"Last Chance To Get Even" sign along the I-15

Whenever we make the drive from Vegas back to Los Angeles, we get a chuckle seeing the sign right before the Stateline Primm casinos that says "Last Chance to Get Even."

I know that a lot of gamblers leaving Vegas take that exit ramp off the I-15 thinking that after losing money in Vegas that the odds will catch up with them at Primm.

That's pretty much what long term gamblers think too. They think that over the long term the odds will catch up with them.

I remember when I was going through that 170-thousand hand drought of Royals, and others would tell me that my royals were coming and my drought would end. It was if they were trying to say "the math will take care of you over the long term."

Well, I've made that stop at Primm, and I can tell you that you can never depend on the math catching up with you to take you out of a hole.

And I understand Rob Singer when he says he was forced into being addicted to playing when he was a "AP" because he had to keep playing so that the math would work for him... but it didn't.

So now when we pass that "Last Chance To Get Even" sign we giggle. We do sometimes stop, but it's more likely because it's the last chance to buy gas before the long trip through the desert.

That's funny. But what's even funnier is trying to imagine how arci would have told that story....or Jean Scott, or Bob Dancer, or any of the AP's we see.posting to the forums over the years. It would go something....no, EXACTLY like this: "I stopped many times at Primm for that last chance that sign reminds me of, and I've never won anything UNTIL my last stop--where the math did its thing once again and made me an overall winner."

Of course, no AP will ever admit to being in a losing streak until and unless that can either claim or make up that they just miraculously won something that now makes it all so right.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Whenever we make the drive from Vegas back to Los Angeles, we get a chuckle seeing the sign right before the Stateline Primm casinos that says "Last Chance to Get Even."

I know that a lot of gamblers leaving Vegas take that exit ramp off the I-15 thinking that after losing money in Vegas that the odds will catch up with them at Primm.

That's pretty much what long term gamblers think too. They think that over the long term the odds will catch up with them.

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Not sure what you mean by "long term gamblers". Since you are still playing I would guess you fit that description perfectly.

OTOH, advantage players do NOT, I repeat do NOT, think that way. Unlike your silly attempt to slam APers, they know the reality. Your future expectations are based on whatever the return is of games you choose to play. You can't expect randomness to all of a sudden produce non-random results.

I can only wonder why Alan would choose to make such a ridiculous claims.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And I understand Rob Singer when he says he was forced into being addicted to playing when he was a "AP" because he had to keep playing so that the math would work for him... but it didn't.

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Well, if that is what wheels thought then it confirms that he is a complete d----. It also means anyone who believes that nonsense is not too bright either.

Some of us actually know what happened to Singer. He drank and chased women. I suspect his playing level was a good 2% below optimal strategy. He also played long and hard meaning he played when he was too tired to concentrate. It's all pretty obvious he went bankrupt because he failed to use proper discipline in his play. However, being the addict that he is, he will never accept personal responsibility for his actions. That is why he continues to claim APers can't win. If they could, it would mean he was a failure. He was .... and still is.

Arc, when I was talking about my drought, SO MANY TIMES I was told that it would all catch up to me... and the royals would come magically as if the great video poker royal flush distributor in the sky knew I "was due" and would drop the appropriate number of royals into my lap.

Here's what we say when we play craps: the dice have no memory. The last roll has no bearing on the next roll. The last 40-thousand rolls have no bearing on the next roll. So why do video poker players believe that over time (long term) a 9/6 Jacks or Better game will return 99.5%?? The only way you could possibly believe that is to think the machine will "even things out" over time.

Craps players don't think that way. But VP players do?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc, when I was talking about my drought, SO MANY TIMES I was told that it would all catch up to me... and the royals would come magically as if the great video poker royal flush distributor in the sky knew I "was due" and would drop the appropriate number of royals into my lap.

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Who told you such nonsense? You only thing one can "expect" in the future is average luck. There is no regression to the mean in VP. Now, that doesn't mean you couldn't "catch up" It simply means you can't expect it to happen. I am down a few RFs since I've kept track the last 9 years. However, since I have played many games with extremely good edges, I didn't need a full complement of RFs to win. For example, I've had only one RF this year (93K hands) and yet I'm still ahead for the year.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Here's what we say when we play craps: the dice have no memory. The last roll has no bearing on the next roll. The last 40-thousand rolls have no bearing on the next roll. So why do video poker players believe that over time (long term) a 9/6 Jacks or Better game will return 99.5%?? The only way you could possibly believe that is to think the machine will "even things out" over time.

Craps players don't think that way. But VP players do?

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You made two separate claims here.

1) A VP player thinks JOB will return 99.5% in the future. That is true. That is based on average luck. Actual results could be better or worse but will approach that number over time.

2) A VP player thinks results will "even out". That is false. Advantage VP players do not think that way. Your description of craps applies to VP as well. If someone is telling you that future results will be non-random (even out) then you should not believe much of anything they say. Oh wait, that would also apply to our favorite d----.

