be faked.
But what if in addition to tax returns showing an average net income well within qualifying range the borrower also presented with five or more years of bank records, which mirror and substantiate the amount of income claimed on the return?
In no way is a professional gambler going to be treated differently than any other self employed person when it comes to getting a mortgage.
The lack of knowledge here is overwhelming. BANKS CAN AND DO VERIFY YOUR TAX RETURNS. As a matter of fact there are new IRS rules for this process that are being disputed by the banks because these new rules are slowing the mortgage process.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVQuote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
I can understand skepticism about copies of tax returns: they can be faked.
But what if in addition to tax returns showing an average net income well within qualifying range the borrower also presented with five or more years of bank records, which mirror and substantiate the amount of income claimed on the return?
Again it's very possible that a gambler with a substantial down payment was given a "non qualifying" mortgage. These mortgages are offered by various lenders who may be outside traditional banks. I've done Infomercials for these lenders. If you want a recommendation PM me.
It depends on the lender. See my response to MisterV above.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
http://homeguides.sfgate.com/mortgag...irs-49519.html
Info about banks verifying your tax returns.
Well of course lenders contact the IRS to try to verify whether the return proferred matches the one filed.
That does nothing to verify that the info reported on the return was accurate; something more, something "objective" is needed.
Assume the borrower owns a small cash-intense business; he'll not receive W-2 income as his only source of income comes from cash paid in by customers.
He deposits it daily in the bank, and has bank records to substantiate it.
Examination of bank records is a viable alternative to proving regular income, and it should suffice for a professional gambler.
I have mortgage companies that will give you a mortgage based only on the cash flow shown by your bank deposits. That's a totally different kind of loan program And something a business owner or self employed person might use.
That had nothing to do with the issue of tax returns. If you are submitting tax returns they will be verified, just as banks will verify your checking account statements if that's the loan program you are applying for.
There are ways for a gambler to get a mortgage and again the easiest way is with a substantial down payment for a "non qualifying loan" which simply means there is enough equity in the house that the lender will assume the risk you won't go into foreclosure.
It works with car loans too. If you have no credit but put down a big down payment of 50% anyone will sell you a car.
Girl Friday
that sounds reasonable and true. I have no doubt that without other collateral that a bank would not accept tax returns from gambling as the prime reason to give the go ahead for handing over hundreds of thousands of dollars.Even if god came down to verify the accuracy of the returns.
Even if the returns are verifiable....there is every reason to believe that all gamblers can go ion extended losing streaks, where unlike someone who loses their job..the gambler not only has no income coming in...but they are losing money on top of having to pay all their regular expenses.
Every bank gambles to a certain extent that based on expected income and cash reserves, and attachable assets and downpayment...that they will get their money. But banks in the end dont want to own your home...they rather not even get in that positions. They dont want to have to go through lawyers and courts. So what you say rings true.
I also believe that KJ makes consistent money from gambling, and I also believe he got a mortgage. But I dont know all the background behind the scenes assets or income between him and his husband. And its none of my business.
I totally believe you when you say that if there is verifiable 5 years worth of income from a gambler, no one in their right mind would lend them money just based on that. I wouldnt even for 10 percent interest. but accumulated assets like IRAs, or annuities which can be liquidated in case of emergency, and the collection of monthly benefits, along with a sizeable down payment might makes the decision easier.
the thing about gamblers is that they can show the bank that they have 100k in the bank.....but in a few months that can be cut in half based on work related events. Because the money in the bank is not sitting there for a rainy day like people getting pay checks....its sitting there to possibly be lost at "work"
Casinos rely on bank records when determining whether to extend a line of credit, and if so, in what amount, so yeah, bank records account for something.
http://alanbestbuys.com/id430.html
One of my clients. He does mortgages based on stated income, on bank deposits, on cash flow. Be prepared for a higher rate. There are also hard money lenders.
Banks only offer a slice of the products available.
But the bottom line is if you think your tax returns are not verified you're dreaming. Everything is verified. But put down a big deposit and mortgage lenders will gladly do business with a gambler. Just don't claim you have EV DOLLARS because they live in the real world. LOL
I have had a line of credit forever. However, when I was playing craps for a living, one day when I asked for a marker I was denied. I went to the credit office and they had done their annual review and I had changed banks so they found the account I previously had was closed.
