Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Almost spot on mickeycrimm. My wagers are $300, as that is the max they will allow me to bet. I don't think that is the max for everybody, I think that is the max for me because they want to force the player to grind through that rollover requirement, thinking they will eat away at the bonus money.

My calculations were that it almost didn't matter how I made my picks as long as I didn't run really bad, I would make money. and that is basically a paraphrase of what Axelwolf said, which piqued my interest in the first place. So rather than rely on my own methods of picking like the ploppy sports bettor I have always been, I decided to try some techniques that had a track record of being successful. Things like Half Smoke's first two weeks NFL underdog play, Dan Druff's picks and the underdog +3.5, )7.5 plays.

In my mind there was no guarantee these past "trends" would win this year or going forward, but it was as least as good as any method of picking I could come up with. And it so happens they all did well again.

Add in the half juice Fridays on one of the sportsbooks I am using, and a little bit of cash back bonus on another book, (4 books in total), and I am hoping the return closer to 20k, unless I run bad the rest of the way which is only 3 weeks.

In the end I am not a professional sports bettor and never claimed to be. And I have lifetime results to prove that. I am an AP and one that other AP's often criticize for being a one trick pony. I read the sports betting discussions here for the past 6 months to a year and this seems like an advantage play, assuming you actually get paid, which will be the next hurdle.

Redietz, the great sports betting handicapper for the last 40 years, just apparently has a problem with APs, both in general and finding advantage plays in sports betting. But that really is his problem not ours. He just wants to keep crowing about what a great sports bet guy he has been for 40 years and linking himself to Billy Waters, every chance he gets. I don't doubt some of that, but don't care all that much either. I am just applying some advantage play activities, which I am calling "bonus whoring". Not even sure if that is the right term. Don't care. I found something (thanks to discussion here) I believe plays at an advantage and am doing it. I don't really care if Redietz feelings are hurt. I think that is weird. But isn't most things with this guy.

Betting $300 instead of $330 would mean 333 picks instead of 303 but the EV is the same.

[AxelWolf]

Well fuck, I didn't even get any touting kickbacks from KJ.

[monet]

Once again you all talk a bunch of bullshit not showing any picks or wins.
I do... (See Smart Money Thread)

All 3 games covered the puck line today, but I bet like a scared little girl.
I also had the Blues ML and Preds Puck Line but decided against it.
Knights are just crushing it, but I wasn't sure how they would do, on the road with, all the Benard Hype.
I did bet 300 more than I originally planned.
And I took a 3-hour nap before wagering so the Avalanche Line moved on me, and I almost stayed off it.


Whatever... You guys are the pros... I'm just here to party, living in Vegas for over 30 years now and honestly can't be stopped.
Even when they beat me, I'm still the best...

[PositiveVariance]

Once again you all talk a bunch of bullshit not showing any picks or wins.
I do... (See Smart Money Thread)

All 3 games covered the puck line today, but I bet like a scared little girl.
I also had the Blues ML and Preds Puck Line but decided against it.
Knights are just crushing it, but I wasn't sure how they would do, on the road with, all the Benard Hype.
I did bet 300 more than I originally planned.
And I took a 3-hour nap before wagering so the Avalanche Line moved on me, and I almost stayed off it.


Whatever... You guys are the pros... I'm just here to party, living in Vegas for over 30 years now and honestly can't be stopped.
Even when they beat me, I'm still the best...

Favorites 4 the Win
Nice

[monet]

Once again you all talk a bunch of bullshit not showing any picks or wins.
I do... (See Smart Money Thread)

All 3 games covered the puck line today, but I bet like a scared little girl.
I also had the Blues ML and Preds Puck Line but decided against it.
Knights are just crushing it, but I wasn't sure how they would do, on the road with, all the Benard Hype.
I did bet 300 more than I originally planned.
And I took a 3-hour nap before wagering so the Avalanche Line moved on me, and I almost stayed off it.


Whatever... You guys are the pros... I'm just here to party, living in Vegas for over 30 years now and honestly can't be stopped.
Even when they beat me, I'm still the best...

