Grochowski on "advantage video poker"

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

If you want to talk about benefits, most benefit packages are worth between 25% and 35% of salary. So an AP making $100,000 a year would need at least $25,000 more to buy a benefits package fitting a $100,000 salary.

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Where did anyone say that APing and earning XXX amount of money is equivalent to working for XYZ corp and earning the same XXX salary + the retirement benefits that would go with that? Just like anyone in business for themselves an AP's salary has to be adjusted for lack of health/retirement benefits. I just don't see where anyone claimed otherwise. But it seems like you are just looking for ways to 'knock' AP's, Alan. Just seems like you have a real bug up your ass about AP's. Next I would expect to hear the "contributes nothing to society" argument. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by blackhole

You must be a special type of BJ player, especially when most AP BJ players feel the belt has been tighten so much it’s no longer worth the effort. With odd changes, amount of decks, the cuts, shuffling machines, pit and endless new surveillance knowledge (to include face recognition technology) totaling focusing on cheaters and AP players, your still capable of pulling down for over ten years already, working the same different casinos in Vegas, a decent salary.

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There are two separate issues in this paragraph. One is deteriorating BJ conditions and the second is pit/surveillance advances in technology and knowledge. I will address deteriorating conditions here and save pit/surveillance for the following quote.

I often hear the argument about how BJ conditions have and continue to deteriorate. But it is often the older generation BJ players and AP's that make those statements, as they are very frustrated that conditions are not what they were in the 80's and 90's. Of course they (and you) are correct, conditions are worse than 20+ years ago. You cannot sit at a single table, with a low house edge of less than .3% and spread all night long at that same table and call it a days work. So I certainly see why older players are so negative, many have given up the game and/or moved on to other things, in and outside of AP.

However those of us that started our careers in the past 15 years are not nearly as frustrated with games like H17, that produce a house edge of double what it was 20+ years ago. It is all we have ever known. This is what we grew up playing and learned to beat. Instead of sitting at the same table all night, we know we have to jump around avoiding at least some of the negative counts. And we know we have to employ larger spreads, which require a bigger BR and will result in more variance and bigger swings. So we aren't as frustrated. This is all we know. I mean if you want to provide me with a time machine, I will gladly go back 25 years and play better conditions and not have to jump around all night. :) But in the absence of that, I play what is available and I learned to beat.

The mathematics still works exactly the same today. It is just a little bigger house advantage which means you have to attack the game differently, with larger spreads and escaping at least some of the negative counts (wonging). Now there are some conditions today that are unplayable (at least to me), like 6:5 games and Continuing Shuffling Machine (CSM) games (not to be confused with Automatic Shuffling Machines (ASM) which are very playable). Here in Vegas, both these conditions have remained limited to the lower end games, the $5 and $10 games. The $25 and above tables that I play are minimally effected....so far.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Doing it today certainly is much tougher since the casinos are squeezing your nuts much tighter.

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Yep it is tougher than it was 25 years ago, not that I would, know, since today's situations are all I have ever known. Pit and surveillance knowledge and technology have advanced. This is a second reason why we have to jump around as opposed to sitting and playing one table all night. It isn't so much that we are trying to trick them, more about comfort and tolerance levels. Short sessions generally equals smaller wins (and losses), but particularly wins. You avoid those big wins and cashouts that draw attention and someone has to answer for.

A player today must learn the tolerance levels of different casinos and different shift. That is how you achieve longevity.

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Originally Posted by blackhole

Now, that’s a good for you story, and one to be proud of.

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Thank you, and I am. I don't say that in a cocky way. The edges are smaller and you have to adjust your plan of attack from 20+ years ago and I have. Few BJ players today bother. Most move on to other things. Many of those players consider me a dinosaur. lol. That's ok. :) I am proud and so very happy, that I can earn a living playing a game that I still love.