So I had to fill out a new app. Problem where it asked employment I didn't want to put Gambler so I put retired. I had to give them not only my bank account but some brokerage as well to reinstate the line of credit. Of course, I then changed brokerage as well as I don't like them knowing too much.
true and you have to be willing in that situation to be paying extra high interest rates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
no credit and poor credit people have higher rates of default,,,and that is taken into account in rates
My parents had a furniture store in a poor neighborhood when i was a kid....and they financed the sales. The finance charges were sky high. Not because they loved to fuck with the poor people.....but because doctors, lawyers, donald trump.....did not walk into the store to buy furniture. So there was just a pool of poor people...and hence a higher rate of default. So someone has to pay for that.
Same with the mortgage companies and car dealerships that will give you the loan with just a large downpayment.......are charging you extra for that.
I am going to go out on a limb, and guess....having no expertise in this field....that a full time gambler or a full time walmart cashier, or full time warehouse worker or full time nurse who put down 40 percent in order to get non qualifying loan is paying a higher percentage than someone who opens their books and has proper assets documented that satisfy getting lower rates at other estyablishments.
you can get anything for a price.
So then, to conclude: the question was whether a bank would make a mortgage based on EV.
The answer: yes, although it would likely be a "nonqualifying" loan.
Whatever.
Yes I did. But I don’t see it the way you did. I believe even though you didn’t say it, you were trying to make a point about the play as BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonExcellent. Mr Boz did you see this?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmNot only is the one minute play worth an average $15 profit but I bet only one nickel at a time for an average of 36 spins. The cost to spin the play off is 13 coins (65 cents) but the return is about $16 so about a $15 profit per play. Moneywise it's the smallest play I have. I exploit a dozen different games in Montana. But percentagewise it's the biggest play I have. A $15 profit on a 65 cent investment. That's a return of 2300% for one minute.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickey made it clear that isn’t a play can’t play consistently.
No. EV is not real money. But if you have enough real money either going into a bank account or made as a down payment you as a gambler could get a loan. EV is nothing more than a wish and a hope. Drop it already.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I didn't say anything about it being BS. That's you attacking me which is Par for the course here. I just wanted Mickey to confirm and HE DID.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozYes I did. But I don’t see it the way you did. I believe even though you didn’t say it, you were trying to make a point about the play as BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonExcellent. Mr Boz did you see this?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Mickey made it clear that isn’t a play can’t play consistently.
Now my only question is, why stop?
Yeah....no idea how casinos survived this long with their +EV. :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonNo. EV is not real money. But if you have enough real money either going into a bank account or made as a down payment you as a gambler could get a loan. EV is nothing more than a wish and a hope. Drop it already.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
To know who survived is to know who had a good thing going. Hindsight. Positive expectation even over the long run doesn't guarantee anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
The one that fail, fail for other reasons. NOT because they were losing in the gaming department.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill YungTo know who survived is to know who had a good thing going. Hindsight. Positive expectation even over the long run doesn't guarantee anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Jbjb are you really this stubborn and stupid? Do you understand that EV is not real money but a casino and a player will use EV to forecast their return? It's reallysimple: they are separate. You can't substitute EV for actual money. Now keep searching for abandoned multipliers.
Obviously a gambler cannot offer to repay a loan with EV, that is not the point.
The point is that an AP playing with +EV can and often does earn enough money from AP to qualify for a loan, without showing a W-2.
What does this question "why stop?" mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI didn't say anything about it being BS. That's you attacking me which is Par for the course here. I just wanted Mickey to confirm and HE DID.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozYes I did. But I don’t see it the way you did. I believe even though you didn’t say it, you were trying to make a point about the play as BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickey made it clear that isn’t a play can’t play consistently.
Now my only question is, why stop?