Every single book and article about the pay table return for video poker uses the phrase "over time." Using a phrase such as "over time" means in plain, simple English, that you expect a certain number of hands to show in order to deliver the expected return of the pay table. And if that is not what the phrase "over time" means than the math of video poker has a set of English language definitions that is unique.

On the contrary, every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Every single book and article about the pay table return for video poker uses the phrase "over time." Using a phrase such as "over time" means in plain, simple English, that you expect a certain number of hands to show in order to deliver the expected return of the pay table. And if that is not what the phrase "over time" means than the math of video poker has a set of English language definitions that is unique.

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Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%. You have gotten closer to the expectation "over time". That is all the statement means.

It doesn't mean you are expected to get 100% return so that you reach the original expected return as you appear to want it to mean. Now, look at the next 800K hands ... again, the expectation is you will get 99.5%. What does this do to you total return? Get out your calculator and you will see it is approaching 99.5% and not once did you have a future expectation over 99.5%

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

On the contrary, every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice.

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The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Oh here we go again. Arc is back with this gem of video poker math: Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%.

I think you meant theoretical return and not actual return.

Regardless of what you meant, you believe that the math will "come through" and therefore you believe that when you sit down at a 99.5% game you believe the holy spirit of video poker will be sure you finish playing at some point in the everafter with a 99.5% return.

Somewhere, over the rainbow...

Arc wrote: The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Absolute BS. There is no hand in video poker that returns 99.5% of your bet, or 99.17% of your bet. The expected return of video poker can only be computed over a combination of hands. While all of the math of craps is based on one single roll of the dice.

See, that's the difference between AP's and you, Alan. When I see that sign, "Last Chance to Get Even" when driving to see the girlfriend in Orange County, I think of all the ex-girlfriends who did me wrong. I figure there's a gun and ammo store just off the ramp. It sure looks like a ramp where there should be a guns and ammo store.

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Originally Posted by redietz

See, that's the difference between AP's and you, Alan. When I see that sign, "Last Chance to Get Even" when driving to see the girlfriend in Orange County, I think of all the ex-girlfriends who did me wrong. I figure there's a gun and ammo store just off the ramp. It sure looks like a ramp where there should be a guns and ammo store.

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Please redietz, arci's having enough trouble getting caught by Alan lying, making it up on the go, then contradicting himself. Don't bring up guns & ammo at this point....the poor guy's got it tough enough at home as it is!

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Oh here we go again. Arc is back with this gem of video poker math: Alan, it's really simple math. If you play 100K hands at a return of 99% and then play the next 100K hands at 99.5% then your actual return has gone up .25%.

I think you meant theoretical return and not actual return.

Regardless of what you meant, you believe that the math will "come through" and therefore you believe that when you sit down at a 99.5% game you believe the holy spirit of video poker will be sure you finish playing at some point in the everafter with a 99.5% return.

Somewhere, over the rainbow...

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Sorry Alan, I thought the math was simple enough for even you to understand. I guess I overestimated your ability.

Arc, I'm afraid it is you who doesn't understand the game of craps. You raise issues of math as a diversion from the actual problem.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Arc wrote: The return of VP is based on individual hands as well. Every hand is independent. It is exactly the same as craps. There is no magic here.

Absolute BS. There is no hand in video poker that returns 99.5% of your bet, or 99.17% of your bet. The expected return of video poker can only be computed over a combination of hands. While all of the math of craps is based on one single roll of the dice.

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Alan, if you making a bet in craps is there any time you will be paid exactly the return of the overall game considering all possible situations? No? In other words your saying your original comment about craps ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice") was "absolute BS"?

First, an apology. I tried to respond to Arc's post above with a quote, and hit edit by mistake. I did not alter Arc's post. Now the response:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, if you making a bet in craps is there any time you will be paid exactly the return of the overall game considering all possible situations? No? In other words your saying your original comment about craps ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice") was "absolute BS"?

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Sorry Arc, you do not understand how the game of craps is played. Each bet on the table is an independent bet even though there may be several bets on the table made at the same time. Each bet is resolved independently, even if one throw can resolve them all. And each bet is paid independently or not paid depending on the throw of the dice.

Each bet is always paid independently according to the odds of that independent bet. There is no change in the odds or the payoffs over time.

Again, you have no idea how craps is played.

Alan, that is no different than VP. Let's see if I can help you out. What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes. That is exactly the same as VP. There's just a lot more possible outcomes in VP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, that is no different than VP. Let's see if I can help you out. What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes. That is exactly the same as VP. There's just a lot more possible outcomes in VP.

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No Arc, you still have no idea about craps. There are no "average possible outcomes" for the pass bet. The pass bet always pays even money no matter how much you bet, and the house always has a 1.4% edge on the pass bet no matter how much you bet and no matter if the bet is resolved in one throw of the dice or after 1,000 throws of the dice. The pass bet does not change if you also bet odds, or if you also place all of the numbers, and if you bet all of the hardways, and if you bet the horn numbers and if you bet the field and if you also simultaneously bet the don'ts.

