Professional Sportsbetting

[kewlJ]

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a game could open up as a pick 'em

then a few days later close to game time a fave could be bet down to -1.5 - happens quite often

so when would the bet be random________?___________when it was offered a a pick_________?__________or when it was offered at -1.5

my answer - if it is random - then it would be random close to game time after which there would be no changes in the line

and non-random early in the week

the bettors themselves, the sharps, move the bet spread closer to randomness the closer the bet is to the actual game time as the sharps make their late bets against the early non random line causing the books to alter their spread offering

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Good to see you posting here Half smoke. But I don't think this is right. Line movements are not designed to reflect the true odds or advantage of a game. They are designed to have as close to 50% wagers on both sides.

Maybe I am looking at this through card counters eyes, but I am going to introduce the term "points of data". In card counting we know that at a true count of +2, the player will have between .5 and 1% advantage, depending on exact rules. Now how do we KNOW this? Well there are mathematical formulas based on card removals. Now that stuff is really above my head. So someone like me relies on simulations to PROVE the same thing. And simulations will show an exact advantage or expected value (EV) for a true count of +2 (and every true count), for each set of rules.

Now the simulations use points of data, past data to determine this. It is millions and millions, 10's and 100's of millions of points of data to determine this. Anything less than multiple millions of points of data and it is deemed too small a sample size to have any real meaning.

So move over to sports betting. How exactly is EV figured? I am not aware of any such formula, like in card counting. If there is, please correct me. It appears to me it is all based on past results, each one being a point of data. For example, they look at similar +3.5 point games to try to figure out something about todays +3.5 game. Well how many +3.5 games is someone looking at? Even using computers, it is only thousands of games (or points of data) not millions. And to me, again, maybe my card counter brain at play, but that is just not a large enough sample size for any significance.

I used your (Half smoke's) first two week NFL underdog play as an earlier example. I like that play. Have made money the last 2 years on it (more 2 years ago than this year). And I am looking forward to playing in next season. But that play which is 30 games (15 for 2 weeks) each years, is based on about 12 years data or 360 games or "points of data". That is not enough to realistically figure expected anything going forward to my card counting mentality thinking.

Maybe I am missing something. Maybe I am not looking at it correctly, maybe through those card counter glasses, but until someone shows me in a way I can understand, I just don't think EV, which is based on a mathematical formula really translates to sports betting. It translates with the bonus whoring aspect of sports betting, but the handicapping or how ever some picks games, I don't see it.

[AxelWolf]

I'll spell this out for the low-IQ crowd one more time.

LOL as if a high IQ has anything to do with ones ability to make money gambling. Some of the highest IQ people I know know of couldn't +EV themselves out of a wet papper bag even with an understanding of gambling and +EV. Just because you don't agree with commonly use terms from the 80's doesn't raise your IQ. And your credit score is as meaningless as your supposed IQ when it comes to making money at gambling.

I'm willing to put my Gambling IQ vs your'. Just say the word and we can come up with something as I have already suggested.

[kewlJ]

I'll spell this out for the low-IQ crowd one more time.

LOL as if a high IQ has anything to do with ones ability to make money gambling. Some of the highest IQ people I know know of couldn't +EV themselves out of a wet papper bag even with an understanding of gambling and +EV. Just because you don't agree with commonly use terms from the 80's doesn't raise your IQ. And your credit score is as meaningless as your supposed IQ when it comes to making money at gambling.

This is a fact that the no AP or anti-AP people can't seem to grasp. I don't mean to pick on Eliot, but he is a great example. He is a very smart dude, when it comes to mathematics. (please no comments about his political or climate change views). With Gambling mathematics he is as smart as they come. But as an AP, he was not a success. Some people just don't have what it takes, despite having that math knowledge.

As soon as someone starts talking about high I.Q. or how book smart they are, thinking it translates to gambling, I immediately know they don't understand gambling and what it takes to be a long-term winning player and probably aren't such a long-term winning player.

[Half Smoke]

Line movements are not designed to reflect the true odds or advantage of a game. They are designed to have as close to 50% wagers on both sides.

that is correct
but it is the late betting sharps that caused to line to move (not every time but many times) by betting in to what they saw as a soft line
the books don't care if the sharps actually got the advantage they tried to get (most of the time)
the books making a profit is a completely different thing from the sharps making a profit


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[kewlJ]

Line movements are not designed to reflect the true odds or advantage of a game. They are designed to have as close to 50% wagers on both sides.

that is correct
but it is the late betting sharps that caused to line to move (not every time but many times) by betting in to what they saw as a soft line
the books don't care if the sharps actually got the advantage they tried to get (most of the time)
the books making a profit is a completely different thing from the sharps making a profit


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Well what is "the mathematical formula" that the sharps are using to determine that the line is wrong? I don't think there is a mathematical formula and that is what EV is based on.