I don’t see it as attacking but we can disagree. You make it easy based on your views and wanting to argue everything. You can say what you did was just his words but there is no doubt you putting KJ’s post in your signature is a tweak at him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI didn't say anything about it being BS. That's you attacking me which is Par for the course here. I just wanted Mickey to confirm and HE DID.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozYes I did. But I don’t see it the way you did. I believe even though you didn’t say it, you were trying to make a point about the play as BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickey made it clear that isn’t a play can’t play consistently.
Now my only question is, why stop?
Anybody with money can qualify for a loan.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
I ask why stop because you've hit on a gold mine: $15 a minute or $900 an hour.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat does this question "why stop?" mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI didn't say anything about it being BS. That's you attacking me which is Par for the course here. I just wanted Mickey to confirm and HE DID.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Now my only question is, why stop?
Glad to be back and see such a discussion, however flighty and off topic it may be. But I'll address everything I've seen. I was an actuary at an insurance company prior to joining B of A, so I believe I understand the math dialogue in these discussions.
When someone files a loan app as a professional gambler without any other income source going forward, no matter if he or she argues that they are an ap with big ev promised, no loan ever gets approved on that alone. To the gentleman who asserted that applying as a pro gambler is no different than anyone who files as self-employed, you are mistaken. If a self employed person shows business and income stability, then it would safely be assumed his income would continue going forward because it is a business with real revenue, meaning real income. A gambler would expect to secure a loan based on things going his or her way and not the casino's way, thereby leaving future income up to chance. That means an automatic denial. As I mentioned, a steady, real income source in addition to expected gambling income would be required in other to have any chance at securing a home loan. Those are typically tough in their own right, and for obvious reasons. One more point to remember, loan officers and underwriters are like most business people, irs auditors, and so forth. They don't believe anyone wins on a consistent basis gambling. Anyone. So that's what you're up against from the start of the process.
Now I'd like to address this issue revolving around the theory of EV. I believe we all can agree that EV represents something expected, but not certain, in the future, and it is never actual money right now. I did read about the person who said they had the best EV day in a whole, but unfortunately they list $8k at the same time. There us something to that, but in large part, it does not pass the reality check.
For instance, I believe I play blackjack with a very slight edge. Always. But if I play for 11 hours today and lose money, the +ev I went in with, even though it was injected with a dose of hope, means nothing for future sessions. I believe the person who said it was a good thing is only trying to make him/herself feel better about the loss. Yes, the person can proclaim their having hours of positive expectation as something great, but as far as future gambling sessions are concerned, the same thing could happen time and time again. +EV can in fact have a negative cash flow value attached to it. The good and positive expectation never has, had, or is meant to have any real monetary value attached. If you understood the intricacies of whole life and term insurance policies and their differences, you'd understand what I'm trying to explain.
I'll try to get to playing blackjack and some of the comments I've read here about it. My knowledge is good, but probably nowhere near some of the experts here.
Then how do you explain the fact that KJ, an AP with no other source of income, qualified for and got a purchase money loan for a house in Las Vegas?Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
Maybe the bankers in sin city aren't as hidebound, fussy and short-sighted as you portray them.
Las Vegas has a long history of contrarian banking, e.g. E. Parry Thomas loaning millions to mobsters running Las Vegas casinos when no other bank would touch them.
Maybe he got a non qualifying loan with a 20% down payment and didn't even have to reveal anything?
Average price of a Vegas home is about $200,000. 20% down is $40,000. He claims he won a million dollars, right?
Girlfriday you are smashing the holy grail on this forum with your comments about kewlj and his claim about positive EV connected to his $8800 loss. Be ready. And again thank you.
She has smashed nothing, Alan.
AP's can get purchase money loans in Las Vegas without showing any other source of income.
End of discussion.
I'm sure you are aware that things have tightened considerably in the home loan approval/underwriting business since 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVThen how do you explain the fact that KJ, an AP with no other source of income, qualified for and got a purchase money loan for a house in Las Vegas?Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
Maybe the bankers in sin city aren't as hidebound, fussy and short-sighted as you portray them.
Las Vegas has a long history of contrarian banking, e.g. E. Parry Thomas loaning millions to mobsters running Las Vegas casinos when no other bank would touch them.
KJ the AP you mentioned: where did you get that info from? Did he write this on this forum or are you personal friends and or family? Did he identify the loan source?
