Progressive Free Games AKA the 15's

[PositiveVariance]

Hustlers put it back in -EV and mostly hit the games as soon as they approach positive. That doesn't prevent the locals from playing on the machine or anything like that. Nor do I think the casino would really see it in this light.

Yes it does prevent the locals from playing the machines. The reason is because when a machine is stripped clean, it is lower than its overall/average RTP (the overall RTP is the average of all states of the machine - vulturable,neutral, and unvulturable). For example an overall 87% machine in its stripped down state might have an RTP of 70%. Then the locals get creamed (even worse than at 87%) and it doesn't get played as often by them. Next thing you know, idle hexbreakers, idle Regal Ritches, etc.

They are called ploppies for a reason. They “PLOP” down at their favorite machine.

Very few ploppies understand -EV, neutral, +EV states of the machines. They just know overall the casino will take their money. They hope to get “lucky” from time to time. They go to the machine either because they are passing by and the machine is free or it is a machine they enjoying playing and will seek it out.

Let’s say it is in a heavily -EV state of 70% RTP and the ploppy gets creamed. The machine takes their $200 and with typically ploppy thinking, they say “well it’s just not My Day”. The following Week they come back and play that same machine and win $200. This time it is “Their day” as they would put it.

If Ploppies understood the various states of “variable state machines”, they likely wouldn’t be in there gambling all this -EV stuff since they would realize just how bad it is for them.

On the argument for AP’s taking the machines when they are in an +EV state (assuming the AP isn’t causing problems in the casino) would be that it is OVERALL lowing the RTP for the poppies. It could lower their actual return from 87% to 83%. Some would argue “well the casino pays out the same amount either way”, yes this is true but the casino wants to pay the regular ploppy customers not AP’s.

Blackjack counters will know this is similar to when a casino shuffles up when a card counter increases his bet in a high count. That “high count” is apart of the overall house edge in the game. By shuffling in advantageous situations, the house edge is therefore increased.