Each time you make a bet at video poker you could lose that bet or double your money or triple it, or hit a royal or hit a straight flush, and the individual payoffs can vary game by game. Each and every bet on the craps table is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time.

"What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes." This will keep me laughing for a long time, and make me doubt you for a longer time.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

No Arc, you still have no idea about craps. There are no "average possible outcomes" for the pass bet. The pass bet always pays even money no matter how much you bet, and the house always has a 1.4% edge on the pass bet no matter how much you bet and no matter if the bet is resolved in one throw of the dice or after 1,000 throws of the dice. The pass bet does not change if you also bet odds, or if you also place all of the numbers, and if you bet all of the hardways, and if you bet the horn numbers and if you bet the field and if you also simultaneously bet the don'ts.

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You're just confusing yourself again, Alan. The pass bet has two outcomes. You win or lose. In addition, you lose a bit more often that you win. There is not ONE outcome. So, the return of a pass bet is 98.6%. That is NOT the return on a single bet. In a VP game there are also multiple outcomes. It just turns out it might be 10-15 outcomes rather than 2. And, the results of those outcomes for JOB come out to 99.54% rather than 98.6%. Are you catching on yet?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Each time you make a bet at video poker you could lose that bet or double your money or triple it, or hit a royal or hit a straight flush, and the individual payoffs can vary game by game. Each and every bet on the craps table is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time.

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Each and every bet on a 9/6 JOB game is a regulated bet with a standard payoff that never changes over time. There's no reason someone couldn't come up with a different type of craps game with different payouts. However, there appears to be no market for it so I doubt it will happen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

"What is the average return of a pass bet? Is it exactly the same as you get on any single game? Of course not. It is the average of all possible outcomes." This will keep me laughing for a long time, and make me doubt you for a longer time.

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All you have done is demonstrate your inability to understand simple concepts. You tried to claim that every pass bet in craps returns exactly 98.6% of the bet. Go back and read your own words ("every percentage in the game of craps is based on ONE SINGLE ROLL of the dice"). So, explain to me how you receive 98.6% of your bet on a single roll?

Alan, it's entertaining seeing you make arci squirm and shift his position over and over again, but don't expect him to respond favorably to the facts. All those pesky little things do is repture his pride too much to admit that ANYTHING exists other than how he tells himself it should.

Keep him responding. All you have to do is say he's wrong! Then watch and enjoy the agitation!

On this one, Arci's right. You could talk about short vs. long term play and ev and who's got a bigger d##k just like V.P.

I'm sorry, but to Arci and quahaug -- you can throw in as many side issues as you want but the facts about craps are these:

1. Every bet is its own individual game. If for example you are betting a place bet on 5 your bet is simply this: you will hit a 5 before a 7. That is the only decision.

2. The pass bet is an individual bet. If before a point is set, you win on 7 or 11, and you lose on 2, 3, 12. If the comeout bet is another number then if you repeat that number before you roll a 7 you win, or if you roll a 7 first you lose.

There are no overall odds for the bets on the table. Each bet has its own individual odds.

Now video poker:

1. A bet at video poker could lose or it could win various amounts based on the combination of cards dealt and drawn. It is a more complex game.

2. While each hand bet in video poker is an individual bet, the overall payback on the game varies with the paytable and the number of hands played. The payback of video poker depends on a multitude of hands played since no one payback will give you, for example, 99.5% or 99.2%.

Arc wrote this: "So, the return of a pass bet is 98.6%. That is NOT the return on a single bet. In a VP game there are also multiple outcomes. It just turns out it might be 10-15 outcomes rather than 2."

This is not right, because Arc is not using the proper definitions. The return of the pass line bet is either 100% or it is zero -- you either win it or you don't -- and the passline bet is always paid as an even-money bet. No matter what the point is, if you bet $5 on the passline you will win $5 when the point is made, or you will lose the $5 bet. The house advantage or edge is 1.4%. There is no phrase in craps about "the return" being 98.6%. This term does not exist in craps. You are creating something that does not exist. Again, the return is either 100% or it is zero -- you either win or lose.

For the place bets and exotic bets on the craps table, the return or payoff will vary with the bet. For example, a place bet on the 6 will pay 7 for 6. While the odds on the point of 6 will pay 6 for five. The pay on the one roll bet on 12 will pay 30 to 1 OR 30 for 1 depending on the casino. There is no term for "return" on a bet, unlike 9/6 Jacks which has a 99.5% return.

In craps there is no way to figure or compute a return. But you can figure the advantage or "edge" that the house has on each and every bet.

The rest of the statement regarding VP is just more of his gibberish and has nothing to do with comparing video poker to craps.

Alan, the return in any casino game is a function of house edge but the concept is irrelevent if you only place one bet in craps vp bj or any other game.

The return on a pass line bet is 1.4% and it goes to the casino, not the player.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

The return on a pass line bet is 1.4% and it goes to the casino, not the player.

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The return is not the house advantage or edge. Or I am speaking a different language on a different planet.

