The Mdawg "challenge"

[redietz]

Any semi sharp player can see how full of shit he is. People who aren't sharp believe all kinds of retarded shit when it comes to gambling, so who cares whether or not they believe him. WOZ is a forum for people who aren't sharp.

Let cunts be cunts.

The thing that first struck me when I went on forums after a lifetime of operating solo was how gambling-clueless people were, even people who were allegedly expert at something. I was shocked, because I was actually learning stuff about comps and player systems and best times to eat where, but I learned just about nothing about gambling in general and absolutely nothing about what I do best. It was stunning to realize all these know-somethings knew nothing. And all of these folks thought they were jacks of all gambling trades. It's ridiculous.

When I ran into WoV promoting the use of a "parlay analyzer," that pretty much was the fat lady singing for me regarding "forum expertise."

I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).

[AxelWolf]

The thing that first struck me when I went on forums after a lifetime of operating solo was how gambling-clueless people were, even people who were allegedly expert at something. I was shocked, because I was actually learning stuff about comps and player systems and best times to eat where, but I learned just about nothing about gambling in general and absolutely nothing about what I do best. It was stunning to realize all these know-somethings knew nothing. And all of these folks thought they were jacks of all gambling trades. It's ridiculous.

When I ran into WoV promoting the use of a "parlay analyzer," that pretty much was the fat lady singing for me regarding "forum expertise."

I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).

Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

[smurgerburger]

I can't for the life of me figure out why you are so stuck on debunking parlays. They are a legit way to gain an advantage in situations where you normally couldn't. There are situations where parlays can achieve a much higher % and earn than straight betting, even if you were a good handicapper.

A parlay analyzer is no different from a VP, keno BJ, craps, or roulette analyzer, they are tools that help one determine percentages.

Anyways, who are these know-somethings who knew nothing and who is claiming to be an expert at what? Are you an expert at sports betting?

I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).

Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

[redietz]

I'm an expert at college football betting. There are no "sports betting experts" just like there are no doctors who do brain surgery on Monday and deliver children on Saturday and treat bunions on Sunday.

Regarding parlays, you have got to be kidding me. Outside of the occasional promo where parlay odds are pumped up beyond what they should be,
parlay betting off the board is usually idiotic. Now I am talking off the board, not off frozen lines on parlay cards. And I am talking parlays that do not have OPEN components. Parlay CARDS and OPEN parlays are betable. But in neither case does one need a parlay calculator.

If I have to explain why off the board parlays are generally idiotic, you're beyond salvation, but I'll do it anyway.

Lines move. I know. Huge inside info. Lines vary from book to book and from minute to minute. Lines especially move massively in the two sports that have historically proven most beatable -- college football and college hoops. Some would argue that these are the ONLY beatable sports.

If you are betting parlays off the board at one place and time, you are not getting the optimal numbers for the games involved 99% of the time. That use of non-optimal numbers has a cost, and that cost is not figured into any formula employed by a "parlay calculator." I submit that the cost of employing non-optimal numbers exceeds any angle advantages people think they have by employing parlays.

And not just that. Betting parlays off the board at one place at one time teaches two fundamental bad habits -- impulsivity (I must bet it now) and laziness (why check numbers 24/7 week-long at every location when I can just bet a parlay using my parlay calculator?).

Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

[AxelWolf]

Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

Let me ask you this... Are you retired, lost your touch, and dont really bet much anymore? Perhaps you are not really into making money for your guys or yourself?

[smurgerburger]

Was there anyone we know who was suggesting people should make parlays off the boar in the casinos? If you are playing online, as far as I know, it's all off the board. It's the opposite of rare to have a +EV situation using bonuses where using parlays off the board is your best option.

I agree that making random parlays off the board is much worst than simply line shopping and or betting the games individually. So we are in agreement with that.

In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

The bolded nicely sums it up.

Real sports betting is handicapping, everything else is mere gimmickry.

[accountinquestion]

I'm pretty sure 100% of my sports bets in the past 5 years have been parlays. Not a lot but 20k at least in wagers. Parlays are sometimes needed because of properties they have or promotions they fit inside.

Someone gave me a book where parlays on nickel or dime lines has 0 juice. I don't know anything about sports but I can beat 0 juice.

I'm fairly certain all these bets were positive expectations or expected to be by a quite rational and mathematical based approach.

Sports betting isn't my thing though.

Actually nah there were 1-2 straight wagers for my college football team for fun.

[AxelWolf]

In redietz' mind everything that's not handicapping is irrelevant.

Or considerably less relevant, would be more accurate. I haven't even availed myself of any of the bonus opportunities thus far. I'll wait until they come to me with offers I consider optimal. I mean, really, why do you think your best use-of-bonus option might be parlays off the board?

I have no problem with people relying on gimmickry to win money betting sports. My hope is that they don't dabble when the gimmickry ends, because that is the goal of the gimmickry being offered. If Stu Ungar lost his ass betting sports, if Phil Mickelson lost his ass betting sports, both being sucked into it, I guess the run-of-the-mill AP has nothing to worry about, eh? Everybody is psychologically bulletproof in AP-land or so the story goes.

The bolded nicely sums it up.

Real sports betting is handicapping, everything else is mere gimmickry.

Yeah, who the fuck wants a mathematical 25%+ edge when they can scamdicapp a theoretical few percent.