The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[MDawg]

If I can try to explain what I am doing. I go for the first dip, it almost always jumps from there.

Then from that point on, if it keeps dropping, I put in the next buy at slightly below the last lowest point. If it doesn't drop that low, and keeps going up, I lose out on that upswing (but - my long term shares benefit anyway). But by being conservative with only trying to buy below the last drop, I avoid buying too soon and getting stuck. Yes it has more to do with instinct than straight charts, but this has worked for me for years with very few losing trades.

Also as a general rule I back off as we get closer to the bell. By then the what I call elasticity of the stock if it is dropping has often has lessened, and if it is dropping, it tends to keep dropping.

There are also a number of scenarios in my mind that tend to repeat - based on what happened the day before. Often what happened the day before tends not to repeat again today, as far as whether we close at the highs or lows.

Again, impossible to explain fully, all based on experience, all tried and proven.

[MDawg]

Just clipped the last grand AMZN 2386 to 2387.

That's usually my goal for the day - ten. And then I generally stop.

Although it is tempting to put in another order at 2383....

[Bob21]

If I can try to explain what I am doing. I go for the first dip, it almost always jumps from there.

Then from that point on, if it keeps dropping, I put in the next buy at slightly below the last lowest point. If it doesn't drop that low, and keeps going up, I lose out on that upswing (but - my long term shares benefit anyway). But by being conservative with only trying to buy below the last drop, I avoid buying too soon and getting stuck. Yes it has more to do with instinct than straight charts, but this has worked for me for years with very few losing trades.

Also as a general rule I back off as we get closer to the bell. By then the what I call elasticity of the stock if it is dropping has often has lessened, and if it is dropping, it tends to keep dropping.

There are also a number of scenarios in my mind that tend to repeat - based on what happened the day before. Often what happened the day before tends not to repeat again today, as far as whether we close at the highs or lows.

Again, impossible to explain fully, all based on experience, all tried and proven.

Interesting! Kind of makes sense. I’m thinking of opening up an Ameritrade account with about $20,000 and giving this a whirl again to see how it goes. I’m not looking at making big money, just want to see how it goes.

Ameritrade says I can make a trade for zero dollars, which I don’t understand so we’ll see how that goes. I’ll only be doing a small dollar trades. Last time I tried daytrading was about 15 years ago, and it went well for a while, but then one big losing day would wipe out all my wins. I eventually gave up.

Question: Why do you think your strategy works when there is always someone at the other end of it? Does the other side not spot these trends over time? Obviously with short term daytrading there’s always going to be a winner and a loser. It’s not like investing where everyone can be winner.

What your doing does make sense. Just wondering how you handle it when your stock doesn’t recover and keeps going down. There’s got to be someplace where you cut your losses and buy it back. Thanks!

[MDawg]

Yes, for some time now etrade, Ameritrade (I have accounts with both), have charged zero commission. But you still have to pay SEC fees when you sell. (Was $20.70 now $22.10 for every $1,000,000 in sales proceeds.) It doesn't seem like much...until you are trading 1000 share blocks of a two thousand dollar stock, then it adds up!

<<Just wondering how you handle it when your stock doesn’t recover and keeps going down.>>
Actually exactly what you describe just happened to me. I did one more trade at 2380 and the bottom fell out. The first time, it dropped to 2370, I hesitated...I should have bought another 1000 sh right then and there. But I didn't, and watched it go back up all the way to 2378, and then plummet again. (If I had jumped on the 2370 my average would have become 2375 and I could have gotten out anywhere above 2376 on that first swing back up.)

On the second, drop, I bought another 1000 sh @ 2367, and my average became 2373.5 Then, because I was done with it and not really wanting to hang out, I put in the sell order for all 2000 @ 2374. Although it dropped as low as 2364 or so, I wasn't too worried as I expected an end of day rally. Worst case scenario I would have held the extra shares through earnings this Thursday. It didn't get to that and the 2374 filled easily after a bit.