Please look at this page on the Wizard of Odds site: http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ You will not find the word or concept "return."

It does not exist in craps.

You are speaking a different language on this planet.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

You are speaking a different language on this planet.

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Please let the Wizard of Odds know as well as every other author of craps books. Or better yet, quote me one page -- from any credible source -- that lists the "return" for the passline bet at craps, or the "return" for playing the game of craps (similar to the return of 99.5% for playing 9/6 Jacks or Better).

And one more question: if the game of craps has a return, similar to 99.5% for jacks or better, what is the return for playing craps? Please state the percentage and how you determined it. I might learn something.

Alan, each individual bet in craps is like an individual bet in video poker. It stands alone and has a return based on all possible outcomes. No craps bet returns the effective return of the game, just like VP. When I press deal on a VP machine all outcomes are possible. When I make a craps bet all outcomes are possible as well. I think where you are getting confused is all possible outcomes in a craps bet are always available until the end whereas in VP the number of possible results changes after you select cards. However, this is simply a variation in how the process of the game unfolds.

A pass bet or any other craps bet are like different VP games. The pass bet could be compared to JOB and the "5" bet to DDB. They have different possible outcomes which changes the average return of the bet. Again,a the craps bet is simpler than the VP bet in that there are fewer possible outcomes, but that does not change the fact that you DON'T end up with every possible outcome in any single game.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, each individual bet in craps is like an individual bet in video poker. It stands alone and has a return based on all possible outcomes. No craps bet returns the effective return of the game, just like VP. When I press deal on a VP machine all outcomes are possible. When I make a craps bet all outcomes are possible as well. I think where you are getting confused is all possible outcomes in a craps bet are always available until the end whereas in VP the number of possible results changes after you select cards. However, this is simply a variation in how the process of the game unfolds.

A pass bet or any other craps bet are like different VP games. The pass bet could be compared to JOB and the "5" bet to DDB. They have different possible outcomes which changes the average return of the bet. Again,a the craps bet is simpler than the VP bet in that there are fewer possible outcomes, but that does not change the fact that you DON'T end up with every possible outcome in any single game.

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This will surprise you, Arc: I agree with you. So now, please, tell me this: With all of the different payoffs in video poker, you are still able to come up with an overall "return" such as 99.5% in Jacks or Better. So, what is the "return" on a game of craps?

Let me add another wrinkle in the problem for you. A player elects not to take a payout, and instead chooses to "parlay" the bet, or press the bet. How do you figure your "return" now? Or, a player who only had been betting 6 and 8 and the passline, decldes to use the payout on an 8 to place a bet on the 5. What does that do to the return?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This will surprise you, Arc: I agree with you. So now, please, tell me this: With all of the different payoffs in video poker, you are still able to come up with an overall "return" such as 99.5% in Jacks or Better. So, what is the "return" on a game of craps?

Let me add another wrinkle in the problem for you. A player elects not to take a payout, and instead chooses to "parlay" the bet, or press the bet. How do you figure your "return" now? Or, a player who only had been betting 6 and 8 and the passline, decldes to use the payout on an 8 to place a bet on the 5. What does that do to the return?

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Alan, each bet in craps is a different game. Just like I stated above. If you change the type of bet that is like changing the game in VP from JOB to DB or NSUD or whatever. A different game with different outcomes and a different average return. So, whenever one game ends and you make another decision it's just a new game. Think of it like switching from BP to DDB on a multiple denomination machine. Ask yourself what the return is when you do that.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, each bet in craps is a different game. Just like I stated above. If you change the type of bet that is like changing the game in VP from JOB to DB or NSUD or whatever. A different game with different outcomes and a different average return. So, whenever one game ends and you make another decision it's just a new game. Think of it like switching from BP to DDB on a multiple denomination machine. Ask yourself what the return is when you do that.

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Then you agree with me (because I said this earlier) that you cannot determine the "return" on the game of craps. Which is why no one ever states that there is a "return" playing craps and they can only discuss the "edge" or "house advantage" on the individual bets.

And as I wrote above in post #15 of this thread: "Each bet on the table is an independent bet even though there may be several bets on the table made at the same time. Each bet is resolved independently, even if one throw can resolve them all. And each bet is paid independently or not paid depending on the throw of the dice.

Each bet is always paid independently according to the odds of that independent bet."

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Then you agree with me (because I said this earlier) that you cannot determine the "return" on the game of craps. Which is why no one ever states that there is a "return" playing craps and they can only discuss the "edge" or "house advantage" on the individual bets.

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Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make. So, no I don't agree with you.

As you should understand now, the same holds for the game of video poker. Until you specify a particular VP game or games and the number of hands of each, you cannot come up with a return.

You've been claiming that VP and craps are fundamentally different. They aren't.

Never mind Arc. I know you will never admit that you're wrong. And it appears you never can admit that I can be right.

You can figure a return on every video poker game and every video poker game has a stated return because every video poker game is played the same way: you are dealt five cards and you play the hand.

You cannot figure a return on the game of craps because the game of craps is made up of individual bets, and the individual bets can be played differently by different players.