Favorites 4 the Win
Nice

Yeah, but if you have followed my track record on this site for the last 3 years, you know that is a rarity for me.
When you bet the Puck Line you are betting dogs and usually around the +150 to +200 range.
Compounded Betting with large pluses will get you in the 60 to 120 to 1 on your dough.
Betting the favorites is not exactly my forte or strategy.
I just bet like a girl today.
I have no excuse but I'm not mad about winning 2220 in the book today.
I'm a little upset that I didn't follow it up with a 3-team puck line parlay as I would normally do in this situation.
I'm also a little upset that I didn't throw in a 6 or 7 teamer that would have cashed.
We make choices and we live with them.

The NHL is basically the only sport that I know of that you can do this with relative ease.
It doesn't work in the NBA or NFL like this.
It works in the MLB but not good enough.

[redietz]

[Gottlob]

Oh, wow! Another 2:42 video.

Jesus, I miss the days of some of those lines from you, too. Ha.

Jesus, I miss the days of some of those lines from you, too. Ha.

--->

Life and Times of Jesus the Messiah.

The Feast of the Holy Name of Jesus.

There's a moose loose in this hoose.

Youth Homelessness Matters Day.

https://anagram-solver.net/Jesus,%20....?partial=true

[mickeycrimm]

Just got word that a reporter from The Daily Chuckle is going to be there.

[accountinquestion]

Just got word that a reporter from The Daily Chuckle is going to be there.

Not nice at all. However the rube count is going to be much larger in bumfuck TN.

GL Redietz.

[kewlJ]

Is this Johnson City, (which sounds like the name of a town in a porno movie, or maybe the title of a porno movie), the new capitol of sports betting or something? Why would such a discussion NOT take place in Las Vegas, where Redeitz claims he spends 6 months every year. Could probably reserve a booth in one of the casino coffee shops and it would accommodate everyone that is attending.

Look, I have nothing against Redietz. I still think it is more likely than not (a phrase used by mickeycrimm about Rob's double up bug claim) that Redietz did in fact support himself or make significant money from many years in the sports betting arena. It does seem rather bizarre that he is writing books and touting a relationship with Billy Waters and come to find out that relationship lasted only a few months some decades ago. But whatever.

What I don't like about Redietz lately has been how he has turned nasty, attacking AP's, not just myself with the little bonus whoring I am currently doing, but any AP finding advantage plays in the sports betting area today, of which there are many with all the bonus and opportunities. It is like Redietz thinks that players doing something to win now-a-days,, has any refection on him or what he did for decades.

[redietz]

Get your facts straight, KewlJ. LOL. No chance of that, eh? Little double entendre there.

Nothing like hearing reports from the advantage play kid, who argues that being 8-4 makes one "two games over .500."

Your sports betting stories are as nerve-and-logic-jangling as anything MDawg has written about blackjack. You don't see the irony to your being "the MDawg of sports betting?"

Anyone betting in Las Vegas from 1985-2010 was immersed in a sea of Billy Walters influence and associates. Many, many things happened to relatively famous people because of the Billy Walters gestalt. There was no way to go through a week without rubbing shoulders with Computer Group associates or Walters' runners. I didn't suddenly learn about Walters because I was recruited and worked for him for six months. Far from it. What the book does is it enables people who were there to connect dots on a host of significant events.

[kewlJ]

Get your facts straight, KewlJ. LOL. No chance of that, eh? Little double entendre there.

Nothing like hearing reports from the advantage play kid, who argues that being 8-4 makes one "two games over .500."

Your sports betting stories are as nerve-and-logic-jangling as anything MDawg has written about blackjack. You don't see the irony to your being "the MDawg of sports betting?"

Anyone betting in Las Vegas from 1985-2010 was immersed in a sea of Billy Walters influence and associates. Many, many things happened to relatively famous people because of the Billy Walters gestalt. There was no way to go through a week without rubbing shoulders with Computer Group associates or Walters' runners. I didn't suddenly learn about Walters because I was recruited and worked for him for six months. Far from it. What the book does is it enables people who were there to connect dots on a host of significant events.