With real EV (expected value), you can point to a mathematical formula to back it up. As near as I can tell people use the term EV in sports betting when it really isn't. It is closer to what redietz said. It is an "opinion" that there is value on a particular line.

[Half Smoke]

Line movements are not designed to reflect the true odds or advantage of a game. They are designed to have as close to 50% wagers on both sides.

that is correct
but it is the late betting sharps that caused to line to move (not every time but many times) by betting in to what they saw as a soft line
the books don't care if the sharps actually got the advantage they tried to get (most of the time)
the books making a profit is a completely different thing from the sharps making a profit


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Well what is "the mathematical formula" that the sharps are using to determine that the line is wrong? I don't think there is a mathematical formula and that is what EV is based on.

there is no "mathematical formula"
some very sharp bettors have very sharp opinions
they have a particular insight into certain games - they are right more often than they are wrong usually by only a small % - but big enough to be profitable
the vast majority of bettors are not sharp and are setting the table for the sharps

there are 2 ways to profit in betting sports

multi-accounting and handicapping

I would guess that those who profit by the greatest % do both

I believe that in multi-accounting or match betting books will limit the bonuses and/or free play that they offer and that the offers are usually smallish

a handicapper does not (usually) have a limitation such as that

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[kewlJ]

there is no mathematical formula
some very sharp bettors have very sharp opinions

Okay then!! That is not EV. That is opinion. Maybe a very, very good opinion, which is why they are called "sharps". But still just an opinion.

I try to follow or tag along with some bettors that have very good opinions and records, including Druff when he is not going 1 for his last 12. But it really is just opinion. I should not be seeing the term EV in sports betting discussions.

[kewlJ]

Now that said, it is possible there are a few situations where expected value may come into play with sports betting, because it comes from the math. the dreaded parlay for example. It is possible that the odds for a parlay are far greater than what it should be based on the odds of the two games. Rarely happens, but every once in a while, you will see a number that is out of whack. That would be +EV based on math, not opinion.

A second example may be the baseball run line or hockey puck line. There may be situations that some of these numbers are out of whack based on the math. I think the books are pretty careful with that, but you may find situations with an overlay, especially if you are checking many books. I think Monet is looking for such situations with his hockey picks.

[Half Smoke]

there is no mathematical formula
some very sharp bettors have very sharp opinions

Okay then!! That is not EV. That is opinion. Maybe a very, very good opinion, which is why they are called "sharps". But still just an opinion.

I try to follow or tag along with some bettors that have very good opinions and records, including Druff when he is not going 1 for his last 12. But it really is just opinion. I should not be seeing the term EV in sports betting discussions.

I agree that the term EV is not a good one for a handicapper to use
it might be better for someone milking bonuses but even then it would be difficult to say what it is with any degree of accuracy
and yes, last year's superstar capper might falter the next year
there are no guarantees
I believe there are some cappers, maybe very small in number, who are very consistent thru the years

re bonuses and such - obviously, even the most clueless bettor is going to have an advantage if a book lures him in with a 50% bonus free play offer on his first bet

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[kewlJ]

I believe there are some cappers, maybe very small in number, who are very consistent thru the years

Without a doubt.

re bonuses and such - obviously even the most clueless bettor is going to have an advantage if a book lures him in with a 50% bonus free play offer on his first bet

That is me for the last 16 months. Not sure how much longer I have at it though.


With bonus chasing, you still have to pick games by some method. The bonuses are designed in a manner that if you flip a coin to determine all games, you will pretty much eat up the bonus, unless you have gotten a really great bonus, which I initially did. So to make money you have to do a little better than a coin flip. You don't have to win more than you lose, but you need to find ways to cut that 5% loss on rollover down to 2-3%, or 0% is even better.

That is why I tag along with people I think are a little bit better than a coin flip. Doesn't always work out that way. You also try to find other things like half juice Fridays and free bets and such promotions as much as you can.

Of course it is all for not, if at the end of the cycle the sportsbook renegs on the bonus, which just happened at one of my books.

[mickeycrimm]

This is what Billy Walter's said. Chapter 22 in Walter's book is called Advanced Master Class. It says there is a lot of math and statistics involved. He worked with "true geniuses" in computer modeling and probability theory. They built power ratings that mirrored the betting spread. The power ratings ranged between +10 to -10. On specific games ratings were adjusted for factors like weather, schedule, injuries, etc. They had specific numbers for these kind of adjustments to power ratings. Power ratings were updated weekly. Average team has a rating of zero. Good teams have positive ratings, bad teams negative.