Not to be negative, but what you said goes against industry policy. That's what guides my belief system. I was in Nevada and I never saw any sin city special deals, at least from my bank, that you talk about.
Just in case the counselor missed the questions....
Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
KJ, a member of this forum, said he got a loan to buy a home in Las Vegas.
Ask him for details, I'm sure he'd just LOVE to tell you (he's like that).
I'm an ap myself so I'm not trying to smash anything. I thought I could offer insight on aforementioned mortgage loans having been knee deep in that business and in that city. I realize not everyone will understand, agree, or want to understand or agree. So be it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The EV discussion is basic math theory, which I understand. It also can be construed several ways, which is where I believe the disconnect comes from. It may well create nasty arguments like I've seen a lot of here, but I'll only provide info that I know without the fighting.
The arguments get nasty when the APs get frustrated and start name-calling, and the discussions deteriorate from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
He said he has gotten two loans to buy houses in Las Vegas. And I think he said he put big downs on them.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Oh boy. :rolleyes: Alan you really are obsessed with me aren't you? :(
My first mortgage in 20xx, was with xxxxx. I put 40k down on a condo just off the strip that sold for 89k. It was an auction. I was in Philadelphia at the time. I bid on the internet, and when my bid was accepted, I immediately put 40k down and arranged a mortgage online, with Superior, who I just picked out of an online service. Everything was done online before I even traveled to Vegas, including downloading financial documents and electronic signatures. That mortgage was paid off in xxxx, when I sold the condo.
In 20xx, I got a mortgage from my bank, xxxxx for the home that I currently live in. I put 10% down on the home. I was prepared to put more, but it wasn't required. So, I don't know about Bank of America's policies, as per girlfriday's posts, but xxxx was happy to give me a mortgage, based on my income as an AP. The mortgage was in my name only based on my credit worthiness and income. I don't know if it made a difference but I did have 6 figures in accounts at xxxx at the time.
That mortgage was a 15 year mortgage that I paid off in early.
KJ has made well over a million dollars in 14 years of playing blackjack. He started with a 4K bankroll and slowly built from there. He doesn't work everyday but 14 years is about 5000 days. He's had hundreds of losing days, even days where he has lost 8K or more. But he has still out run the game by well over a million dollars. He's damn good at what he does. He ramps up his bets in the big +EV situations. Short term negative variance causes a big losing day sometimes. But short term positive variance creates big winning days too. In the long run it all smothes out.Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
EV built Las Vegas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, you calling anybody, least jbjb stupid, is 'priceless'. Alan Mendelson, you sir are the most ignorant person on the topic of advantage play, that I have come across. I am using the true definition of ignorant, lacking knowledge or awareness. I have no doubt you are a well educated and somewhat 'book smart' man, but you are completely clueless, of almost anything having to do with advantage play. And you have proven that time and time and TIME again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I also take exception to the trolling games that you play. I am not going to go as far as to call you a troll, but you most certainly do play games, trolling games, on this forum. It's nauseating. I am really quite sick of it. :mad:
Your games and agenda become crystal clear, when I take the time, to post in detail addressing your concerns, as I did in post #239 in this thread, and because you have no answer, you "gloss over" what you don't want to hear. You ignore it and continue on your way with your "agenda".
I am done with you Alan. I don't mean that I am going to block or ignore you. I may even respond to things you say. But I am done treating you like a reasonable person, because you are not. You are playing games. I am just not going to waste my time and effort on you. So do your thing Alan. Everything you do and post should come with twilight theme music. :rolleyes:
I have no idea why anyone would give that type of information out online, but what do I know?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
You mean "Twilight Zone" theme music.
So did seriously threatening to beat people up? Not so different from your "hero", of a few weeks ago, who promptly turned right around and said it was all a big joke, after a bunch of people called him on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmEV built Las Vegas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Fourteen years is a lot of time make shit up, get tossed off the major blackjack forums, and while away the time bickering endlessly over who said and did what to whom at the lesser ones.
And you guys want instant credibility on the internet?
