Advantage Keno Play

[Treeshade]

This is not KJ's quote. Unowme said this in post #8 of this thread.

I am not even a math guy. But math is present and key to everything in life. The more you understand and know, the better off you will be. I wish I understood more.

If you did maybe youd understand how unlikely your more fabulous bullshit is.

Like what? Give me an example of something I have claimed or said that really defies the math? Mdawg claimed he won 60 straight hands at blackjack which Wizard put the odds at 47 quadillion to 1 (which is apparently what comes after trillion). So tell me what I have ever said that defies math like this? Or many of Singer claims?

Just because you don't believe something.....don't want to believe something, doesn't make it a math defying claim. Math defying is Mdawgs 60 straight blackjack wins, or Alan's 18 y.o. in a row.

I did have an incident that I suspect was very long odds against. If you play enough you will see some strange things. the incident I am referring to I wrote about in 2011, calling it the perfect shoe. I didn't win every hand or round as the name might suggest, I lost a few hands early on (smaller bets), but once the count got positive to the point that I was betting my max bet, I didn't lose a hand or round. Out of about 30+ rounds (I can only approximate), I had 2 push situations, one a push and one a split where I won one/lost one. Every other hand was a win. I am guessing the math of that was some fairly long odds (certainly not 47 quadillion to 1), but long.

But I would like to hear what you think I have said that defied the math and odds.

The sheer volume of forum post you have made across multiple websites defies Math. There Just isn’t enough time left in a day for you to actually be in a casino to make money.

[MDawg]

When I think of people who don't care what other people are saying about them on the Internet... I think of kewlJ.

Another maxim as applied to UNKewLyingJ, is that...the more he says something like "it changes nothing for me" the more apparent it is that he's desperate to try to establish that he's not lying.

A lot has been said about you. I find it telling that you only focus on a few things. Especially the male prostitute thing. I am inclined to believe the things you focus in on refuting are the one's that hit closest to home.

[kewlJ]

The sheer volume of forum post you have made across multiple websites defies Math. There Just isn’t enough time left in a day for you to actually be in a casino to make money.

This really isn't so. There is a case to be made that if someone wanted to, they could almost figure out when I play, based on when I post. Posting on forums is what I have done for entertainment for many years. My brother and current BF are big gamers and spend 6-8 hours a night playing video games. I watch sports and post on forums.

And in the past couple years as the time I have played the local circuit, weekdays diminished due to database and heat reasons and concerns, I have posted even more, during the day, (like now).

There is a case to be made, online forum has been very detrimental to me and several AP friends and acquaintances make that case frequently. But there is plenty of time, if that is what someone chooses to do.

[kewlJ]

Mdawg, YOU have an agenda. As part of that agenda you lie about not just me but everyone that publicly states they don't believe you and the great Mdawg adventure tale. There is a list of people at that true passages forum that you started entire threads about making up lies, including axelwolf, myself and other known APs. And you have done so here an at GF as well. If someone, anyone says they don't believe you, or challenges anything you say, you make up lies about them, often preposterous lies.

And then you privately message others on the forum that are receptive to your game to repeat those lies and attacks. People you have privately messaged have TOLD me that you have done this. And Dan Druff caught you doing so.

All because of whatever this stupid story telling agenda of yours is about?


It isn't personal with me. At least didn't start out that way until some of you guys make it personal with years of attacks and attempts to discredit. It is just that you gambling claims just aren't real. They aren't the way things work. You say casinos doesn't care about winning players. That is just not true. No pit or table game supervisor is allowing a player to spread $1-50 ($100-$5000) at double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning $60,000. And patting them on the back and telling them "well done". These people would be out of a job the next day. And this type of shit is what you have claimed for 5 years now!

Yes, players can beat blackjack by card counting and other advantage plays. But they have to work at it. And most of that work involves figuring out how to play and still be allowed to play. Winning machine players or APs have eyes on them from surveillance only. And there are a lot of machine players in the casino so a machine AP has to do something that stands out to draw attention. Table game AP's have not only surveillance, but actual people monitoring right there at the game in the form of pit and even dealers, who will inform.

What you are claiming is just NOT the way it works. And the answer you have when real players that know how things work say that is to attack them with completely made up lies and shit.

What the fuck is the matter with you? Is telling this fantasy, THIS important to you?