I'm not going to go around in circles with you anymore.

Bingo! Alan. Why do you think arci is here when he can't argue in his name anymore after being tossed for good from vpFree for calling Dancer names because HE wouldn't buy into arci's made up BS! Truth is, while arci hangs every hat he has on living, eating, and dreaming about video poker, that same item has ruined his life far beyond that which could come close to being comprehended by the normal player. Thus, the constant name-calling, lying, and disagreeing with the facts as if they were never presented to him--all in the name of trying to get back at the administrator of vpFree, me, Dancer, and now you for allowing him to expose his lies and neurosis on yet another gaming forum.

Entertainment? Not even close. Watching someone create their own retribution for their adversaries is a sight to behold! So isn't knowing the pain he goes thru whenever mentioning his permanent ban from vpFree. Oh what a defeat that was! :) And oh, how sweet it was for the thousands of members who supported....and couldn't wait for....his banishment. :)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Never mind Arc. I know you will never admit that you're wrong. And it appears you never can admit that I can be right.

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First you have to be right. It's you who won't admit you are wrong. Look, none of this is particularly hard to understand. Sorry if you can't work it out.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You can figure a return on every video poker game and every video poker game has a stated return because every video poker game is played the same way: you are dealt five cards and you play the hand.

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But everyone does NOT play every hand the same. Some rather slow folks even call their poor choices "special plays".

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

You cannot figure a return on the game of craps because the game of craps is made up of individual bets, and the individual bets can be played differently by different players.

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Yup, just like VP. The listed return of any VP game assumes optimal play. No one plays perfectly so you can't really predetermine the return of a game for any individual VP player either.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I'm not going to go around in circles with you anymore.

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Typical. When you know you're wrong you just walk away.

Yup, a sight to behold! More line item vetoeing. The pressure must really be building up....and in such a righteous way. :)

Rob, he's admitted he can't answer the questions because there is no right answer to the questions because his entire belief is bogus.

My first question to him: "What is the "return" on a game of craps?" His response: "Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make." He attempts to wiggle out of giving an answer with a lame reason about specifying the number of games (bets) made. Is there such a condition in figuring the return on any game of video poker? Of course not. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 9/6 Jacks or Better is 99.5% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 8/5 Bonus is 99.2% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Yet he tries to wiggle an excuse about his contention about craps having a "return" because it would vary with the bets made.

Well, it is because there are so many bets made and how the bets are made and what the players do with payoffs, that there is no such thing as a "return" for the game of craps. There are returns (if you want to call it that) for each bet because each bet has an edge (or no edge in the case of odds) but there is no "return" for the overall game. It is a concept that does not exist for the game. Yet Arc contends "it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make."

Nowhere, in any gaming book, manual, discussion or article -- and no where in any casino advertising -- is a "return" on the game of craps discussed. Yet the return on video poker machines and even slot machines is openly discussed.

Trust me on this one: if there were such a thing as a "return" on the game of craps, the casinos would advertise it and adjust it so that they could get a competitive advantage over their competitors. I am sure that Caesars would love to advertise it had a 99% return on craps which beat Bellagio's 98% return on craps. But such advertising does not exist because there is no such thing as a return on craps.

Craps is a game made up of individual bets with each bet having a particular chance of winning or losing, with the house having an edge on every bet except for the odds, and each player has the ability to change not only the bet but how the winnings are used, so there is no way you can look at the long term or even the short term to homogenize the bets into any sort of "return."

Of course if Arc thinks he can come up with a "return" for playing craps, and with all of the 45+ different bets on a craps table (not including the exotic or patented bets, not including the presses, full presses, partial presses, not including the parlays and bet removals, and not including the changes of denominations per bet) then he should state the figure here. Let him set the record straight for everyone else in the world.

By the way, late Saturday night I'll be playing craps at Caesars. I'll let you know if they have a sign in the craps pit that advertises the "return" of the game. LOL

Alan,

I think you're missing the point here regarding video poker. The casinos advertise return "based on perfect play." Now you can figure out the best craps bet at each property and call that "perfect play." Right?

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Originally Posted by redietz

Alan,

I think you're missing the point here regarding video poker. The casinos advertise return "based on perfect play." Now you can figure out the best craps bet at each property and call that "perfect play." Right?

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Another bogus thought. There is no "perfect play" in craps. It is a game of chance, unless, redietz, you believe in dice control. Do you believe in dice control? (Hint: there is no such thing as dice control. There may be dice influencing... maybe.)

Again, I ask you redietz, if you believe in "perfect play" at craps, what is the "return" at craps for this "perfect play"? LOL. Ridiculous.

And if it is a matter of finding the best craps bet, you still haven't answered the question about defining the return for the game of craps, have you? The question is, what is the return for the game of craps that Arc insists can be determined? Determine it, please.

Quetion for redietz: You're a poker player. What is the return for playing at a $100 buy in, no limit hold'em game? Is that a universal return that can be applied to other times you play or anyone else plays? Why or why not? If you can tell me that you can define the return --and that return will apply to all players whenever you or they sit down to play a $100 buy-in game of Texas Hold'em, I will concede that there is a defined return for playing the game of craps.