Get real. The only reason you hang around casinos is because you like collecting food stamps, free rent, Medicaid, and paying no taxes....and you somehow are able to ignore the sickness of eyeing all the young men who flutter by you.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Get real. The only reason you hang around casinos is because you like collecting food stamps, free rent, Medicaid, and paying no taxes....and you somehow are able to ignore the sickness of eyeing all the young men who flutter by you.

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You are one very angry and bitter old dude. The path to happiness is not just belittling and tearing down others. I hope you find some real happiness and in life.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The path to happiness is not just belittling and tearing down others. I hope you find some real happiness and in life.

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I thought you blocked him...now you are counseling him?

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Originally Posted by redietz

KJ is too smart to argue with someone about the efficacy of facial recognition software.

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No I am not. :rolleyes:

Recently there was a national news story of airport FRS identifying a man who has been on the run, living with new identity for 30 years. That was impressive. But that same expertise and efficacy does not seem to have made it's way to the casino industry. I have a friend that works the pits of one of the strip casinos who constantly tells me the FRS is not very good and rarely identifies anyone.

Perhaps government technology is at a higher level than what the casino industry uses? :confused: Or more probably, it has something to do with the expertise of the people using the software. Technology is only as good as the people using it! And casino surveillance is usually spread pretty thin, underpaid, and likely under trained.

However advances in technology, and the expertise of those operating it, remains a concern for me going forward. :(

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Originally Posted by coach belly

I thought you blocked him...now you are counseling him?

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Unfortunately when I visit the site prior to logging in I will see his posts. Only once I log in, do I not see them. But thanks for reminding me, that he is just not worth interacting with. :)

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Get real. The only reason you hang around casinos is because you like collecting food stamps, free rent, Medicaid, and paying no taxes....and you somehow are able to ignore the sickness of eyeing all the young men who flutter by you.

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You are one very angry and bitter old dude. The path to happiness is not just belittling and tearing down others. I hope you find some real happiness and in life.

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Not being married to, and having to look at Sasquatch`s twin sister every day he won`t :eek:....Belly`s still happy tho, he still has the boys HS locker room :)

When people respond (quote) to Rob Stringer, it'd be awesome if you could delete the content of the quote or just not quote at all. Or better yet, be like KJ and me, and just block him. :)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines. This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker. The numbers are all relative.

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Yes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.

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It's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces.

If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year.

And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.

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In 8/5 Bonus it is the 2-Pair and Jacks or Better that make the majority of the "return" on the game. The bigger hands just give you a little boost.

Mickey's wishing & hoping from a barstool doesn't alter history. But he does present a good picture on why he shouldn't be asserting things on a play strategy he really knows nothing about.

I hit one $100k royal in my ten years of pro play. I also hit multiple $10 royals and a lot at $5 and below because by design, that's where the majority of my play was. It is not a strategy that depends on or even requires royals to be successful. It relies on the quads--esp. the ones that pay 200/400/600/800 and more. And that's the main reason the special plays which deviate from optimal strategy were developed.

If you recall mickey (or at least after your next gulp) the large bankroll of $57,200 doesn't need a whole lot of luck to achieve a 5%-of-br win goal--which is reachable with quads in the majority of cases. The royals came, and they came a little more often than the math books (and redietz' university professors) say they should. But that only sheds more light on the fact that I regularly state: "yes, the devastating losses will come, but the huge winners far more than make up for them". And all the while, the smaller winning sessions ($2500 - $5k, $6k, etc.) just keep on coming.

Please pay attention.

I am wondering how anyone can really make any kind of real money nowadays playing blackjack. The casinos are just too paranoid, to the point where they either kick you for the slightest suspicion of counting, or simply degrade the game to where it's unbeatable.

I found that, with the exception of casinos in out-of-the-way places such as Puerto Rico, any attempt at counting on my part gets noticed too quickly, and I'm kicked from the game.

