Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
Redietz,

That's basically what we had happen in the WoV Picks game, which is five picks per week (based on Thursday lines) with an optional, "Confidence Pick," that can count as two wins or two losses:

The winner, JohnZimbo, finished with a record of 71-36 to second place RidetheEdge at 67-34. In addition to the potential for pushes, RidetheEdge took his optional Skip Week and JohnZimbo did not, hence the difference in games picked.

Personally, I went 54-47 this year, so average year for me...but basically respectable. It's a bit simplified, but if we look at it as:

(5400 * 100/110) - 4700 = 209.090909091

Which is to say that my Picks would have been profitable had I been betting them...but nothing outstanding, obviously. I also went 5-1 Week 18, which is the better part of my record to the good.

2019 Record: 47-39

2012-2017 Record: 258-226

2018: I basically was just making Default Picks that year because I knew a few players' Picks in advance of them making them, so I just played a Default Strategy. There was also a side prize that required me to look at other peoples' picks before making my own, which is obviously something I wouldn't normally do.

2020: There was no game.

Thus:

258-226
47-39
54-47

LIFETIME: 359-312

(35900 * 100/110) - 31200 = 1436.36363636

I don't know how many pushes I had, but I'm going to call 0.53502235469 a nice little winning percentage when you consider that it's over the course of 671 decisions. I'm not going to go as far as to say that it's strong, but I'm satisfied that it is a better than average lifetime win rate...and all of the Picks are posted (with record) in advance of the games kicking off.
Mission, that is solid as a rock. Nothing wrong with that. As I say often, there are people who, lifetime, win between 54 and 55% in the NFL, but nobody over the long-term really cracks 55%. That's why this season is such an anomaly and should be analyzed and discussed for a while.

Personally, I'm right at your number for sides over that time, but with far fewer plays, so what you've done is more impressive. Now counting totals (I do more totals than sides), I'm a bit ahead of you, but not a lot.

More later.