The Mdawg "challenge"

[PositiveVariance]

Redietz avoided answering this question I put to him specifically. So I will ask it of everyone. Here's the scenario.

It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets made in the same book. And they offered you a 2 point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2 point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

Would you take the bet?

And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9.

Remember you have to bet every game every week for the entire year.

can you choose if you want +2 or -2 when betting or does it have to be one or the other?

Either way, it certainly seems as if that would be a good deal. I think I would have to say yes to that offer if there was no time to get the math or data, but somehow I get the feeling the data is going to show that it's not +EV.

I agree, I would initially take the wagers without doing research, but As you say I think it will somehow be -EV. However the same situation but with NBA, I believe would be +EV, even though 2 points in an NBA game as a percentage is “worth less” since NBA scores are much higher than NFL scores, so they have a lower value. Not a huge sports better but I believe .5 point would cost -010 (10 cents per dollar). It would seem a half point would bring you even after considering the juice. Without over analyzing it, seems to be a 1.5 point advantage per game. But I’m sure There is more to the situation, possibly something to do with it being the closing line. Mickey, I’m curious what the answer is since this would seem like an obvious +EV situation.