It got frustrating to the point where I've mostly quit blackjack. Also, the consolidation of casinos under MGM and/or Caesars banners gave me fewer choices, as I do not want a ban at either of those property groups.

Regarding this forum and APs, I want to say that I sincerely appreciate any APs who wish to post here.

If we get enough of them, I'll even consider making a private AP-only section where people can trade knowledge or discuss potential angles.

For the moment, I am happy that we have some actual APs posting here, and they should be treated with respect for what they've accomplished, rather than mocked or doubted.

Sure, there are phony APs who claim to be winners yet actually play losing or overly-high-variance strategies.

Sure, there are APs with gambling issues or insufficient bankrolls who end up going broke.

However, there is a very real subset of "gamblers" out there who have beaten the casinos for years, and that's a claim few can make.

It is true that it's getting much harder to beat casinos nowadays. Comps have been degraded, loopholes have been closed, and perhaps most disheartening, the "small losing non-AP" is being dismissed as not worth the casino's time (except at very high limits), thus trickling down and harming the APs who have found ways to turn those small-loss games into winners.

It is foolish to approach gambling results with, "If I won today, I made a good bet". That's what casinos want you to think. They don't want you to lose every time you play. They want you to win just enough to believe you have a chance, but to lose enough above that to make your business worthwhile.

Casinos detest real APs because they know they will lose to them in the long run. Even when casinos get lucky and beat an AP long term, they know that the AP community as a whole has crushed them.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I am wondering how anyone can really make any kind of real money nowadays playing blackjack. The casinos are just too paranoid, to the point where they either kick you for the slightest suspicion of counting, or simply degrade the game to where it's unbeatable.

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That's funny...you said almost the same exact thing one year ago, when I posted here (the bet what thread). At that time, you asked how I was able to make a living in these current conditions. I recently replied. (while you were on vacation I guess.)

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Regarding this forum and APs, I want to say that I sincerely appreciate any APs who wish to post here.

If we get enough of them, I'll even consider making a private AP-only section where people can trade knowledge or discuss potential angles.

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What a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:

1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?

And the hits just keep on coming...

Dan Druff,

I know this is your forum and you call the shots, plus you could toss me with a simple click of your mouse. Since the left wing liberal meatballs recently confirmed the First Amendment only exists when it’s beneficial for their talking points; your comment above stating ALLEGED “actual AP’s posting here, should be treated with respect for what they’ve accomplished, rather than mocked or doubted” confirms the First Amendment is also not welcome here.

Most people here are grown adults (most) that know firsthand what it costs to raise a family safe and securely to adulthood, (or even just themselves) plus to secure their own security during their senior years when they no longer can work. When you compound that goal with the additional ridiculous costs to achieve the same in today’s market, you must agree it’s a tough and ruthless grind for most.

I’m not going to go over all the factual unavoidable known expenses that come with any normal lifetime. Most here already know firsthand what that is and what’s involved.

I have a hard time believing even BJ in today’s casinos is a good enough source of income to achieve this lifetime goal for most. The key word here is lifetime. Kewlj insists this is possible, and maybe it is for him. But, trying to convince me the amount of alleged BJ AP’s all over these different gambling forums are pulling 100k and much more out of casinos not only for over a decade already, but plan on getting away with it throughout the rest of their lifetime just don’t make sense to me.

Now when you toss in the endless AP machine pros, card flashing dealers, comps, promotions, cashbacks, progressive jackpots, etc. where luck plays even a bigger factor than card counting, while traveling all over the country to do it, is something that would require some type of proof that a secure and safe lifetime was achieved at least one time by someone. Some of these AP's even talk about teams. Just how many families are they supporting? Making absurd claims on a forum with typed words doesn’t have me convinced. Forcing me and others not to mock or doubt these unproven claims is explained in my first paragraph.

I’m not saying there aren’t any smart math people out there that could catch the right thing at the right time and pick up a few bucks. Maybe, a good and fun side job.