I know nothing about craps, other than that it's a good game to accumulate comps. But you said in the case of an odds bet that there was no edge. That would seem to fit the definition then, of perfect play. But no casino is motivated to push people towards playing the craps wager with the best return, so that would explain why they do not do so. Now is there a logical fallacy here?

Since you don't know about how to play craps... the odds bet is only available for the pass bet, the don't pass, the come bet and the don't come bet after a number or "point" is established. There are no "odds" bets on placing the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10. There are no "odds" bets on the 7 or the horn numbers of 2, 3, 11, 12. There are no "odds" bets on hardways, or the various proposition bets such as "hop bets," or "any craps" or "world" bets.

The "free odds" bets or "odds bets" are restricted so the casino can make money. Craps is a negative expectation game -- period. There is no such thing as "expert play" unless you are a magician with the dice. Those of us who play craps try to be magicians, but so far no one has the title of "master dice magician."

By the way, craps is not a good game for accumulating comps. When you play craps you are at the mercy of the floorman or pit critters who must accurately record your bets and report them. Unlike slots and video poker where there is a computer to track your coin-in, table games such as craps are subject to wide swings in reporting. My classic example is when I spent a weekend playing craps at one casino in Vegas... at least 12 hours at the tables over the course of a weekend, and I was "recorded" for playing 90 minutes, and at a smaller than my actual average bet.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Rob, he's admitted he can't answer the questions because there is no right answer to the questions because his entire belief is bogus.

My first question to him: "What is the "return" on a game of craps?" His response: "Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make." He attempts to wiggle out of giving an answer with a lame reason about specifying the number of games (bets) made. Is there such a condition in figuring the return on any game of video poker? Of course not. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 9/6 Jacks or Better is 99.5% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 8/5 Bonus is 99.2% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Yet he tries to wiggle an excuse about his contention about craps having a "return" because it would vary with the bets made.

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Come on, Alan. I simply stated the facts. Sorry if you can't handle it. The very same logic holds for VP as for craps. And, as for your last assertion, it is also false. The return of any VP game is dependent on the strategy employed. Almost no one plays 9/6 JOB at 99.5% or 8/5 BP at 99.2%. Only a handful of people can achieve those kinds of results.

Have you always applied this kind of logic in all your thinking? I can only wonder at how you get along in life?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Well, it is because there are so many bets made and how the bets are made and what the players do with payoffs, that there is no such thing as a "return" for the game of craps. There are returns (if you want to call it that) for each bet because each bet has an edge (or no edge in the case of odds) but there is no "return" for the overall game. It is a concept that does not exist for the game. Yet Arc contends "it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make."

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Alan, that is just a simple mathematical statement. I can only wonder at how anyone can claim it's not true. Did you take high school math?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Nowhere, in any gaming book, manual, discussion or article -- and no where in any casino advertising -- is a "return" on the game of craps discussed. Yet the return on video poker machines and even slot machines is openly discussed.

Trust me on this one: if there were such a thing as a "return" on the game of craps, the casinos would advertise it and adjust it so that they could get a competitive advantage over their competitors. I am sure that Caesars would love to advertise it had a 99% return on craps which beat Bellagio's 98% return on craps. But such advertising does not exist because there is no such thing as a return on craps.

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There is no such thing as an individual return on VP either, you have to specify exactly what game you are playing (and to be precise, the strategy as well) ... you know, just like in craps ... you have to specify what bet you are making. Keep scrambling around. This stuff is simple math applied to a simple game. All you are accomplishing by denying it is making yourself look foolish.

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

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I just checked the wizard's information. It is all there. He even has a big table where everything is laid out in one place. A table listing many VP games and the returns would be the equivalent for video poker.

I recently listened to the GWAE show from the Internet that's on some obscure LV AM station & hosted by both the wizard & Dancer. I trust what wizard says and writes, because, having met him and after several hours of intense discussions, he just isn't capable of dealing BS. This comes across clearly when you hear the two of them banter back & forth. Michael has all the facts and sounds confident, while Dancer can't help it when his nervous, gimpy voice comes to the forefront by all the stuff he says that's either conjecture, bragging, or condescending to his audience.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

while Dancer can't help it when his nervous, gimpy voice comes to the forefront by all the stuff he says that's either conjecture, bragging, or condescending to his audience.

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The envy just flows and flows. Poor wheels just can't help himself. He so wanted to be Bob Dancer.

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Originally Posted by quahaug

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

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Here's the problem with this quahaug: in craps you win one bet at a time, but you lose them all at one time if you are a "right way" bettor. If you are a wrong way bettor, it is the opposite -- you lose one bet at a time and you can win them all at a time. So using the payouts for the various bets on the craps table, how do you figure the two situations I just presented as one return?

