Originally Posted by
redietz
Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.
The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.
So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.
What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.
Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.
Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.
I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.
I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.
Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.
Reply With Quote