Walters shows all the factors that go into a power rating. It's detailed and in depth. There are hundreds of factors. He would bet 5 to 10 NFL games per week.

So Team A with a power rating of 10 is playing Team B with a power rating of 2.5. That's a 7.5 point differential. The posted spread on the game is 4.5. A 3 point difference between his line and the posted line. He says the 3 points difference is a 14% difference and gives a mathematical formula for it.

He uses a star system for bet sizing:
0.5 star = 5.5%
1.0 star = 7.%
1.5 star = 9%
2.0 stars = 11%
2.5 stars = 13%
3.0 stars = 15%.

The bigger the point differential between his line and the books line the bigger the percentage difference, consequently the more stars the bet gets.

He sizes his bets based on the number of stars. He won't bet anything less than 0.5 stars/5.5%. The more stars the more he will bet on a game.

I posted this just to show you what Walters says. Not what I say. What Walters says. His bets are based in numbers and statistics, not opinion. So should we believe him?

[MDawg]

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

[AxelWolf]

There are a 'hundred' diffrent ways to be profitable in sports betting, but some people only think there are only a few ways it can and should be done.

[Half Smoke]

I posted this just to show you what Walters says. Not what I say. What Walters says. His bets are based in numbers and statistics, not opinion. So should we believe him?

yes, he should be believed
but that doesn't mean that other successful cappers have not profited without using mathematical models
they have - that is a sure thing
he was maybe the greatest ever - but still - his way is not the only way

and mickey - take another look at that chart you posted from Mike

and see that in about 2,000 games the away underdog had a 2.57% profit against the spread

and the home fave was -11.51% ats

it doesn't look random - not at all

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[accountinquestion]

Not every winning bettor uses the term EV but most do.

Yes it is EV. It is literally the expected value.

Although not every cash bettor may use EV I would hazard to guess they understand the word expected.

[accountinquestion]

The only difference is it is their expectation of the value and not the underlying empirical probability.

Even a coin won't be 50/50. People don't have a hissy because it is not 50/50 and may be .4999/.5001 . The coin will never be perfectly symmetrical and there will be some imperfections to keep it from .50/.50. Smart people will understand this but they also understand it is not a particularly useful convo to be had or even that keen of an observation.

Redietz is not one of these people.

Gm

[Half Smoke]

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I made a winning pick in week 10 - Cardinals at home (5-4 at the time) +1.5 over the Jets (3-6) at that time - the spread actually went to Cardinals +2 after my pick

I'm not bragging - I'm not a pro - but I believe I made a good pick - I can't do it often - I don't try much anymore - but this pick stood out

I believed the ploppies wrongly still thought Aaron Rodgers was very great even though he had been messing up badly

I thought it was a very good pick but there was absolutely no way I could say what the EV was

I wouldn't have a clue



Edit - this ESPN link shows some of the wildest bets from this year so far - mostly crazy parlays

but one bettor bet $ 3.1 million on the Eagles on the moneyline -700 to beat the Panthers at Circa Sports - it went down to the wire but he won it winning $442, 857


https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/st...st-wagers-2024


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[accountinquestion]

And you can very well be a winning bettor. Again, even without using EV you could win with the proper discipline.

Without EV it becomes hard to know when the bet is actually profitable. It becomes even more of an opinion. With some form of a methodology that derives expected value you will have something that tells you when the bet is actually profitable.

On pickem tournaments this concept is not needed.

Redietz talks about people using EV as some form of hocus pocus but the only hocus pocus is his 8 bullet points of word salad.

[mickeycrimm]

n

china
@chinamaniac
Some people say books cut you off if you bet too many props and while that can be true in some cases...

I have been betting about 8 props per game or so on LONG and RCPT plays with some normal yardage props mixed in over the past week with one book and the guy tripled my credit limit without me asking for an increase

Some of these guys just think you are crazy for betting volume on carnival props

[Tasha]

I have the Hard Rock Sports betting App and the tip off that you most likely will win is that the cash out option is MORE than you bet. For example, if you bet for Mika Vushka to win a Table Tennis Game against Nikolos Tiruka, and put $20 on Mika, you might see,"Cash out 25. A cash out that is higher than your bet most likely means that your bet is going to win. For example, I got a cash out option that was higher than my bet and I took the cash out option thinking"I win more than my bet by cashing out and low and behold, my cashed out bet WON! :/ I shouldn't have selected "Cash out," option. The opposite is true, that if you are offered a much lower cash out than your bet, like putting $20 on a Sports Player and only getting offered about $10 in a cash out choice, that most likely means your Sports Player choice will LOSE. :/