Note to Dan: Rob Singer and Dan Druff Sharing Account at Gambling Forums

[kewlJ]

That out of the way, Red, EV is an abbreviation for, "Expected Value." Do you rely upon EV when betting sports? Yes, you do. You might not choose to call it that, but you do. You don't have to have a precise probability that you ascribe to an event to believe that you have +EV on that event; the concept of EV is not that strict. Most of us machine guys couldn't even put an EV, to the tenth decimal place or whatever, on a particular play. We just know the expected outcome is more than 100% of the total amount we are betting.

If you have a spread that is -2.5 -110, and you bet that spread, are you betting it because you think the probability of the team winning by three, or more, is precisely 50%?

I think this is spot on Mission. Redietz is old school. I don't think he thinks in terms of EV or probably more accurately calls it EV.

At the end of the movie Casino, after the car bombing, Ace, who was playing Lefty Rosenthal, says something like, "in the end, I went back to picking winners. I could always pick winners". So he doesn't say it, maybe didn't even know it, but whatever it is he was doing to pick his teams was plus EV. He didn't throw a dart at a dart board, whatever methology he was using was +EV. I think redietz is along that same line.

Also, I want to yet again address the redietz tax thing that some of you are harping on. Redietz addressed it at GF addressing Ron. I don't know why he didn't address it here, where even more are harping on it. I am not going to repeat it. That is up to him to do. He has a reason. Sounds a little goofy to me, but if that is how he does it fine.

But you guys harping that a guy currently a month behind on a property tax bill is proof that Redietz isn't who he claims are trolling. You are making shit up that you don't know because you don't like someone, or think he is "condescending". Just stop. It is just dishonest. No other word for it.

And the funny part, a guy, who claims to have earned 300+ k a year from his job, until he quit to play video poker, where he won half a million playing a progression wagering system, 3 million playing the double up bug (a claim he stole), and has hit various other million dollar jackpots, also had a property tax bill that he didn't pay of 11k, that went to court and finally he had to pay, along with evictions, bankruptcy and other legal judgements. THAT people is a pattern of years conflicting with these claims and yet no one says anything. That is just funny to you because it is Ron Singer.

If we are challenging claims, do it with real legitimate concerns, not because you don't like someone. And don't give someone a pass because you think he is funny. That is what I have always done. The few people I have challenged, it isn't because I didn't like them. I didn't know them (especially at the beginning). I challenge claims that defied math and the way things work.