Originally Posted by
redietz
Originally Posted by
Mission146
Redietz,
That's basically what we had happen in the WoV Picks game, which is five picks per week (based on Thursday lines) with an optional, "Confidence Pick," that can count as two wins or two losses:
The winner, JohnZimbo, finished with a record of 71-36 to second place RidetheEdge at 67-34. In addition to the potential for pushes, RidetheEdge took his optional Skip Week and JohnZimbo did not, hence the difference in games picked.
Personally, I went 54-47 this year, so average year for me...but basically respectable. It's a bit simplified, but if we look at it as:
(5400 * 100/110) - 4700 = 209.090909091
Which is to say that my Picks would have been profitable had I been betting them...but nothing outstanding, obviously. I also went 5-1 Week 18, which is the better part of my record to the good.
2019 Record: 47-39
2012-2017 Record: 258-226
2018: I basically was just making Default Picks that year because I knew a few players' Picks in advance of them making them, so I just played a Default Strategy. There was also a side prize that required me to look at other peoples' picks before making my own, which is obviously something I wouldn't normally do.
2020: There was no game.
Thus:
258-226
47-39
54-47
LIFETIME: 359-312
(35900 * 100/110) - 31200 = 1436.36363636
I don't know how many pushes I had, but I'm going to call 0.53502235469 a nice little winning percentage when you consider that it's over the course of 671 decisions. I'm not going to go as far as to say that it's strong, but I'm satisfied that it is a better than average lifetime win rate...and all of the Picks are posted (with record) in advance of the games kicking off.
Mission, that is solid as a rock. Nothing wrong with that. As I say often, there are people who, lifetime, win between 54 and 55% in the NFL, but nobody over the long-term really cracks 55%. That's why this season is such an anomaly and should be analyzed and discussed for a while.
Personally, I'm right at your number for sides over that time, but with far fewer plays, so what you've done is more impressive. Now counting totals (I do more totals than sides), I'm a bit ahead of you, but not a lot.
More later.
Thank you very much; I genuinely appreciate you saying that.
The funny thing is that you would think it would cause me to be more inclined to get actual money down, but it actually makes me less inclined. If you flip just eight results and make me 351-320:
(35100 * 100/110) - 32000 = -90.9090909091
I would be losing if playing the same amount on every game. With that, I'm 47 games over .500 and would still be 31 games over .500, but monetarily, I would be losing.
Beyond that, the numbers in my other post would have me roughly $1436.36 ahead if betting $100 per game over 671 games. Not counting pushes (mostly because I have no idea how many games I pushed) that would be 1436.36/67100 = 0.02140625931 which is to say profits of 2.141% of all monies bet...which really isn't very good at all in that amount of time and compared to the risk level. Granted, betting $1,000/game and picking the way that I have might be, "Worth it," from a financial standpoint, but obviously my financial standing in life (i.e. bankroll) and 2.141% perceived advantage makes it not worth the risk.
I'm also not even that sure my picking is
that good, even though it's good. Here are some arguments for me and against me:
AGAINST:
1.) Stale Lines.
-My picks are always being made based on Thursday's lines, but are often made at some point after Thursday.
2.) Win Rate.
I'm basically calling heads every time and heads has come 359 out of 671 attempts, which means a blindfolded monkey picks as well, or better, than me about 3.7843% of the time just randomly in 671 decisions. In other words, I have picked well and have been remarkably consistent over several years (I never deviate too far from my average), but my performance is not 3SD+, or anything, which means it could still just be an effect of variance.
ARGUMENTS IN MY FAVOR:
1.) Stale Lines Caveat
-I could be playing line moves or news, but if you'd believe me, I'm not and almost never do. You could probably look at closing lines v. lines I've picked and I would imagine that you would find no bias towards line movement in my picks whatsoever, overall.
2.) I Don't Even Really Try
-I just observe the games, look at the stats, have a fundamental understanding of how football works and mostly just pick based on what I think is going to happen from my observations.
-I spend an average of five minutes deciding my five picks for the week. The only time I really do anything is I have a little formula based on Points Differentials that I sometimes do if I can't get to five games just on what I, "Like."
3.) I MUST pick five games per week:
-This is the biggest argument in my defense. Quite frankly, if my record is what it is ONLY picking the games that I like absolutely the best, then I'd be a little bit embarrassed!
OVERALL:
Overall, I really appreciate what you said, but I'm not so impressed with myself that I would ever get money down unless ALSO taking advantage of a promotion that swings the expectation WAY in my favor (or, better still, makes it impossible NOT to profit) because I think I'm just pretty good at making Picks...and the math says it could still just be, "Luck," as roughly 1 in 26 do as well (or better) blindly.
Reply With Quote