Of course it is 2381 now...and my original trade would have been 2380 to 2382. It's strange, but almost always my original instincts are right and the price I set BEFORE I start averaging in additional shares is the correct one. But, it's better to be proactive and average in more shares and just accept the new sales point based on the new average sales price. I mean, I entered the trade to make two grand, and I ended up making one thousand, so why look back?

Now, there are occasions, maybe once a year or so, when everything just falls apart completely. Those times I have simply held the trade until it came back, and usually then I will RAISE my sell price. This seems counterintuitive - I mean, after you are DOWN tons of money on a trade, why raise rather than lower your sell price? Well, because if I have to take days, or even weeks for the stock to come back, I am going to make some serious money versus just the original intended couple thousand or so. Plus you have to understand that if you get that far down on a given stock, if it comes back it will keep coming back further. Again a little hard to explain; just based on experience.

You ask about "stop losses." I do have them - for shorts. For example the other day when I was down ten grand on that short, I pulled the trigger and bailed. But, as mentioned, boy was I upset when the stock later dropped such that I could have made good money instead of losing. (And, on the other trade where I lost, over two years ago, was ALSO a short where if I had just held overnight would have made instead of lost.)

So, when it comes to shorts, I will bail out if it starts going too far against me.

But when it comes to longs, I trade stocks that tend to go up over time anyway, and I have never had a problem. I am comfortable with holding a long until it comes back. I get stuck, as I mentioned, rarely, because I am so good at picking entry points, but when it does happen, I just ride it out. However, if it KEEPS dropping one thing I will NOT do is just keep buying more and more shares to average in. After three or four times of buying more shares if it keeps dropping I will just wait and ride it out. So that, in a way, is a loss mechanism. But I've never had to wait more than a few weeks (MAX) for a trade of mine to come back. A few weeks doesn't seem like long, but in the stock market, trading-wise, it can feel like an eternity.

[MDawg]

Yes see there you go, just hit 2382. The original intended 2380 - 2382 trade was sound.

But still - it's hard to sit there and watch a stock drop ten or fifteen points and not take action. It just depends on the situation though. Sometimes averaging in at five points is warranted, and other times it's best to wait and see even after a ten point drop.

[MDawg]

MANY easy trades today. I had AMZN at 2311, NFLX at 404, traded TSLA too. Sold every time too soon, but booked quite a lot.

[MDawg]

I actually forgot that GOOGL reported tonight. Haven't been trading it lately, so I haven't been watching it all that closely.

Still have long term shares - up a hunny! in the AH.

Probably will sell off some tomorrow.

[MDawg]

TSLA REPORTS. It's all over the place, was as low as -35 but it's +15 now. Looking good!

I tried to buy extra sh for AH trading @ 760 didn't quite get that low. Panic sellers almost sold into my bid!

Anyway, it's looking good. We seem to be on track for over a thousand eventually.

[dannyj]

TSLA REPORTS. It's all over the place, was as low as -35 but it's +15 now. Looking good!

I tried to buy extra sh for AH trading @ 760 didn't quite get that low. Panic sellers almost sold into my bid!

Anyway, it's looking good. We seem to be on track for over a thousand eventually.

Congrats on TSLA Dawg.
4 for 4 AH with TSLA, FB, MSFT, & QCOM.
Tomorrow should be great for Nasdaq again.

[MDawg]

You too!

We still have AAPL and AMZN, but AAPL I'm not too worried about been holding that so long anyway, including through the ups and downs. And as well AAPL isn't until May 5th.

[dannyj]

You too!

We still have AAPL and AMZN, but AAPL I'm not too worried about been holding that so long anyway, including through the ups and downs. And as well AAPL isn't until May 5th.

I show AAPL going tomorrow AH along AMZN.
Whatever happens I won’t be selling although technically AMZN is in my wife’s IRA.

[MDawg]

You're right again. What would I do without you?

Not sure why I keep picking up these dates that change.

[dannyj]

You're right again. What would I do without you?

