Originally Posted by
redietz
I'm sure there were a few folks for whom the 1918 pandemic was a hoax. More power to them.
Let me know when (1) I get something wrong and (2) you come up with a mortality figure at which you believe people should have behaved differently to have saved lives. If you don't have a figure, well, I salute your sadism.
You do understand that you are arguing that liberals simply want people to die, and that it's a better thing to actively add to the total? Can't argue with that. I always wanted an 18-month span of playing Dexter. I guess many people have that psychotic side to them, including me, but I read enough Spider-Man comics as a kid to believe that with power comes responsibility, so I rein Dexter in whenever I can.
The figure I've seen for number of deaths per day in U.S. is 8700. That's 3 million people a year. Because of the shutdown the Covid19 deaths are offset by lower hwy. fatalities, workplace accidents, and even the regular flu.
Okay, for your getting something wrong. Your original predictions based on the early models was over 10 million cases and 2.2 million deaths. We've been through the worst of it and there are 3 million cases worldwide. So you are about 7 million shy. Of course the number will continue to climb but it looks to fall far short of 10 million.
Your 2.2 million number is off by at least 2.1 million.
Now, you said Montana would be peaking in June or July I can't remember which. We have had 449 cases since March 13. Thats an average of 10 new cases per day. I started keeping daily stats on April 1. Our first case was March 13 and by April 1 we had 204 cases. That was an average of 10.7 new cases per day. From April 1 to April 27 there were 245 new cases. That's an average of 9 new cases per day. But if you look at new cases for the last two weeks, just 50, that's an average of just 3.57 new cases per day. For the past 2 days we have had just 2 new cases. That's an average of 1 per day.
On Worldometers they also track the number of tests given in each state. On April 1 I divided the number of tests by the number of cases it was 1 in 23. Yesterday, April 27, there was 1 new case in 253 tests.
So I think your prediction, redietz, that Montana would peak a month or so after New York is a little off. I think we peaked in late March/early April at 10.7 new cases per day.
The people of Montana are tired of the shutdown. We started opening back up on the 24th of April. On May 4th the bars and restaurants will reopen. Will we see an uptick in the number of new coronavirus cases. Maybe so.
But we will also see an uptick in hwy. fatalities, workplace accidents and cases of the common flu. For some reason those stats are not used for the case to continue the shutdown. Only the coronavirus is used. Whats up with that? We don't shut the country down because of hwy. deaths, workplace accidents, or the common flu.