[Treeshade]

Mdawg, YOU have an agenda. As part of that agenda you lie about not just me but everyone that publicly states they don't believe you and the great Mdawg adventure tale. There is a list of people at that true passages forum that you started entire threads about making up lies, including axelwolf, myself and other known APs. And you have done so here an at GF as well. If someone, anyone says they don't believe you, or challenges anything you say, you make up lies about them, often preposterous lies.

And then you privately message others on the forum that are receptive to your game to repeat those lies and attacks. People you have privately messaged have TOLD me that you have done this. And Dan Druff caught you doing so.

All because of whatever this stupid story telling agenda of yours is about?


It isn't personal with me. At least didn't start out that way until some of you guys make it personal with years of attacks and attempts to discredit. It is just that you gambling claims just aren't real. They aren't the way things work. You say casinos doesn't care about winning players. That is just not true. No pit or table game supervisor is allowing a player to spread $1-50 ($100-$5000) at double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning $60,000. And patting them on the back and telling them "well done". These people would be out of a job the next day. And this type of shit is what you have claimed for 5 years now!

Yes, players can beat blackjack by card counting and other advantage plays. But they have to work at it. And most of that work involves figuring out how to play and still be allowed to play. Winning machine players or APs have eyes on them from surveillance only. And there are a lot of machine players in the casino so a machine AP has to do something that stands out to draw attention. Table game AP's have not only surveillance, but actual people monitoring right there at the game in the form of pit and even dealers, who will inform.

What you are claiming is just NOT the way it works. And the answer you have when real players that know how things work say that is to attack them with completely made up lies and shit.

What the fuck is the matter with you? Is telling this fantasy, THIS important to you?

Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.

[Treeshade]

Mdawg, YOU have an agenda. As part of that agenda you lie about not just me but everyone that publicly states they don't believe you and the great Mdawg adventure tale. There is a list of people at that true passages forum that you started entire threads about making up lies, including axelwolf, myself and other known APs. And you have done so here an at GF as well. If someone, anyone says they don't believe you, or challenges anything you say, you make up lies about them, often preposterous lies.

And then you privately message others on the forum that are receptive to your game to repeat those lies and attacks. People you have privately messaged have TOLD me that you have done this. And Dan Druff caught you doing so.

All because of whatever this stupid story telling agenda of yours is about?


It isn't personal with me. At least didn't start out that way until some of you guys make it personal with years of attacks and attempts to discredit. It is just that you gambling claims just aren't real. They aren't the way things work. You say casinos doesn't care about winning players. That is just not true. No pit or table game supervisor is allowing a player to spread $1-50 ($100-$5000) at double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning $60,000. And patting them on the back and telling them "well done". These people would be out of a job the next day. And this type of shit is what you have claimed for 5 years now!

Yes, players can beat blackjack by card counting and other advantage plays. But they have to work at it. And most of that work involves figuring out how to play and still be allowed to play. Winning machine players or APs have eyes on them from surveillance only. And there are a lot of machine players in the casino so a machine AP has to do something that stands out to draw attention. Table game AP's have not only surveillance, but actual people monitoring right there at the game in the form of pit and even dealers, who will inform.

What you are claiming is just NOT the way it works. And the answer you have when real players that know how things work say that is to attack them with completely made up lies and shit.

What the fuck is the matter with you? Is telling this fantasy, THIS important to you?

Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.

For example say you are beating a particular game in a casino and got backed off. Did they identify the method you were exploiting or did you just get sloppy ? If a team of say 10 guys was hitting the same play they would know instantly if the method was discovered or was it one sloppy individual. I’m speaking generally but you should understand what I mean.

[Treeshade]

Mdawg, YOU have an agenda. As part of that agenda you lie about not just me but everyone that publicly states they don't believe you and the great Mdawg adventure tale. There is a list of people at that true passages forum that you started entire threads about making up lies, including axelwolf, myself and other known APs. And you have done so here an at GF as well. If someone, anyone says they don't believe you, or challenges anything you say, you make up lies about them, often preposterous lies.

And then you privately message others on the forum that are receptive to your game to repeat those lies and attacks. People you have privately messaged have TOLD me that you have done this. And Dan Druff caught you doing so.

All because of whatever this stupid story telling agenda of yours is about?


It isn't personal with me. At least didn't start out that way until some of you guys make it personal with years of attacks and attempts to discredit. It is just that you gambling claims just aren't real. They aren't the way things work. You say casinos doesn't care about winning players. That is just not true. No pit or table game supervisor is allowing a player to spread $1-50 ($100-$5000) at double deck blackjack for 10 straight hours winning $60,000. And patting them on the back and telling them "well done". These people would be out of a job the next day. And this type of shit is what you have claimed for 5 years now!

