Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
Wonderful, you finally said it, Arc, even if you didn't mean to and even if you don't believe it. You wrote:

"the math does not care about human decisions. It is simply telling us that random events average out over time."

You see Arc, people do not make random choices when they play video poker, or even when they play in a casino. They choose everything -- when to play, when to stop, what game, what cards, what denomination. Hence the choices of the human being can be used to beat the math.

I know, you'll just say it's either random or fits a bell curve or you'll come up with some coin flip analogy. We've heard it all before.
Alan, if the math I was describing was for some average return then it might be possible to "beat the math". However, that's not what the ER of a game refers to. It refers to the optimal return. You do understand what optimal means, don't you? That means it's the upper limit. You can't do better than the best by making decisions. It is already part of the assumption that all the best decisions have been made.

Here's a task for you. Take 5 one hundred dollar bills, 5 fifty dollar bills, 5 twenty dollar bills, 5 ten dollar bills, 5 five dollar bills and 5 one dollar bills. Now, try counting those bills in any way you can and see if you can get over $930. You can leave out as many bills as you want. You can even quit one day and start up the next if you want. Let me know when you get above $930.

Now, why is it you can't get above $930? Does it have something to do with math? Is it because $930 is the maximum value?