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Thread: Quick Note for Todd

  1. #221
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    I formulated my opinion based on the fact that I have made a lot of money implementing Mickey's numbers on a variety of slot machines.
    It's like I'm reading my biography.

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  2. #222
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    That is a "big deficit" when you are voluntarily giving up 3x + the house edge you need to be giving.

    That is ploppy shit. That is not sharp. Or whatever you want to call it.
    I may be mixed up on details, but I think you have a point that it's a big dropoff from 0.3% (HE) NSUD to 1.1% Ugly Ducks. It sounds like he could have found something else in the middle such as Bonus Poker. He may have prioritized either simplicity (staying with a familiar type of game) or fun.

    Other than that, I don't see a problem. As a visitor primarily betting sports, he needed to secure free hotel, and Boyd was reliable in that crucial aspect. Point value on multiplier days recouped most of the expected loss. Probably the minimum was 7x (0.7%), and senior days had additional benefits such as drawings and food. Plus mail value.

  3. #223
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    That is a "big deficit" when you are voluntarily giving up 3x + the house edge you need to be giving.

    That is ploppy shit. That is not sharp. Or whatever you want to call it.
    I may be mixed up on details, but I think you have a point that it's a big dropoff from 0.3% (HE) NSUD to 1.1% Ugly Ducks. It sounds like he could have found something else in the middle such as Bonus Poker. He may have prioritized either simplicity (staying with a familiar type of game) or fun.

    Other than that, I don't see a problem. As a visitor primarily betting sports, he needed to secure free hotel, and Boyd was reliable in that crucial aspect. Point value on multiplier days recouped most of the expected loss. Probably the minimum was 7x (0.7%), and senior days had additional benefits such as drawings and food. Plus mail value.
    AP's do a cost/benefit analysis of whether to do what redietz did.

    The play cost redietz a lot more than $300 a year. An AP always does a cost/benefit analysis.

    In those days you could buy rooms for $30 a night, even less. A theorietical loss of $300 equates to paying about $10 per night for the room and $5 for the meal. In those days meals were cheap.

    For some reason ditz has a problem with "theoretical." But theoretical is the up front measurement of what you are doing. It's the guide that is used. But redietz also has another problem. He doesn't know how to measure his EV. Evidently, he doesn't know what his time is worth in other spots. AP's don't have that problem.

    Here's how AP's think:

    "60 hours of video poker play per year will cost me $300 and it will get me 24 room nights and a dozen meals. The rooms are worth about $30 a night so that's a cost of about $720 and the meals might be worth $100. So it's about a $520 value when you deduct the $300 cost.

    520/60 = about $9 per hour. So maybe there was some cashback factored in. So maybe it was worth $10 to $15 per hour.

    Meanwhile, in the other casinos, I was worth $50 (about what it was worth to me in those days) an hour working advantage slots. However, comp was very skimpy there. Didn't get jackshit. At 60 hours that's $3000.

    So running that comp at Gold Coast would actually cost me about $2300 in lost revenue. This is how AP's think.

    Another thing about the room offers. For low rollers they pretty much come in 2-day packages per month, the offer expires at the end of the month and another offer is sent out for the next month. So to use all 24 rooms nights one would have to make a trip to Vegas every month. I never seen redietz write about visiting Vegas more than a few times a year for about a week at a time.

    So did redietz use all those room nights? The marketers say only about 20% of their offers get used. The same thing with cashback/freeplay. It's staggered to weekly release.

    Rob Singer used to rail about playing for room and meal comp and calling it a win. I didn't tell him then because we were feuding but I pretty much agreed with him. It's generally a waste of time and money. I would take the $50 an hour and pay for the room.

    I consider room/meal comp to be a by-product. I don't play for it. I play for the hourly rate. But if they send it I'll use it if it's convenient. I'm after the money not the free shit.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 06-04-2024 at 11:43 AM.
    Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.

  4. #224
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    The analysis you posted on Wolf Run Eclipse recently was excellent and clearly shows you know exactly how to use math to make money at casinos. From the knowledge of what metrics to collect on the machine to how to crunch them shows expertise. Your analysis of Must Hit By's, other banked game slots, progressive Keno and some of the specialized VP games at Montana bars are also terrific. You worked out the correct strategy for Draw Til you Win with pencil and paper to make a lot of money on this game. Any poster calling your skill set into question is giving an utterly absurd take on your skills as an advantage player.
    Does anyone here have a Wikipedia page? Other than our administrator.

    I couldn't find anything on you.

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    I'm told I have one, but it's misspelled .
    I formulated my opinion based on the fact that I have made a lot of money implementing Mickey's numbers on a variety of slot machines. If you want to formulate your opinion based on something else, like reasonably assuming that the FPDW strategy was used on Ugly Ducks based on a posted timeline and knowledge of when the FPDW cards were published, who's to stop you.
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    Tableplay I have made money from both information Mickey has posted & information that you have posted.

    Thank you to both of you!

  5. #225
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    senior days had additional benefits such as drawings and food.
    What's the minimum age required to typically qualify for "senior days" benefits?

  6. #226
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    What's the minimum age required to typically qualify for "senior days" benefits?
    Typically, 50. Sometimes 55.

  7. #227
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    That's a running tally of all video poker lifetime, the majority of which occurred at Palms and Boyd. It includes cashback (most of which was accumulated on 10X points and up days at Boyd) but places no value on comps.
    In addition, and more importantly regarding reading comprehension, I didn't say that I lost $300 per year at Boyd. I said that IF I were theoretically playing the WORST game I played anywhere for the full number of hours I played each year, which would be Boyd, then that -$300 annually (not counting cashback, comps, or drawing results) would be the PROJECTED result.
    The worst game you played was 98.9, and your cashback was mostly 1.0 or better.

