Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
Arc, are you grasping at straws? There are no video poker games with an expected return of 0.5. Would I expect to win? You might also ask if you thought I might expect to live going over Niagara Falls wearing boxer shorts.
OK Alan, what about .7? Would you expect to win using win goals? If not, why not? At what level do you think you can overcome a negative expectation?

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
You also wrote: "What making wrong holds does is change the return from positive to negative." Gee Arc, what are you talking about? The expected return or the actual return? The expected return as you point out is based on optimal holds. So you must be talking about the actual return. Well, Arc, that's what I've been talking about -- the actual return. And the way you play can change the actual return. You might even be able to change a negative expected return to a positive actual return if you do something that "isn't optimal." That would mean "breaking the rules" of play. Doesn't Rob do this in some of his special plays?
No, I'm talking about the future expected return of a strategy that is not optimal. What is advertised as "ER" is somewhat a misnomer. It is the expected return of optimal strategy. No one achieves that. We all have personal expected returns based on the strategy we use which is less than the optimal strategy. Do you not understand what optimal means?

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
I'm tired of discussing this with you. Do stand your ground, even if your feet are firmly planted in quicksand. There is more to playing video poker than just the pay table. Just as there is more to playing live poker than knowing that AA should beat 22. You see Arc, 22 can beat AA -- I saw it happen last night when a third deuce flopped.
That has nothing to do with expectation. The expectation of AA is not to win 100% of the time. That is where you are failing to understand reality.

You're tired of discussing this because at some level you know I am right and you are wrong. You don't want to give up your fantasies. It's really quite simple.