Again, you can't. Why are you and Arc trying to create something that does not exist? There is no such thing as a total return on the game of craps. And Arc, it doesn't matter that there are various returns for different play levels whether it be optimum or non-optimum. In video poker there are total returns, aren't there? In craps there isn't.

It is this manufacturing of facts -- your claim of a total return for the game of craps -- which makes me doubt your other assertions. What else have you created?

edited to add: And I forgot another reason why an overall return cannot be figured for craps. While the "odds bet" for pass line and come bets is paid at "true odds" (therefore no house advantage) the odds bets for don't pass and don't come are paid at the REVERSE of true odds.

Example: Pass line point is 6 and true odds are paid 6 to 5. But for the don't pass bettor, if the 7 comes before the 7, the odds on don't pass 6 are paid at 5 to 6.

Earlier I asked redietz, a poker player, to tell me if he could figure the overall return for playing live poker. That is as impossible as it is for playing craps.

And earlier I said if there were a way to figure the overall return for craps, the casinos would advertise it, and they would improve their returns as a competitive measure to lure gamblers. They don't advertise the return on the game of craps. Period.

I also challenged Arc to come up with a return on the game of craps. Please do go through the exercise and you will see for yourself that you can't.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

I also challenged Arc to come up with a return on the game of craps. Please do go through the exercise and you will see for yourself that you can't.

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Alan, I challenge you to come up with a return for the game of Video Poker.

See the problem? The name refers to generic game which consists of multiple specific types of games. Each type of bet in craps is like each type of video poker game. You CAN come up with a return when you specify the type. But then I already explained this to you 12 ways to Sunday and you continue to spew nonsense. Good grief.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Alan, I challenge you to come up with a return for the game of Video Poker.

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Challenge accepted. Here it is for 9/6 Jacks Or Better: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...cks-or-better/

Now, show me a "return" for the game of craps?

You are now using a wiggle to say that the game of craps is made up of multiple games. It's made up of multiple bets which are played as if they were unique games, but it is all the game of craps. You don't walk up to a craps table and say "I want to play the place-the-5 game." And if you did you would look very silly.

You are silly, Arc. You're a good guy, but you're silly. By the way, is this your "wiggle" in the video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS5cY_AgPnc

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Challenge accepted. Here it is for 9/6 Jacks Or Better: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...cks-or-better/

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Fail. I never said a word about jacks or better let alone a given pay table. Better luck next time.

You see if 9/6 JOB defined "video poker" then there would be no such thing as DDB or DB or BP or FPDW or NSUD or OEJs or .... Since these games exist and people refer to them as "video poker" games then your answer cannot be correct.

You should know better than to try and pull a fast one. Only makes you look bad.

Dance. Weave. Bobble. Wiggle. (Sent via smart phone.)

The return on a pass line bet is 98.59%. The return on "any 7" is 83.33%.ect. Simple. The return on a single number in roulette is 94.74%. In the long term the casino will make money, cause like Rob says the long term is only for the casino, not the player. Its interesting that the only skill games in the casino, vp and blackjack have the lowest house edge and the games that require no skill have the highest. I don't believe sports betting or live poker are "casino games" in the traditional sense.

You nailed it quahaug which is why I play so little craps now. In nearly 15 years of craps play only twice did I ever leave a table with a profit of $5K or more.

I have no idea what you were/are trying to accomplish with this line of semi-reasoning, Alan. Clearly 9/6 J or B is not "video poker." It's one subset, one option -- like any particular bet in craps. And what's with this notion that if Arci has flawed responses to one question, his answers to other questions are problematic? Ye Gods, if you applied that to yourself, we couldn't trust a word you say, given the math difficulties.

The idea that casinos would advertise return rates to make more money is also very weird. Hell, Bally's did the precise opposite a few years back, trumpeting "6/5 Return on Blackjack" up on their big sign. They actually advertised that they were offering worse return -- which shows you the disdain they have the intelligence of their players. It also shows what kind of players they want.

So where this thread went is a mystery. Why it went in this direction is also a mystery.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Dance. Weave. Bobble. Wiggle. (Sent via smart phone.)

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The only question is whether you are just as deluded in all of your thinking.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I have no idea what you were/are trying to accomplish with this line of semi-reasoning, Alan. Clearly 9/6 J or B is not "video poker." It's one subset, one option -- like any particular bet in craps. And what's with this notion that if Arci has flawed responses to one question, his answers to other questions are problematic? Ye Gods, if you applied that to yourself, we couldn't trust a word you say, given the math difficulties.

The idea that casinos would advertise return rates to make more money is also very weird. Hell, Bally's did the precise opposite a few years back, trumpeting "6/5 Return on Blackjack" up on their big sign. They actually advertised that they were offering worse return -- which shows you the disdain they have the intelligence of their players. It also shows what kind of players they want.

So where this thread went is a mystery. Why it went in this direction is also a mystery.

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What I find really ironic is that I am discussing craps with two guys who admit that they don't play it and really aren't familiar with the game of craps.