    I'm not seeing the problem with that.

  8. #228
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    That's a running tally of all video poker lifetime, the majority of which occurred at Palms and Boyd. It includes cashback (most of which was accumulated on 10X points and up days at Boyd) but places no value on comps.
    In addition, and more importantly regarding reading comprehension, I didn't say that I lost $300 per year at Boyd. I said that IF I were theoretically playing the WORST game I played anywhere for the full number of hours I played each year, which would be Boyd, then that -$300 annually (not counting cashback, comps, or drawing results) would be the PROJECTED result.
    The worst game you played was 98.9, and your cashback was mostly 1.0 or better.

    I'm not seeing the problem with that.
    The problem is trading your better expectation elsewhere to do it.
    Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.

  9. #229
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The problem is trading your better expectation elsewhere to do it.
    On that line, what would you recommend now?

    Boyd implemented some adverse changes, dating back to late 2018. VP now requires double coin-in (0.05% base), and tier points are keyed to theo. Initially both Canneries stayed un-consolidated, but then in 2020, Eastside closed permanently, while original Cannery's slot club was folded into the Oh Brother ship.

    Also in 2020, promos were slashed.

    Palms, meanwhile, was assimilated into Stations, but now the California Indians are in control. I've heard decent feedback on comps and promos, but reported best game is only Bonus Poker. The good news there is it's available in multi-line.

  10. #230
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Tableplay I have made money from both information Mickey has posted & information that you have posted.
    Not specifying how much is like the reverse of, "If there's no price on it, then you can't afford it." Ha.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

  11. #231
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Regardless, Redietz made what is easily the best thread of the month.

    This and Kewl coming back from his gambling trip are probably best 2 threads this year. I'm just some bully anti-social goof on here.

    I am not quality like these guys.
    How boring, with only actual gamblers? Gardening would be more interesting. Or, watching paint dry.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

  12. #232
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post

    In addition, and more importantly regarding reading comprehension, I didn't say that I lost $300 per year at Boyd. I said that IF I were theoretically playing the WORST game I played anywhere for the full number of hours I played each year, which would be Boyd, then that -$300 annually (not counting cashback, comps, or drawing results) would be the PROJECTED result.
    The worst game you played was 98.9, and your cashback was mostly 1.0 or better.

    I'm not seeing the problem with that.
    The problem is trading your better expectation elsewhere to do it.
    No, the problem is no one else was offering 12 to 24 comped nights, a dozen comped meals, and various other things such as video poker tournament invites, for that amount of play.

    There was no better (overall, as in reality-based) expectation.

    Reality seems to be hard for some "APs" to grasp. There is a real, practical world out there.

    P.S. Vic and Anthony's was stellar. Heading to see Love in 10 minutes.

  13. #233
    Originally Posted by Garnabby View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Tableplay I have made money from both information Mickey has posted & information that you have posted.
    Not specifying how much is like the reverse of, "If there's no price on it, then you can't afford it." Ha.
    Garnabby, one thing I really like about this website is you get to interact with people who are different.

    You are definitely different lol.

  14. #234
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post



    The worst game you played was 98.9, and your cashback was mostly 1.0 or better.

    I'm not seeing the problem with that.
    The problem is trading your better expectation elsewhere to do it.
    No, the problem is no one else was offering 12 to 24 comped nights, a dozen comped meals, and various other things such as video poker tournament invites, for that amount of play. There was no better (overall, as in reality-based) expectation. Reality seems to be hard for some "APs" to grasp. .
    The reality is the play was worth $10 or $15 an hour. So would I take time off from a $50 an hour play to go do it? No, that's stupid. You are taking a BIG CUT IN PAY.

    There are a myriad of positive plays out there. AP's are always analyzing them to see where their time is best spent. Generally, the hourly rate holds the most concern. What the fuck are you doing on a $15 an hour play when there is a $50 an hour play next door. It's dumb.

    In your case, redietz, maybe you didn't have better expectation elsewhere. I would have thought that pro sports bettors make more than $15 an hour. But maybe not.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 06-04-2024 at 07:21 PM.
    Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.

  15. #235
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post

    Tableplay I have made money from both information Mickey has posted & information that you have posted.

    Thank you to both of you!
    No problem Ben, glad to hear it.

  16. #236
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    In the last little while, crimm has been widely wrong on the numbers at least twice while presenting himself as an expert.
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    On that line, what would you recommend now?

  17. #237
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    In the last little while, crimm has been widely wrong on the numbers at least twice while presenting himself as an expert.
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    On that line, what would you recommend now?
    Thanks, but he'll answer the question when he's ready. You don't have to bump it.

  18. #238
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by Garnabby View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Tableplay I have made money from both information Mickey has posted & information that you have posted.
    Not specifying how much is like the reverse of, "If there's no price on it, then you can't afford it." Ha.
    Garnabby, one thing I really like about this website is you get to interact with people who are different.

    You are definitely different lol.
    I'm a man like any other. Ie, the differences are between us, but, no one is the difference, or even different from another.

    Last edited by Garnabby; 06-04-2024 at 09:04 PM.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

  19. #239
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    What the fuck are you doing on a $15 an hour play when there is a $50 an hour play next door. It's dumb.

    In your case, redietz, maybe you didn't have better expectation elsewhere. I would have thought that pro sports bettors make more than $15 an hour. But maybe not.
    I've never understood why sportsbooks are crowded sometimes, and other times not. I'm like, you should go in Tuesday morning at 3 am. You'll have room to spread out.

  20. #240
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    I'm like, you should go in Tuesday morning at 3 am. You'll have room to spread out.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

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