You can do the flipping coins thing if your EV is coming from bonus money rather than winning picks. But that is boring. I try to come up with something that is going to be better than 50-50. Don't succeed all that much, but I try.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am currently on a kick of betting college basketball first half unders. Not blindly, nor all games. I look at the defensive efficiency and Pace stats for teams and you can usually find a few games each day. (maybe a dozen on Saturdays), where you think total will be under, particularly that a higher scoring team will be slowed down
Of course there are 2 end of game situations that can screw all that work up. 1) overtime. You pick a game to go under and it is on pace for under the whole game and regulation ends tied. and the game goes over in Overtime. 2). final 2 minutes with all the fouling. If a team is losing by 5-10 points, when they hit 2 minutes they start fouling. Not uncommon to see 15+ points scored in that final 2 minutes with one team hitting a couple 3 pointers while the other makes it's foul shots. Rarely does all that fouling cut into the lead. It just creates a lot of scoring in the final 2 minutes.
But by betting the half time under total you eliminate both these problems. No overtime. None of that fouling in the last two minutes. extra bonus is that in the final 30 seconds there will be exactly 1 possession. Even teams that like to run up and down the floor will hold for 1 shot with under 30 seconds.
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