Yes, players can beat blackjack by card counting and other advantage plays. But they have to work at it. And most of that work involves figuring out how to play and still be allowed to play. Winning machine players or APs have eyes on them from surveillance only. And there are a lot of machine players in the casino so a machine AP has to do something that stands out to draw attention. Table game AP's have not only surveillance, but actual people monitoring right there at the game in the form of pit and even dealers, who will inform.

What you are claiming is just NOT the way it works. And the answer you have when real players that know how things work say that is to attack them with completely made up lies and shit.

What the fuck is the matter with you? Is telling this fantasy, THIS important to you?

Machine APs or Table APs can get picked off by surveillance equally depending on the level of threat they are to the casino. They will utilize license plate readers for machine APs as well. It all comes back to understanding how to blend in. Something that a team will be able to do better then one individual if run correctly.

For example say you are beating a particular game in a casino and got backed off. Did they identify the method you were exploiting or did you just get sloppy ? If a team of say 10 guys was hitting the same play they would know instantly if the method was discovered or was it one sloppy individual. I’m speaking generally but you should understand what I mean.

Here’s a real life example. Take that fat little candy bar eating dwarf from NYC Darkoz. You think this idiot could have survived all these years alone? Hell no the fact he uses a team of guys makes up for all his many flaws as a human. A perfect case study of a team being greater then an individual

[mickeycrimm]

Here's a breakdown of the Quick Cash video keno game. You can see a pic of the game below. Anyone is welcome to critique my layman's math:

There are 3 compartments to the game.

1. Main Game
2. Hit 4 Meter
3. Hit 5 Meter

Both meters start at zero.

In the pic I'm playing a 2-spot. There's a reason for that. I have a choice of playing anywhere from 2 numbers to 10 numbers for the same meter. The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers. Plus, it's very easy to capture all of the value with the 2-spot. The cycle in this game is 1551. If you play a 6-spot the odds of 6 out of 6 is 7753. So you won't capture that value on most plays. The 2-spot is the lowest variance.

You can see the bet is 75 cents. And the 2-spot pays $6.25. That's 8.3333 units. The chance of hitting a 2-spot is 16.63158. You can check this on the Wizard Of Odds Keno Calculator. But here's what the math looks like:

C(80,2) = 3160 total 2-spot combinations in an 80 ball tank.

C(20,2) = 190 combinations in which you will hit the 2-spot.

3160/190 = 16.63158

So the main game payack is:
8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

Now for the meters. These are not conventional meters. A percentage of the wager is not going into these meters. For the Hit 4 meter when you catch 3 of the 5 Vault Bonus Picks it puts 1 unit into the Hit 4 meter.

When you catch 4 of the 5 Vault Bonus Picks you are awarded 10 units plus whatever money is in the Hit 4 meter.

The freq. of catching 3 of 5 is 11.93 (you can check these freqs. on Wizard of Odds). The freq. of catching 4 of 5 is 82.7

82.7/11.93 means you will average putting 6.93 units into the Hit 4 meter per 82.7 games. Adding in the extra 10 units means 16.93 units per 82.7 games.

16.93/82.7 = 20.4%

So between the Main Game and the Hit 4 meter the game is up to 70.5%.

Now for the Hit 5 meter. When you catch 3 of 5 it puts 2 units in the Hit 5 Meter.

2/11.93 = 16.7645%.

When you catch 4 of 5 it puts 3 units into the Hit 5 Meter.

3/82.7 = 3.6276%

16.7645% + 3.6276% = 20.39%.

Hit the 5 out of 5, (freq. is 1551 rounded) and you get the money in the Hit 5 meter.

So now we have:

Main Game 50.1%
Hit 4 Meter = 20.4%
Hit 5 Meter = 20.39%

So we have a 90.89% game.

I'll show my strategy next....

The link is to the video of the game:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1743987115283853635

[1Hit1der]

The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers.

How is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?


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[Mission146]

The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers.

How is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?


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You seem to be asking out of genuine curiosity, so I'll give my take:

It's not strictly better, but it reduces variance. For an extreme example of variance, if a game had a 10% house edge and zero variance, then you would just bet $1.00 and lose $0.10 every single play.