"Advantage play kid', hun? Is that your attempt to belittle me. Wow I am crushed. I am in my 40's and in another 2 months will end 20 years of supporting myself from advantage play and card counting. All that comment did was highlight your contempt for some winning doing something at an advantage that you thinks minimizes your accomplishments.

Your continuing rant about games over .500 is just terminology. Nothing more. I continue to believe that if 6-6 is .500 (and it is), that one game better than .500 would be 7-5. That means you won game above the .500 mark. But again in the end, it means nothing. It is just terminology.

At the end of week 2, when I was 56-31, I expressed those results 3 way. I said +25, I said 25 games over .500 and I posted the exact numbers 56-31, so there could be no confusion. Turns out my saying 25 games over .500 was incorrect for reasons I have stated. But either way, it means nothing it is just terminology. I made it cystal clear what I was talking about by posting the exact numbers.

Not that it matters, but a poor weekend this weekend (particularly college) and I am 136-138 (with 7 pushes). First time this season I have dipped below .500 but still close enough that this whole AP play will have a good return and that is all I was ever after. I am not looking to displace you as the best sports bettor on the forum or whatever you think you are, so just calm down fella.

As for whatever you are doing trying to document the history of sports gambling from 1985-2010, good luck whatever that is about. I was a toddler in 1985, so only have a passing interest. But if it is important to you, go for it.

[redietz]

KewlJ, you do realize you are doing many of the same things you have gone apeshit over MDawg doing regarding blackjack?

1) You set bad strategical examples. You are up 22 net games and continue betting angles to work off a bonus even though you know nothing about what you're doing, and thereby blow the 22 net games.

2) You use lingo and language with no sense of conventions, propriety, or correctness. Then you double down and argue that it's okay. Go find an example in a legitimate sports column of the last 50 years where 8-4 is "two games over .500." It's ridiculous. How many hundreds of thousands of sports columns have been written in 50 years? You don't even bother to verify that you're wrong and then report it.

3) You try to use calculations for random events and apply them to non-random events and think nothing of it.

4) You blather on, defending yourself even when you're obviously wrong, thereby confusing inexperienced gamblers.

5) You set a bad sports betting example for inexperienced gamblers, which you criticize MDawg for doing vis-a-vis blackjack.

6) You cherry pick phrases and then present straw man arguments using those phrases.


An example of (6) is that you say I spend six months a year in Las Vegas. I have never once, in 10K posts over half a dozen forums, said that. And I haven't spent more than two weeks at a go in Las Vegas for several years, which I have reported here. But you ignore the facts, and you are worse than MDawg because at least MDawg posts direct quotes rather than summarizing what isn't true and hoping people believe it.

Have a good one.

[MisterV]

What the book does is it enables people who were there to connect dots on a host of significant events.

How much is devoted to him feloniously engaging in insider trading, being convicted, and then pardoned by the orange oaf?

My question for the experts: How much did that pardon cost him?

[kewlJ]

redietz, why can't you understand that I am not handicapping these games trying to pick winners. the advantage or +EV part comes from the bonus money, not having a winning record. A player could flip a coin or throw a dart at a dart board to pick the games and unless he ran extraordinarily bad, and make money because of the bonuses.

It just so happened that the methods I was using the first 2 weeks ran very good. And two of those methods were specific to the first 2 weeks only.

[MDawg]

REDietz, both you and AccountInQuestion have laid down more than enough evidence to establish that UNKewlJ is lying once again - fabricating all these sports bet.

Guess who said this UNKewlJ?

He's pretty much a pathological liar you can't believe anything he says. But also probably a sociopath and they have no guilt no shame no embarrassment. They simply make up lies to cover the other lies.

Could it be perhaps that well known AP you used to think is on your side?

But it was so well said I decided to just adopt it for myself.

[mickeycrimm]

What the book does is it enables people who were there to connect dots on a host of significant events.

How much is devoted to him feloniously engaging in insider trading, being convicted, and then pardoned by the orange oaf?

My question for the experts: How much did that pardon cost him?

He did most of his sentence then was let go because of covid. The pardon came after the release. In his book he spent more time on his troubles with the law than sportsbetting. He blamed Mickleson for going to jail.

[mickeycrimm]

KewlJ, you do realize you are doing many of the same things you have gone apeshit over MDawg doing regarding blackjack?