Blackhole, I count five or six APs on this site (I don't count as I'm not an AP). That doesn't qualify as "endless machine pros." Now if you're encountering mega-APs on other sites, your point in coming here and telling people about it is what?

Are you in the business of debunking APs? Great. I suggest an argument better than that it's a hard life, and they'd provide more security for their families if they did something else that was worthwhile. That's not much of a debunking. The same could be said of being a gardener, or a soldier (somewhat risky, eh, for the salary?), or being one of the 50 million Americans working in service jobs (that's an undercount, but I'm rounding).

You give no details on exactly how or why the APs are lying or misrepresenting. You knew nothing about facial recognition yet you touted it as a big drawback. It's not. You haven't debunked anything they have said in any concrete way, which means you don't know much about what they do or how they do it. You're laughably upset because you contacted two APs who don't want to have dinner with you. Do you understand how psychotic that sounds? Based on your posts here, who would want to have dinner with you, AP or not?

I run into people like you every week. You have some cash, and you haven't figured out the casino game. You lose. You sit there and tally up what you've donated lifetime and it makes you sick. How can some unsuccessful scumbags, maybe liberal and non-thoroughbred-owning (LOL), beat a game you can't solve?

Hard to believe, eh? But what really sticks in the craw of the people I meet like you -- is that you don't have the discipline or the will to walk away. There's the rub. The APs abide by a code of existence where they walk away or quit when the odds tilt against them. And you simply can't do that. You frame it as you won't do it, but it comes down to that you can't do it.

And that's why you try to debunk APs. It's not the fact they win. It's the fact they can walk away if they think they're going to lose.

And you can't.

My only response to redietz baseless unconfirmed pro AP claims is to play his theme song..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRb88V8L8us

I don't see any baseless pro AP claims in the post above. You might want to check my previous 3000 posts and see if I've made any.

My suggestion to you, blackhole, is to quit gambling. You'll lead a healthier, happier, more productive life.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Regarding this forum and APs, I want to say that I sincerely appreciate any APs who wish to post here.

If we get enough of them, I'll even consider making a private AP-only section where people can trade knowledge or discuss potential angles.

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What a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:

1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?

And the hits just keep on coming...

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This is funny stuff. It's already been determined that anyone who likes to identify themselves as an "AP'" here does so with the qualifier that they say NOTHING about the "fantastic, edge-happy plays" they claim to know about, they will only post as anonymous cowards so they can keep on making stuff up about themselves, and not one of them will provide any sort of proof that they "win" except to quote theory from math books. You know, the same talking points the casinos use.

So for it to be suggested that these chumps could EVER provide any kind of worthy information or even discussions, outside of the pretend and wannabee arena, that would be more than a big laugh.

All they've ever proven is that AP is nothing more than a simple, justification-laced, state of mind.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Regarding this forum and APs, I want to say that I sincerely appreciate any APs who wish to post here.

If we get enough of them, I'll even consider making a private AP-only section where people can trade knowledge or discuss potential angles.

---

What a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:

1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?

And the hits just keep on coming...

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This is funny stuff. It's already been determined that anyone who likes to identify themselves as an "AP'" here does so with the qualifier that they say NOTHING about the "fantastic, edge-happy plays" they claim to know about, they will only post as anonymous cowards so they can keep on making stuff up about themselves, and not one of them will provide any sort of proof that they "win" except to quote theory from math books. You know, the same talking points the casinos use.

So for it to be suggested that these chumps could EVER provide any kind of worthy information or even discussions, outside of the pretend and wannabee arena, that would be more than a big laugh.

All they've ever proven is that AP is nothing more than a simple, justification-laced, state of mind.

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I love these retarded rants. All they do is fish for information. Are we supposed to just say, "my name is Joe Blow and I play this game, at (insert casino name), against these specific dealers." If so, you're out of your fucking mind!!

If people don't want to believe, leave it that way. Opposite of what Rob says, I DONT want you to wise up about it.