Variance is the reason why a gambler can play a negative expectation game, but sometimes, be ahead...often for long periods of time/many trials. For example, someone who hits the Mega Millions Jackpot is extremely unlikely to ever be a lifetime loser at playing the Mega Millions; this despite the fact that they might have bet into a hugely negative expectation.

If you're betting at a positive expectation, then you might be inclined to avoid variance for several reasons. One potential reason to want to minimize variance is limited bankroll; the reason for that is because Variance can result in stronger and longer-lasting swings. I don't believe that is why Crimm mentioned Keno here.

In the case of this Keno game, I think one would want to minimize Variance in order to get the proverbial, 'Long run,' faster, such that the actual return of a play is more likely to closely approximate the expected return, with fewer plays. As Crimm suggested in his post, if hitting six out of six is a relative long shot, but some of your expected return comes from hitting six out of six, then you endure more variance and may make the realization of your advantage take longer.

On the other hand, you could hit the six out of six on the very first play and rapidly exceed your expected value by virtue of doing so.

Either way, in the short-term, people playing a negative expectation game can be do so profitably because of variance. Similar to our slot machine where you can only bet $1.000 and lose $0.10 every time, if Crimm had a 5% edge with zero variance, then the only outcome of betting $1.00 would be a return of $1.05 of which $0.05 would be profit.

[1Hit1der]

I just thought that Crimm must then have a Kelly criterion, or other, calculation, based on the different game-variances, to optimize the grow rate of his bankroll. Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.

Besides that, the distinction between the variances of the wins/losses, and bet sizes, of a game, versus, the variance of the sample size of thus outcomes. I remember that Jacobson pointed out, at WoV, something about variances not changing, strictly speaking, but, I hesitate to get into something like that here.

I have several questions about Crimm's post. We'll see what happens.

On the other hand, armed with a bit more information, I'm trying to clean up the notion of an element-0, in the period table of (chemical) elements. I let off, several years ago, with the notion that it amounts to the atomic components in isolation, in a absolute sense. As opposed to a collection of neutrons. Knowing the exact number of thus elements, specifically the number of rows of, makes it a lot easier to choose one notion over the other, in terms of how the matter, versus antimatter, thus tables "come together". And, to know which has to be cleaned up, or further developed a bit, to fit into what I'm trying to do.


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[kewlJ]

Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.

Complete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.

Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.

There comes a point that every player should dance to his own tune.

[1Hit1der]

Slow and steady growth rate, and, hence, slow and steady increase in the amount bet. It's possible to thus pull ahead by constantly adjusting the amount bet, up, then, down, up, then, down, a lot, a lot, but, it's optimal to constantly do so only up a little bit at a time. (Unless working with stuff with no limit to the upside, such as with the stock market.)

Again, you fail to ask about things, but, instead fly off the handle in weird directions.

[kewlJ]

Again, you fail to ask about things, but, fly off the handle in weird directions.

I flew off the handle in a weird direction? Where?

Slow and steady growth rate, and, hence, slow and steady increase in the amount bet. It's possible to thus pull ahead by constantly adjusting the amount bet, up, then, down, up, then, down, a lot, but, it's optimal to constantly do so only up a little bit at a time.

This is part of the problem. I know this discussion is not about blackjack, but that is what I play so I will use some examples from blackjack. As you just stated, it is impractical to be resizing every round, session, which is what true Kelly calls for.

Additionally the Kelly formula would have a player wager a different amount at every different true count and advantage. So true Kelly would have probably 10 or 12 (at least) different wager amounts. So, optimal BR growth would equal optimal heat. You can't win if you can't play. It is better longevity-wise, to have fewer or minimal amounts of jumps or wager increases which directly conflicts with Kelly.

Now to take it to the other extreme, optimal win rate would have a player bet absolute minimum in -Ev counts or situations and maximum wager at ANY +EV count or situation. That would produce the highest possible win rate, at the expense of extreme variance and additionally would be extreme heat. So you don't want to do that either.

What I do is find a compromise position, for all components, variance, win rate and cover or things that keep play more tolerance.

I used to have some of these discussions with Moses. There are things I do and choose to do that actually invite variance, in the name of win rate and longevity. Variance just is not the big deal everyone thinks, if you are properly funded and mentally prepared for the increased variance and swings. It is an exercise in focusing on long-term rather than short-term, as most players tend to do.

