Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

I'll set the over/under at 666 for the amount of times Comrade has said Typsters/Gypsters and Wise Guys !

There's a reason for that. They are both public records managed by third parties. No forum stories. No maybe-they're-true tales of winning and glory. No anecdotes. No fairy tales. No self-promotional YouTube channels. No slick spiels with editing. Not some secret AP decoder ring. Actual week-to-week posted records. If you won, it's there in black and white. If you lost, it's there in black and white. No hiding. In the case of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- I was monitored for 11 years. I lost the first year. In the case of The Wise Guys Contest, 30 years of two verifiable plays every week of every football season.

Thanks for the opportunity to spell that out, Ozzy. Much appreciated.

[mickeycrimm]

Other than:

1) Being monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- the toughest consumer publication in the history of handicapping -- for more than a decade.
2) Two plays a week every football season for 30 years in The Wise Guys Contest, with one of the top two records over that span.
3) Being monitored by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, and The Sports Monitor.
4) Being the featured Op Ed writer to oppose President Graham Spanier of Penn State when he tried to ban college football betting.
5) Giving an actual gambling paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking.
6) Having "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians" published.
7) Being the only handicapper to post back-to-back college profit titles in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and three out of five years.
8) Vetted by Rick Hall (born again Christian trying to clean up the tout business in the 80's) and featured in Who's Who in Sports Gambling.
9) Featured every week in Marc Lawrence's PlayBook newsletter, available nationally on newsstands for more than a decade.
10) Winner of Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl.
11) Documented winner of 17 consecutive ATS games enroute to a 66-34 ATS mark.
12) Lately, picking up first place in TopBet's 2023 NFL Picks Contest, finishing first out of 1328 entrants.
13) And various and sundry found in the old web site: http://web.archive.org/web/200304231...itysports.com/


Other than these and a few more, I got nothin'.

Resume sent to Bob and Richard. Have you contacted them yet. Or have you chickenshitted out?

[mickeycrimm]

I'll set the over/under at 666 for the amount of times Comrade has said Typsters/Gypsters and Wise Guys !

There's a reason for that. They are both public records managed by third parties. No forum stories. No maybe-they're-true tales of winning and glory. No anecdotes. No fairy tales. No self-promotional YouTube channels. No slick spiels with editing. Not some secret AP decoder ring. Actual week-to-week posted records. If you won, it's there in black and white. If you lost, it's there in black and white. No hiding. In the case of "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- I was monitored for 11 years. I lost the first year. In the case of The Wise Guys Contest, 30 years of two verifiable plays every week of every football season.

Thanks for the opportunity to spell that out, Ozzy. Much appreciated.

There you have it, Ozzy. All us lowlife AP's just make lunch money. Only ditz makes the big bucks. You can tell by that mansion he lives in. That is, if he pays the tax bill. And if you try to learn anything about sports betting ditz will be there to tell you that you can't do it. Don't even try. Only he knows the truth and the light.

Ditz, take your track record and a dollar to McDonald's and I'm sure they will award you with a cup of coffee.

[Rob.Singer]

I believe red has just cancelled himself.

[jbjb]

Ya'll should look up Mickeys address. It's quite interesting.

[mickeycrimm]

duplicate

[mickeycrimm]

Ya'll should look up Mickeys address. It's quite interesting.

My mail goes to to someone else's address. I pay them to accept my mail, go through it, pull out all the good casino stuff and send me pics of it. I give them instructions over the phone. I do it like that because I don't spend much time in Great Falls anymore.

Wherever I'm at I use the offers that are close to my current location. I ain't driving a thousand miles for a 3 day room comp. I like to know I got room comp in Oklahoma when I'm actually in Oklahoma. Same for any other state. I pretty much live in casino hotels these days.

But one of the things that is changing is a lot of the casinos are going to email with their room/freeplay offers. I really like that because it doesn't matter where I'm at I'm getting up to date information. It's very convenient.

It looks like you finally decided to doxx me. You already partially doxxed me. That's to bad. It's your reputation, not mine. Keep it up and you will forever be known on VCT as a snitch. You are probably doxxing me behind the scenes anyway.

[monet]

Ya'll should look up Mickeys address. It's quite interesting.

