Originally Posted by
AxelWolf
Originally Posted by
Half Smoke
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doing nothing other than betting NFL away underdogs - an amateur would surely outperform many of those who call themselves pros
tweaking it as I have done, and instead betting only on away underdogs who get 4 points or fewer and the outperformance of so called pros is large
I've posted this before - anyway - I've tracked the last 4 regular seasons of the above and got 159-117 - 57.6% winners - pushes not considered - 10% r.o.i.
I will continue tracking every upcoming season and posting the seasonal and combined results
all of this can be verified by anybody who wants to do the work at covers.com
what's also very interesting - to me anyway - is that although the home fave is loved and over bet against the spread -
it is just the opposite on the money line - at least with extreme faves - usually at home - the underdog is over bet
that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts
this has been well documented in horse racing - not so much in other sports - but I believe it is a for sure thing - at least when it comes to extreme faves and dogs
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I'm definitely thinking about betting this season while using bonuses. 57.6% seems fairly strong. I dont know what kind of units I want to bet since my intentions are to roll over sports bonuses. I would be happy to beat the vig and break even on the games themselves.
Is there any data on the preseason games, can that be easily obtained and figured out?
Any thoughts on why this shouldn't also apply to preseason?
I'm curious about the data mined. I assume with somthing like this and other systems it's always best to make your bets at the last minute possible to get closer to the true line. Does anyone know if the data mined is based on when the lines first come out or at the closing line?
I have also been informed that they value home-field advantage differently now and this system isn't as good nowadays.
I used the line I saw in the very early a.m. the day of the game - and I didn't use the best line - I used the most common line -
I think generally speaking betting the fave is better early and betting the dog is better late - so my effort did not take advantage of that
I didn't do this with computers - I did it old school with paper and pen - and plan to do it this coming season
I'm not sure how strong the 57.6% is considering the no. of trials
I don't believe pre-season data would be valuable because I think many teams are trying out stuff and are not very strongly driven to win
I did the seasons ending in '23, '22, '21, and '20
my suggestion is that you do 4 more seasons yourself
all of this data is available on covers.com - they use the closing line
the link is week 1 of the 2018-2019 season
as to your comment about the change in how they value home field advantage might make the system useless - I haven't heard that - I don't know - it's possible - things change - there's never any guarantees
and also - Mike's data linked - almost 2,000 games he tracked all of the away underdogs and got a 2.57% r.o.i.
if you can make money with promos and bonuses if you about break even that might be really good too
if you decide to do this you should have 2 advantages that I didn't have
you can use the closing line - which should be better for the dogs as they tend to bet the fave down late - I didn't do this because I wanted to make it as easy as possible to do
and you can use the best line you see if you have accounts at several different books
I didn't do that because I didn't feel it would be as accurate if I did that
those 2 advantages - compared to what I did - are of pretty fair significance
https://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/ma...ate=2018-09-06
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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