Not sure why I keep picking up these dates that change.

They’re just all estimates until the company itself puts out a PR on actual date.

[MDawg]

BTW gaming wise, Cosmopolitan has sent out an email where if you spend just a few minutes playing a memory tiles sort of game you may get a thousand or two thousand Identity points redeemable after they re-open. It's worth a free Juice Standard drink anyway.

[The Boz]

BTW gaming wise, Cosmopolitan has sent out an email where if you spend just a few minutes playing a memory tiles sort of game you may get a thousand or two thousand Identity points redeemable after they re-open. It's worth a free Juice Standard drink anyway.

I got $50 in Resort Credit. It’s a couple boxes of Hattie B hot chicken strips.

[MDawg]

That's pretty good!

I thought I was doing well getting a couple thousand pts. I got one email only so far.

I also keep getting an email for a similar play for points program from Station Casinos (Palms), but that is under an old player card of mine that should have been deactivated.

I am not getting any play online for points offers under my own, current Station player card. Maybe because I never play slots?

I recall getting or seeing something from another casino too, but it seemed like too many hoops for that one, so I didn't do it.

All Wynn keeps sending are videos of their chefs cooking at home, artists (dancers) exercising at home, and their interior decorator showing off Wynn artwork within the resort.

[The Boz]

That's pretty good!

I thought I was doing well getting a couple thousand pts. I got one email only so far.

I also keep getting an email for a similar play for points program from Station Casinos (Palms), but that is under an old player card of mine that should have been deactivated.

I am not getting any play online for points offers under my own, current Station player card. Maybe because I never play slots?

I recall getting or seeing something from another casino too, but it seemed like too many hoops for that one, so I didn't do it.

All Wynn keeps sending are videos of their chefs cooking at home, artists (dancers) exercising at home, and their interior decorator showing off Wynn artwork within the resort.

It was not that hard if you have a little ability in remembering pictures. I think the highest awards probably required luck in picking matches right from the start.

[MDawg]

BTW if anyone is interested in trading I'd encourage keeping an eye on NFLX. All this week, each day, it has gone from negative to either green or very green. It's not a super expensive stock like AMZN or GOOGL so you may pick up enough shares to make it worth trading without having to put a ton in. The strategy is to buy on the dip obviously, but each time it has gone red (or very red) it has come back to green.

This tells me that people aren't ready to let go of it, and NFLX is due for a big pop again, probably at least to the 450s. But even if that takes a while, still there's a pretty reliable and predictable red to green run each day on NFLX right now.

[MDawg]

Okay well that was a lot of work, but at least it worked out.

TSLA started dropping, which was highly annoying after seeing it pop 80 pts last night so I started to take action to try to cover at least some of the loss (loss in my long term shares).

I traded 2500 sh blocks, which was pretty risky, on each leg down. 2 pts per.
792 to 794
784 to 786
775 to 777

On the last one especially it started looking a little iffy as it dropped to almost 765, so I put in an order to buy another 2500 at 763 which would have been not so far off from the max I would be willing to put into a single trade (of this particular stock TSLA) in one day, but it wasn't necessary and it rebounded. So that's fifteen grand right there but it doesn't make up for the day's drop in my long term TSLA shares, at least not at this moment.

However, the way I look at trading is like - money in the bank - that wouldn't be earned otherwise. And then someday when the long terms are way up there again, you have that additional money you earned and it really adds up.

[MDawg]

I also did a trade of extra sh of AMZN from 2416 to 2426. This was a take it or leave it trade that if it didn't get to 2426 I would have held into after the bell.

After I bought at 2416 it went as low as 2396 or so I think. I held the sell order at 2426.

So going into earnings after hours, unless AMZN dips again, I think I will ride into it with only my long term shares.

But the way these things work - if AMZN makes it after hours, then it doesn't matter WHAT price you buy at today, you will make bank. And if it doesn't make it after hours, no purchase price from before the bell will save you. It will go up or down (and maybe both), a LOT after the bell.