My mail goes to to someone else's address. I pay them to accept my mail, go through it, pull out all the good casino stuff and send me pics of it. I give them instructions over the phone. I do it like that because I don't spend much time in Great Falls anymore.

Wherever I'm at I use the offers that are close to my current location. I ain't driving a thousand miles for a 3 day room comp. I like to know I got room comp in Oklahoma when I'm actually in Oklahoma. Same for any other state. I pretty much live in casino hotels these days.

But one of the things that is changing is a lot of the casinos are going to email with their room/freeplay offers. I really like that because it doesn't matter where I'm at I'm getting up to date information. It's very convenient.

It looks like you finally decided to doxx me. You already partially doxxed me. That's to bad. It's your reputation, not mine. Keep it up and you will forever be known on VCT as a snitch. You are probably doxxing me behind the scenes anyway.

Have you been asleep Mickey?
He has been outing himself as a Rat Fink for years now.

[Rob.Singer]

Cowardly punks like jbjb who just don't measure up, do stuff like that in order to curb their feelings of envy and inadequacy.

[AxelWolf]

Other than:

1) Being monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- the toughest consumer publication in the history of handicapping -- for more than a decade.
2) Two plays a week every football season for 30 years in The Wise Guys Contest, with one of the top two records over that span.
3) Being monitored by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, and The Sports Monitor.
4) Being the featured Op Ed writer to oppose President Graham Spanier of Penn State when he tried to ban college football betting.
5) Giving an actual gambling paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking.
6) Having "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians" published.
7) Being the only handicapper to post back-to-back college profit titles in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and three out of five years.
8) Vetted by Rick Hall (born again Christian trying to clean up the tout business in the 80's) and featured in Who's Who in Sports Gambling.
9) Featured every week in Marc Lawrence's PlayBook newsletter, available nationally on newsstands for more than a decade.
10) Winner of Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl.
11) Documented winner of 17 consecutive ATS games enroute to a 66-34 ATS mark.
12) Lately, picking up first place in TopBet's 2023 NFL Picks Contest, finishing first out of 1328 entrants.
13) And various and sundry found in the old web site: http://web.archive.org/web/200304231...itysports.com/


Other than these and a few more, I got nothin'.

Agian, I was just messing with you. I haven't a clue if you're the best at what you do or the worst. I think you know what you're doing and better than most of us. I don't take issue with that. I take issue with your... You must be a stellar specialized handicapper to make consistent long-term money via sports betting. THAT'S COMPLETE BULLSHIT!!! I know someone using a simple formula that's been doing it for years. I believe they are making around 3% but have to ask. I know others who are doing similar non-handicapping stuff and making good money.

I don't know how to and assess the contests in order to quantify one's skill, there are too many unknowns. For instance, I have taken either first or second in all the NFL contests I have participated in, but It's only been 3. Total earnings from the contests are about 20k. There were well over 5k entries (could've been 10k+ in two of the contests.) My win percentage in entered contests is significantly better than yours but I think we can both agree that's meaningless.


When you dedicate your career to something like this while entering 100's(?) of contests and entries, one is bound to win a few.
Look at what Dan did in the NFL. Does that mean Dan is an NFL guru or was it just an extremely good run? IDK

Let's talk about Top bet. How many weekly prizes did you win, and how many entries did you have? IIRC that's a free contest, but also a cheap $5 or $10 unlimited entry deal.

[redietz]

Other than:

1) Being monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- the toughest consumer publication in the history of handicapping -- for more than a decade.
2) Two plays a week every football season for 30 years in The Wise Guys Contest, with one of the top two records over that span.
3) Being monitored by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, and The Sports Monitor.
4) Being the featured Op Ed writer to oppose President Graham Spanier of Penn State when he tried to ban college football betting.
5) Giving an actual gambling paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking.
6) Having "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians" published.
7) Being the only handicapper to post back-to-back college profit titles in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and three out of five years.
8) Vetted by Rick Hall (born again Christian trying to clean up the tout business in the 80's) and featured in Who's Who in Sports Gambling.
9) Featured every week in Marc Lawrence's PlayBook newsletter, available nationally on newsstands for more than a decade.
10) Winner of Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl.
11) Documented winner of 17 consecutive ATS games enroute to a 66-34 ATS mark.
12) Lately, picking up first place in TopBet's 2023 NFL Picks Contest, finishing first out of 1328 entrants.
13) And various and sundry found in the old web site: http://web.archive.org/web/200304231...itysports.com/


Other than these and a few more, I got nothin'.