1) You set bad strategical examples. You are up 22 net games and continue betting angles to work off a bonus even though you know nothing about what you're doing, and thereby blow the 22 net games.

2) You use lingo and language with no sense of conventions, propriety, or correctness. Then you double down and argue that it's okay. Go find an example in a legitimate sports column of the last 50 years where 8-4 is "two games over .500." It's ridiculous. How many hundreds of thousands of sports columns have been written in 50 years? You don't even bother to verify that you're wrong and then report it.

3) You try to use calculations for random events and apply them to non-random events and think nothing of it.

4) You blather on, defending yourself even when you're obviously wrong, thereby confusing inexperienced gamblers.

5) You set a bad sports betting example for inexperienced gamblers, which you criticize MDawg for doing vis-a-vis blackjack.

6) You cherry pick phrases and then present straw man arguments using those phrases.


An example of (6) is that you say I spend six months a year in Las Vegas. I have never once, in 10K posts over half a dozen forums, said that. And I haven't spent more than two weeks at a go in Las Vegas for several years, which I have reported here. But you ignore the facts, and you are worse than MDawg because at least MDawg posts direct quotes rather than summarizing what isn't true and hoping people believe it.

Have a good one.

KJ: My record is 56-31
Ditz: you chould have changed your betting strategy when you got 25 games above .500
Mickey: 56 and 31 is not 25 games above .500.
Ditz: No sports column has ever said 8-4 is two games above .500
Mickey: But 56 and 31 is not 25 games above .500
Ditz: KJ shoulda changed strategy when he got 25 games above .500
Mickey: KJ was never 25 games above .500
Ditz: Don't confuse me with the facts

[mickeycrimm]

KewlJ, you do realize you are doing many of the same things you have gone apeshit over MDawg doing regarding blackjack?

1) You set bad strategical examples. You are up 22 net games and continue betting angles to work off a bonus even though you know nothing about what you're doing, and thereby blow the 22 net games.

2) You use lingo and language with no sense of conventions, propriety, or correctness. Then you double down and argue that it's okay. Go find an example in a legitimate sports column of the last 50 years where 8-4 is "two games over .500." It's ridiculous. How many hundreds of thousands of sports columns have been written in 50 years? You don't even bother to verify that you're wrong and then report it.

3) You try to use calculations for random events and apply them to non-random events and think nothing of it.

4) You blather on, defending yourself even when you're obviously wrong, thereby confusing inexperienced gamblers.

5) You set a bad sports betting example for inexperienced gamblers, which you criticize MDawg for doing vis-a-vis blackjack.

6) You cherry pick phrases and then present straw man arguments using those phrases.


An example of (6) is that you say I spend six months a year in Las Vegas. I have never once, in 10K posts over half a dozen forums, said that. And I haven't spent more than two weeks at a go in Las Vegas for several years, which I have reported here. But you ignore the facts, and you are worse than MDawg because at least MDawg posts direct quotes rather than summarizing what isn't true and hoping people believe it.

Have a good one.

Ditz, you're clutching at straws. The thing is, you had plenty of time to unload on an amateur sports bettor here. That would be Druff. Sure, he had a good NFL season last year. But look at his results for the past few years in Hockey, Basketball, Baseball, NFL, and college football. Oh, that's right, you did watch all that in the sportsbetting section. He didn't make any money until that one lucky season. Thru the whole thing you never put up the "Somewhere Over The Rainbow" video. Never criticized him. Never talked shit to him.

You could have fired a trillion insults at Druff but you didn't. You actually brown nosed him. So why are you blasting AP's that are now just doing what Druff did, betting sports? It don't make any sense. Unless....you are doing it because your feelings are hurt.

And now you've moved the goalposts. You went from "shoulda changed when you got 25 games above .500" to "shoulda changed when you got 25 games ahead." Zigging and zagging, dude.

[accountinquestion]

What the book does is it enables people who were there to connect dots on a host of significant events.

How much is devoted to him feloniously engaging in insider trading, being convicted, and then pardoned by the orange oaf?

My question for the experts: How much did that pardon cost him?

And was he an informant?