[1Hit1der]

I'm talking about the optimal growth rate of bankroll, and, then, looking for a new acceptable range of different amounts to bet, versus the different chances of winning - overall. Think compound interest.

I don't give a shit about the day-to-day throes of casino blackjack or casino heat, or being able to (unnecessarily) withstand a lot of variance, or, anything else you might throw out there to try to "muddy the waters". Not even you can change the math by (idiotically) "living for it". Ha.

P.S. If some lawyer tells you that he's living the life, lives for the law, then run for hills.

[kewlJ]

I'm talking about the optimal growth rate of bankroll, and, then, looking for a new acceptable range of different amounts to bet, versus the different chances of winning - overall. Think compound interest.

I don't give a shit about the day-to-day throes of casino blackjack or casino heat, or being able to (unnecessarily) withstand a lot of variance, or, anything else you might throw out there to try to "muddy the waters". Not even you can change the math by (idiotically) "living for it". Ha.

I know what you are talking about, Garnabby. I just don't agree with the principal. You can't win if you can't play (heat and countermeasures) and then your optimal growth and compound interest are just something that occurs in theory (on paper) not in reality or actual play.

BTW, I have lived some of the "you can't win if you can't play" over the past few years.

Stanford Wong used to say that you could teach a monkey to count cards, but the trick was to figure out how to be able or welcome to continue to play.

Almost everything you do that makes your play more tolerable toward the goal of longevity, moves away from optimal play and optimal "growth" things like Kelly. These are compromises that have to be made.

[MDawg]

Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.

Complete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.

Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.

Can't get slower or steadier than red to green action.

Of course, as expected, UNKewlJ is trying to change his story now and claim that he bets bigger.

I am the one who has always said to go in and do what you can when you can.

[1Hit1der]

Of course, as expected, UNKewlJ is trying to change his story now and claim that he bets bigger.

I think that he's trying to claim, on the other hand, that he's supposed to still be betting red, to green, chips, without any appreciable growth. That if he starts with a higher base-unit, then he'll be thrown out. But, no, if you make money by counting cards, and the like, they throw you out, anyway. Hard way to make an easy living, except at the forums.


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[mickeycrimm]

The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers.

How is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?

As I said earlier, you have your choice of how many spots you want to play from 2 to 10. They are all on the same meter. So when the game first came out, about 12 years ago, one of the things I had to determine was how many numbers to play.

It turned out that the 2-spot had the highest main game payback which I was very pleased with because it's the lowest variance. The 2-spot was 50.1%, the 3-spot was 49.95%. The 4-spot up thru the 10-spot all came in between 49% and 49.9%.

In this game you are fading a 29.5% drain until you hit the 5 of 5. Since I'm playing only 2 numbers the drain is consistent. I'm capturing all of the value of the main game in the short term instead of medium or long term.

[mickeycrimm]

So I determined that this particular Quick Cash game has a 90.89% overall payback. The game does have other bet levels with their own meters and the numbers are a little different.

I don't play anything at a disadvantage so let's find the breakeven point. The Hit Five Meter runs at 20.39%. BTW, most meters are like 1%, 2%, 4%. There were some bad pay 10's or Better video poker games in Tahoe years ago that had 10% meters. That's the highest I ever seen until I ran into this game.

90.89% is a 9.11% deficit. The frequency (cycle) of hitting 5 of 5 is 1551 rounded. It's a 75 cent bet. So....

1551 X .75 X .0911 = $106

As I stated earlier the Hit Five Meter starts at zero. So it's at breakeven or better when I find $106 or more in the meter. I don't play at breakeven. Not pulling the money out of my pocket is breakeven too.

I drew the line at 10% advantage.

1551 X .75 X .1 = $116. So I needed to find $222 or more in the meter. And when the game first came out I was finding a lot more than 10% advantage:

$338 is 20% advantage
$454 is 30% advantage

You can see in the pic I hung that that play was above 130%.

Finding $300, $400, $500 in the Hit Five meter was routine when the game first came out. Things started slowing down after about 6 months and it became just another game in my repertoire.

On turbo it played at 2400 GPM. The cycle was 1551. So an average 40 minute play.

10% advantage was worth $75 an hour.
20% was worth $150 an hour
30% was worth $225 an hour.

Quick Cash was on multi-game machines for several years. It got to where the game got no action from the rec players at all. They started pulling the game to make room for newer games on the machines. When it started it was on 1500 machines. There might be a dozen left today.