Agian, I was just messing with you. I haven't a clue if you're the best at what you do or the worst. I think you know what you're doing and better than most of us. I don't take issue with that. I take issue with your... You must be a stellar specialized handicapper to make consistent long-term money via sports betting. THAT'S COMPLETE BULLSHIT!!! I know someone using a simple formula that's been doing it for years. I believe they are making around 3% but have to ask. I know others who are doing similar non-handicapping stuff and making good money.

I don't know how to and assess the contests in order to quantify one's skill, there are too many unknowns. For instance, I have taken either first or second in all the NFL contests I have participated in, but It's only been 3. Total earnings from the contests are about 20k. There were well over 5k entries (could've been 10k+ in two of the contests.) My win percentage in entered contests is significantly better than yours but I think we can both agree that's meaningless.


When you dedicate your career to something like this while entering 100's(?) of contests and entries, one is bound to win a few.
Look at what Dan did in the NFL. Does that mean Dan is an NFL guru or was it just an extremely good run? IDK

Let's talk about Top bet. How many weekly prizes did you win, and how many entries did you have? IIRC that's a free contest, but also a cheap $5 or $10 unlimited entry deal.

Anyone can look at the site and see it for themselves. Everyone has three entries in the free contest. I won. I put eight in the paid bracket and finished second, tied for third, and tied for fifth. Picked up two or three weekly prizes, but it was all just pocket change. Had I known how few entries would be in the paid side (117), I would not have bothered. I didn't mention it because cashing was no big deal. I also didn't mention winning money in the TopBet Last Man Standing contests because it was no big deal. I cashed in both second-half-season contests by making it to the end. Didn't bother to mention it. I did not cash in the free season-long Last Man Standing at TopBet. I hate LMS contests, but I'll enter them.

Now winning out of 1328 entries -- that is a big deal. A test of skill.

I enter two primary free contests each season and have reported on them for a decade here. Heritage Sports and NorthBet. I finished 100-something in Heritage out of a couple thousand last season and tied for eighth in NorthBet (out of 500+) because I took whack job teams the last week in an attempt to win. TopBet was just the last couple years. So that is not "hundreds of contests."

Dan was an "NFL guru" this season. He was plugged in and in the zone. But it has to be put in the context of how he did in other sports, too, for a totality of effectiveness. McCusker used to argue that comparing different sports was apples and oranges. I did an ad one year demonstrating my record in football-only to the complete cross-sport records of other handicappers. I always counter-argued that you have to put someone in an overall context.

Are there any real long-term NFL gurus? I think not really. But there are gurus for college sports who know what they are doing in a comprehensive and savvy fashion.

I am not, by the way, the premiere contest player in this household. My better half, in fact, won a house in the Palace Station contest.

The old AP line, "I know someone" who wins at sports long term is the same as saying, "I know someone who wins at the lottery." It's forum tripe. I mean, how many APs do you know? And one wins? Good for him/her.

Picking one of out how many. Anecdotal. An unverifiable fable.

And, by the way, as a little dig. Counting open teasers as "half wins," and counting a middle shot that won the ML side, lost half a bet on the dog with points and pushed half a bet on the dog with points, I'm 10 units won, a half unit lost in the XFL. LOL. Without counting that profitable middle shot, I'm 9-0 units won in actual wagers.

The XFL, after all, is more or less college football.

[redietz]

For some "contest stories" from my youth:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...castaways.html


I have nothing bad to say, really, about Edmund Slick, the protagonist of the first story. Slick had a good handicapping reputation (I mean, if you can get past that he claimed to do it via astrology). He won more than he lost, and I never heard a bad client report about him. In fact, he was vetted and wound up in Hall Publishing's Who's Who in Sports Gambling, which occurred before the events of the story. So his reputation was quite good before he won the World Cup college title.

[mickeycrimm]

My mail goes to someone else's address. I pay them to accept my mail, go through it, pull out all the good casino stuff and send me pics of it. I give them instructions over the phone. I do it like that because I don't spend much time in Great Falls anymore.

Wherever I'm at I use the offers that are close to my current location. I ain't driving a thousand miles for a 3 day room comp. I like to know I got room comp in Oklahoma when I'm actually in Oklahoma. Same for any other state. I pretty much live in casino hotels these days.

But one of the things that is changing is a lot of the casinos are going to email with their room/freeplay offers. I really like that because it doesn't matter where I'm at I'm getting up to date information. It's very convenient.

It looks like you finally decided to doxx me. You already partially doxxed me. That's to bad. It's your reputation, not mine. Keep it up and you will forever be known on VCT as a snitch. You are probably doxxing me behind the scenes anyway.

I would get home after a couple of months on the road to find a mailbox full of casino offers. But unfortunately, a lot it would be expired, a lot of it would be close to expiration, a lot of it a thousand miles away. So I hired someone to receive my mail. They go thru it and email or text me pictures of the room/meal/freeplay offers while I'm actually out on the road.

They charge me $50 a month. Plus I taught them one machine play where they pick up an extra $500 to $1000 a month. They're on fixed income so like the extra money.

I bought a new vehicle a couple of months ago and they were gonna rip me off on the trade-in. So I currently have the $50 a month mail service fee waived in lieu of payment for the vehicle.

[mickeycrimm]

I found a short biographical sketch of Steve Fezzik. Here's some quotes:

"Fezzik is on record stating that knowing about football isn't important to bet on but rather finding the discrepencies in the odds is crucial."

Fezzik was an actuary. What I'm finding out about these top sportsbettors is they all have strong mathematical backgrounds. Yet redietz says opinion trumps math. So far I haven't seen anything on the math of sportsbetting by redietz. One has to wonder.

Anyways, here's the Fezzik biographical sketch:

https://www.legalsportsbetting.com/f.../steve-fezzik/

[mickeycrimm]

If anyone of us says anything about strategy in sportsbetting we get met with the "you don't know jackshit" routine from redietz. But look at what redietz is doing. He's not teaching anything nuts and bolts about sportsbetting. All he's doing is bragging about how good he is and how you don't know jackshit.

Something in the Steve Fezzik bio reminded me of Wendover back in 2006/7. I was there for the live poker, 9/6 jacks progressives, advantage slots, and video blackjack. There were a few guys holed up there I knew from Reno. They were working the lines and totals differences between the sports books. They hung out in the books. So on weekends I would sometimes join them.

There was also an older guy there that bet sports. I got to know him pretty good. He told me some things about sports betting. He told me that at one time he was the biggest bookie in Salt Lake City. But he got busted and they put him out of business. After that he spent a lot of time in Wendover betting sports.

He was actually giving me the scoop on Wendover sports betting. I didn't know anything about sports betting. Still don't. But this guy had some interesting stories. There were 3 books in Wendover, one at the Rainbow, one at Montego Bay, and one at the Wendover Nugget. The Rainbow and Montego Bay books were owned by Peppermill/Reno. The Wendover book was owned by Leroy's who had satellite books all over the state.

This is some of the stuff this old bookie told me:

Leroy's was known as a sharp line that never budged.

Rainbow/Montego Bay had it's own money pool not mixed with Peppermill Reno. They put the lines and totals up on Mondays. The lines pretty much didn't change thru the week. It was close to game time when the lines and totals would move.

Most of the business came out of Salt Lake City. They were heavy favorite bettors. When the money came in lopsided, Rainbow/Montego Bay could move lines two points or more within a couple hours of game time, always towards the favorites. And totals could move 3 points or more.

So he was always in the book on game day waiting for the lines to move.
----------------

The football betting was capped at $500 at Rainbow/Montego Bay. Any attempt at a higher bet had to go thru the manager. So this bookie told me a funny story. He got the manager out to approve a 2K bet on a favorite, the line was -7.5 on the board. While he was digging the money out the manager moved the line to -9. So he tells the manager he'll take the dog at +9. The manager got pissed but cut the ticket anyway. The favorite won by 7 points. LOL

So a couple of days ago I got to thinking about this old bookie I met in Wendover. I found this article. I think this is the guy:

https://www.deseret.com/1992/1/5/189...ears-probation

Oh, and in the Fezzik bio:

"One of Fezzik's favorite tactics is waiting right before a game begins. If the line moves remarkably in one direction Fezzik likes to bet the other way knowing the books move their lines to balance their books."

Same thing the old bookie told me 17 years ago.

PD: Ditz, spare us the asinine drivel about $500 bettors.

[accountinquestion]

For some "contest stories" from my youth:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...castaways.html


I have nothing bad to say, really, about Edmund Slick, the protagonist of the first story. Slick had a good handicapping reputation (I mean, if you can get past that he claimed to do it via astrology). He won more than he lost, and I never heard a bad client report about him. In fact, he was vetted and wound up in Hall Publishing's Who's Who in Sports Gambling, which occurred before the events of the story. So his reputation was quite good before he won the World Cup college title.

Redietz is fascinating. Nowhere have I ever seen someone so obsessed with contests. Even his blog is the same ol stuff. I'm not going to insult him too much, I've done that enough. It makes sense though why he has no concept of EV. When you are picking a side in a contest, you really don't need to know whether the edge overcomes the vig. Therefore Redietz never had any reason to learn any of that stuff. However it would behoove him to not ridicule it if he wants to be taken seriously for what he has done.

Also, I have to wonder how many of these contest results are verifiable by us. Given how Redietz goes out of his way to say no anonymous person should be believed but then reference some old contest. I googled tipsters and gypsters and google was like, '0 results found'. Can we even verify all these contests? If not, what percentage? If you can't verify it then it is literally no different from an anonymous AP making claims.

As someone pointed out, you can nail a few tournaments and use that as your proof. That can easily be simple luck. Once needs to know how many were entered total.

To make money betting year after year is a skill because you've proven you've withstood the test of time.

I wonder why redietz' integrity sports website went away? Anyway if you click the 'about' button you see he has a BA in English. He's not an actuary or anything like that. No wonder he has disdain for numbers.

[accountinquestion]

If anyone of us says anything about strategy in sportsbetting we get met with the "you don't know jackshit" routine from redietz. But look at what redietz is doing. He's not teaching anything nuts and bolts about sportsbetting. All he's doing is bragging about how good he is and how you don't know jackshit.

Something in the Steve Fezzik bio reminded me of Wendover back in 2006/7. I was there for the live poker, 9/6 jacks progressives, advantage slots, and video blackjack. There were a few guys holed up there I knew from Reno. They were working the lines and totals differences between the sports books. They hung out in the books. So on weekends I would sometimes join them.

There was also an older guy there that bet sports. I got to know him pretty good. He told me some things about sports betting. He told me that at one time he was the biggest bookie in Salt Lake City. But he got busted and they put him out of business. After that he spent a lot of time in Wendover betting sports.

He was actually giving me the scoop on Wendover sports betting. I didn't know anything about sports betting. Still don't. But this guy had some interesting stories. There were 3 books in Wendover, one at the Rainbow, one at Montego Bay, and one at the Wendover Nugget. The Rainbow and Montego Bay books were owned by Peppermill/Reno. The Wendover book was owned by Leroy's who had satellite books all over the state.

This is some of the stuff this old bookie told me:

Leroy's was known as a sharp line that never budged.

Rainbow/Montego Bay had it's own money pool not mixed with Peppermill Reno. They put the lines and totals up on Mondays. The lines pretty much didn't change thru the week. It was close to game time when the lines and totals would move.

Most of the business came out of Salt Lake City. They were heavy favorite bettors. When the money came in lopsided, Rainbow/Montego Bay could move lines two points or more within a couple hours of game time, always towards the favorites. And totals could move 3 points or more.

So he was always in the book on game day waiting for the lines to move.
----------------

The football betting was capped at $500 at Rainbow/Montego Bay. Any attempt at a higher bet had to go thru the manager. So this bookie told me a funny story. He got the manager out to approve a 2K bet on a favorite, the line was -7.5 on the board. While he was digging the money out the manager moved the line to -9. So he tells the manager he'll take the dog at +9. The manager got pissed but cut the ticket anyway. The favorite won by 7 points. LOL

So a couple of days ago I got to thinking about this old bookie I met in Wendover. I found this article. I think this is the guy:

https://www.deseret.com/1992/1/5/189...ears-probation

Oh, and in the Fezzik bio:

"One of Fezzik's favorite tactics is waiting right before a game begins. If the line moves remarkably in one direction Fezzik likes to bet the other way knowing the books move their lines to balance their books."

Same thing the old bookie told me 17 years ago.