Let him keep thinking I'm stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAlan, you calling anybody, least jbjb stupid, is 'priceless'. Alan Mendelson, you sir are the most ignorant person on the topic of advantage play, that I have come across. I am using the true definition of ignorant, lacking knowledge or awareness. I have no doubt you are a well educated and somewhat 'book smart' man, but you are completely clueless, of almost anything having to do with advantage play. And you have proven that time and time and TIME again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I also take exception to the trolling games that you play. I am not going to go as far as to call you a troll, but you most certainly do play games, trolling games, on this forum. It's nauseating. I am really quite sick of it. :mad:
Your games and agenda become crystal clear, when I take the time, to post in detail addressing your concerns, as I did in post #239 in this thread, and because you have no answer, you "gloss over" what you don't want to hear. You ignore it and continue on your way with your "agenda".
I am done with you Alan. I don't mean that I am going to block or ignore you. I may even respond to things you say. But I am done treating you like a reasonable person, because you are not. You are playing games. I am just not going to waste my time and effort on you. So do your thing Alan. Everything you do and post should come with twilight theme music. :rolleyes:
P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers. :cool:
Alan, your answer here is proof that you don't have a clue about advantage plays. The game in question is a video line game with a banking feature on it. There is a cloverleaf symbol on the 5th reel. When it lands on the line there is a counter that moves from zero to 1. The cloverleaf lands on the line an average of every 36 spins. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a second time the counter moves to 2. When the cloverleaf lands on the line a third time you go into a bonus round. It's a positive play when I find the counter on 2. How did it get on 2? Some ploppie did it then walked. I only have to catch the cloverleaf one time to get the bonus. Once I catch the cloverleaf and get the bonus the counter resets to zero and the game is back in negative expectation so I cash out. I might find a dozen plays a month but it is just one of about a dozen games I exploit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Good for you. I hope that you have a better day, tomorrow. Better than whatever you made, today. And that you post it up, again.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbLet him keep thinking I'm stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJAlan, you calling anybody, least jbjb stupid, is 'priceless'. Alan Mendelson, you sir are the most ignorant person on the topic of advantage play, that I have come across. I am using the true definition of ignorant, lacking knowledge or awareness. I have no doubt you are a well educated and somewhat 'book smart' man, but you are completely clueless, of almost anything having to do with advantage play. And you have proven that time and time and TIME again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I also take exception to the trolling games that you play. I am not going to go as far as to call you a troll, but you most certainly do play games, trolling games, on this forum. It's nauseating. I am really quite sick of it. :mad:
Your games and agenda become crystal clear, when I take the time, to post in detail addressing your concerns, as I did in post #239 in this thread, and because you have no answer, you "gloss over" what you don't want to hear. You ignore it and continue on your way with your "agenda".
I am done with you Alan. I don't mean that I am going to block or ignore you. I may even respond to things you say. But I am done treating you like a reasonable person, because you are not. You are playing games. I am just not going to waste my time and effort on you. So do your thing Alan. Everything you do and post should come with twilight theme music. :rolleyes:
P.S. We made $37,650 today from only $8000 in "EV" on blackjack from one of our favorite dealers. :cool:
Big AP with money? Have that written in your epitaph or whatever. Anything to "prove" it to anyone but yourself.
Thank you for the kind words of support Sir MickeyCrimm (I have knighted thee). :)Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
The only thing not quite true is "the made well over a million dollars from blackjack". My AP total is now just over a million dollars, but only 80% of that is blackjack. :rolleyes: It's a technicality I guess, but kind of important to me, because blackjack is my passion. I look forward to the day hopefully in two years or so, where I can say "I made a million dollars from blackjack". And it's not because a million dollars is some great amount of wealth....it's not anymore, BUT it is a milestone, and it was my goal when I started, so I will be proud to say that when that day comes. But I haven't earned that right yet.
Whatever you say GrimReaper.
Both mortgages are closed.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Yep that's it. :) Perfect fit for Alan. 18 y.o.'s in a row could have been a twilight zone episode. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
You mean "Twilight Zone" theme music.