You redietz and Arc are now suggesting that the game of craps is made up of individual games, much like the universe of video poker is made up of different games such as bonus, JOB, aces and faces, double bonus, deuces wild, etc. And this is partially my fault because in an earlier post I explained that the game of craps is made up of individual bets which actually function as their own game within a game. My mistake. In trying to explain to you how complex the game of craps is and how it is impossible to figure a "return" on the game of craps, you guys have turned that into some argument that craps has different games within games and then you argue that "video poker" also doesn't have an overall return for all games.

Well, yes, you are correct. The overall universe of video poker games does not have an overall return -- if you want to look at it that way. And each individual game of video poker does have a particular return. We agree.

If you want to apply this logic to the game of craps, because the game of craps is made up of unique bets, then be my guest. But please, do not belly up to a craps table and announce to the dealers that you want to play the game called "place the five" because there is no such game as "place the five." You can place the five as a bet but it's a bet within the game of craps.

Guys, you are trying to apply factors in video poker to craps... and you can't. Jacks or Better, for example, is a type of game in the universe of video poker. Placing the 5, or betting the "no five" which might be played as if they are separate games are all part of the game of craps.

Now if you want to start redefining the game of craps, please -- be my guest. In fact, maybe you can sell the casinos on a new game and you can call it "simple craps." It's a craps game with only one bet. A shooter throws two dice and if he throws a 7 or 11 he immediately wins. If he throws a 2, 3 or 12 he immediately loses. If he throws another number he must repeat that number before a 7 shows. There is no other bet on the "simple craps" table. And you know what guys? You can honestly say that "the game of simple craps" has a return of 98.59%. And you can probably round that out to a return of 99% and put the simple craps table (it can be smaller that a traditional table) right by the slot machines under the sign that says "99% Return."

(Note to casinos: if you like my idea, I would appreciate a payment, fee, or honorarium as a token of your appreciation. This game can be played with one dealer, no floorman or "base dealers" needed and your ROI could be high since this game would move quickly since the average shooter throws the dice 5 times before a 7-out, and action will not be slowed by payouts on the 35+ other bets on the table. Whether or not you allow odds depends on how "simple" you want your "Game of Simple Craps" to be.)

Telling redietz he's not really familiar with something is one thing; telling arci that is another. One will actually think about it for a bit; the other? Why, he'll think you don't really believe he's a "know-it-all" and "tested genius":) And with the life he now has, he really NEEDS everyone to think he's special....if only for a moment or two!

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Well, yes, you are correct. The overall universe of video poker games does not have an overall return -- if you want to look at it that way. And each individual game of video poker does have a particular return. We agree.

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Good, it's nice to see you can admit you were wrong.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

Good, it's nice to see you can admit you were wrong.

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This must be a great day for you, Arc. Let's make it a greater day: please tell me the "return" for playing the game of craps that you claim the game of craps has? Or, if you can't figure it out yourself, please show me where someone else has stated the return for the game of craps?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This must be a great day for you, Arc. Let's make it a greater day: please tell me the "return" for playing the game of craps that you claim the game of craps has? Or, if you can't figure it out yourself, please show me where someone else has stated the return for the game of craps?

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:):) He has days there that can be considred "great"? :):)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This must be a great day for you, Arc. Let's make it a greater day: please tell me the "return" for playing the game of craps that you claim the game of craps has? Or, if you can't figure it out yourself, please show me where someone else has stated the return for the game of craps?

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I already told you there is no return for the "game of craps" just like there is no return of the "game of video poker". They are essentially platforms or generic names for a set of different games. Yes, as I already told you, the play of the various games is different. However, the fundamental mathematical principles that apply to one also apply to the other. You have to get down to when you actually perform a bet. That is when you have a specific situation to evaluate. And guess what, you can determine the return in both cases.

What?? Please Arc look at your post #31 in this thread in which you say you could determine a return for craps. You still haven't addressed the craps play of changing bet amounts nor has redietz advised what he would use as "craps optimal play" to compare to video poker optimal play.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

What?? Please Arc look at your post #31 in this thread in which you say you could determine a return for craps. You still haven't addressed the craps play of changing bet amounts nor has redietz advised what he would use as "craps optimal play" to compare to video poker optimal play.

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I said you could determine the return IF you specific exactly what bets you make. Really Alan, this is pretty simple stuff.

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Originally Posted by arcimede$

I said you could determine the return IF you specific exactly what bets you make. Really Alan, this is pretty simple stuff.

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Good. That ends the discussion because as every experienced craps player knows your bets will vary from roll to roll and you can even turn some bets off and leave some "working" from roll to roll. That's simple stuff too.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Good. That ends the discussion because as every experienced craps player knows your bets will vary from roll to roll and you can even turn some bets off and leave some "working" from roll to roll. That's simple stuff too.

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Did you have a point or do you just want to obfuscate the entire topic?

He's getting testy now, and I'm sure you've already detected he doesn't know what he's talking about (big surprise) because he has no idea how craps is played by the experts, so he's not doing very well as he makes it up on the go. "Pretty simple stuff" is the giveaway. :)

Sorry arci....