PD: Ditz, spare us the asinine drivel about $500 bettors.

I was underrolled but took up sports betting at one point. THere was Sports Interaction and they catered to naive sports bettors and shaded the line against the public but wised up real fast. As those in the business say - They had very weak lines. Wish I had been rolled more and not went bust or maybe I would be betting sports to this day.

Also as an aside since we're dropping stories and such. I've been to one Superbowl party where I tagged along with someone. I bet $100 just for whatever and the other guys bet 400k-500k total. Was brutal when they lost. 2008 Giants/Patriots. These were real pros though and that will be the last Superbowl party I will ever attend. I bet they never touched contests. Apparently during superbowl the limits go way up especially when not betting the public's side.

[MisterV]

Hey Mickey, just curious: you're such a road runner, the miles must have piled up on the car you just sold to your buddy.

How many miles did you put on it before letting it go?

[regnis]

I am not going to get into the EV nonsense of this and the Regnis thread, and by no means am I going to try to speak for Redietz. I have been involved in sports betting and horse racing for over 50 years. When I was seriously involved with sports betting (I gave it up when they legalized betting horses nationwide), we had contacts at almost every team (not the small schools) that would update us on injuries, problems, etc. Certainly, this gave us some degree of advantage. But it was only one part of handicapping. Like Redietz, I would never disclose, even now, what other factors we used. I am sure that there are modern algorithms and computer applications that can have success. But in my opinion, and I think what Redietz is saying, is that nothing can replace 50 years of study, knowledge, and experience.
Similarly, in horse racing, I know definitely there are computer programs and algorithms that are successful. However, again, I have over 50 years of experience that cannot be replaced. I have studied breeding for 40 years; I try to either watch every race looking for "troubled trips" or at least review the charts of every race. Yes--it takes quite a bit of time and effort yet I love every minute of it. I know trainer tendencies. Again, I would never disclose exactly how I handicap a race. In the old days, when I could only bet local races, I befriended the head of track maintenance and would call him every morning to see what he had done to the track that morning. Was it rolled or harrowed. What was the depth. How deep was the turf course and had it been watered. You can't replace that kind of info at a cost of a bottle of good scotch. Is that EV? Probably, but I am not a believer in EV.
Like Redietz has stated, it still all comes down to my opinion, whether right or wrong. But in my mind, that opinion is based upon more knowledge than the average bettor, and that is my advantage.

[redietz]

What regnis said.

You know, last week I launched on a Seattle XFL ML at -124 because I knew it would move. Today I launched on Houston -7 1/2 (buying it to -7) for roughly 2K because I thought it much more likely that it would go up rather than down. I also opened teasers on the game for additional money.

I could wind up being wrong. I could have been wrong last week. Or I could wait for the AP-touted "soft numbers" to reveal themselves.

Let me wax eloquent on those "soft numbers." I have a friend who was banned from the QBid sites because he wrote his own program that out-performed other bidders and other bidding programs. It had automatic responses to various parameters, much like a stock market program, only faster. He wrote a cross-referencing program that furnished line updates across a bunch of sports books for me -- I was on maybe a ten second delay from actual line move action. You know what? The program had some value, but it wasn't really a game changer. It was, in fact, a bit of a distraction because I wasn't going to be auto-betting based on simultaneous gaps in lines. Those gaps were going to be small when viewed simultaneously. My heuristics regarding where the lines would go were more valuable than the program. If I had to choose between that program and my knowledge base/opinion, my opinion was clearly the bigger advantage.

With the Seattle ML, I wound up not taking the auto-profit via arbitrage. I was a greedy pig and wound up buying half a unit back on the underdog +3 (it lost) and the underdog +4 at game kickoff (it pushed). I won a bit more being a greedy pig than if I had simply arbitraged.

Did I do an analysis of which was the better deal, the arbitrage or the middle shot? Yes, I did. Was it a math formula featuring EV? Well, you could call it that. I call it "my opinion."

Anybody can do freshman college probability in his head. If ballparking numbers makes you feel better when you call it EV, then by all means pretend. I have a friend who taught college probability. If I need actual cipherin' (as Jed Clampett says), I ask him. If I need something complex done, I can ask the dude a block away who allegedly is one of about two hundred people who actually understands general relativity. I have yet to ask that dude anything except about a ride to the airport.