Likely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
"A lot" is more like it. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJLikely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Why? The comparison here is between result and expected value, which would show the variance.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJLikely something a little "stronger" edge than card counting.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Like the story of Mickey's slot play that, supposedly, if we believe another big AP, obviously didn't happen. Unless, of course, it happens only once a year. Right, Mickey?:confused:
Well congrats, jbjb. Always nice to get out of the starting gate to a new year with positive variance. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
My blackjack partner had a 5 figure day to day, as well. But I am talking about just 5 figures, not mid 5 figures. It was only his 4th such day of his career, so he is feeling pretty good about himself. :)
I, on the other hand had a 2 figure day. But it was upper 2 figures. ($87) ;)
I guess Bill Yung is going to pick up the slack of the anti-AP agenda guys, taking shots at various AP's and adding nothing constructive. You anti-Ap guys seem to have a deep bench. :(
Nice. Yeah we ran above our expectation for a few reasons. We'll run below in the future as well and we expect this. Even if we didn't have this opportunity, I'd still rather pick off abandoned multipliers and have an EV of +$20 or so then to have an EV of -$1000 playing $5 bonus poker all day. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWell congrats, jbjb. Always nice to get out of the starting gate to a new year with positive variance. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
My blackjack partner had a 5 figure day to day, as well. But I am talking about just 5 figures, not mid 5 figures. It was only his 4th such day of his career, so he is feeling pretty good about himself. :)
I, on the other hand had a 2 figure day. But it was upper 2 figures. ($87) ;)
They're jealous losers. Let them cry.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
But you can't bank or spend EV. Why is this so difficult for you to understand?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmEV built Las Vegas.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Having EV is like a weather forecast... ask Shell if they'll let you pay for a tank of gas with EV. Ask kewlj if he ever made a mortgage payment with EV.
The answer is yes. Every dollar I earn playing blackjack comes from positive expectation play. That is +EV play. And some of those dollars paid some mortgage payments. Same answer other AP's have given, like RS yesterday, to which you issued the classy reply of profanity.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The problem is that you (alan) don't even understand what +EV is or means.
Paying off a mortgage early can be bad financially.
Lets say you get a mortgage today, 15 year for APR 3.6
The inflation rate is 2,1.
leaving you effectively paying 1.5 percent.
On the 3.6 percent you get to deduct 35 percent of the interest which is the majority of the payment at the beginning
Plus you can keep that money that you would otherwuse pay off the loan with and collect yourown interest....lets say 1.5 percent in something safe or aggressively split it between stocks and bonds...possibly getting 5 percent.
you come out on the plus side...But if you have a crap rate....then by all means pay it off.
Kewlj I am totally flabbergasted here. Let's see if I can sort it out:
1. Your EV is what you expect to win when you play. Do you agree?
2. You pay your bills with US currency. Do you agree?
3. EV is not a currency accepted by any business or consumer. Do you agree?
Please respond to those three questions. Yes or no to each, please.
This is Alan being idiotic. He either has no clue what this discussion is really about, or he is just playing games as he always does. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
This is another despicable post by you ...you should be banned.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
NO, You can't spend EV, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. Luckily good AP's eventually make cash while playing +EV situations.
Depending on what they are playing they may make their EV within minutes, hours, days, months. AP's can also make far more than their EV. If you took all the AP's who ever played and added all their play together, it would average out really close to what everyone's accumulated EV should be. Some guys will have went broke by playing over their BR or just because life got in the way. Some guys will have made a huge score on something and they will have way more money than their EV should be. If they stay at safe levels there won't be enough time for everything to average out with them personally(also since it happend in the past it won't effect the future). But you can bet your ass some AP ran extreemly bad at one time and he will not have enough time to catch up to what his EV should be. But some where, at some time, with someone it will have all avraged out. AP's are no diffent than the casinos, they just don't get as much volume in.
There are ways to help avoid being in situations where you will be at the extreme ends of the variance. One can run really bad but still make money. It happens all the time on plays. One guy runs bad and makes only half his EV while another guy runs good and makes double his EV.
+EV is a means to a happy ending.
Hell, I'm just a ploppie and even I know that.
The arguments get nasty when brain dead anti-APs don't understand and get frustrated and start name-calling, and the discussions deteriorate from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThe arguments get nasty when the APs get frustrated and start name-calling, and the discussions deteriorate from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday