Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Other than:

1) Being monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- the toughest consumer publication in the history of handicapping -- for more than a decade.
2) Two plays a week every football season for 30 years in The Wise Guys Contest, with one of the top two records over that span.
3) Being monitored by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, and The Sports Monitor.
4) Being the featured Op Ed writer to oppose President Graham Spanier of Penn State when he tried to ban college football betting.
5) Giving an actual gambling paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking.
6) Having "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians" published.
7) Being the only handicapper to post back-to-back college profit titles in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and three out of five years.
8) Vetted by Rick Hall (born again Christian trying to clean up the tout business in the 80's) and featured in Who's Who in Sports Gambling.
9) Featured every week in Marc Lawrence's PlayBook newsletter, available nationally on newsstands for more than a decade.
10) Winner of Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl.
11) Documented winner of 17 consecutive ATS games enroute to a 66-34 ATS mark.
12) Lately, picking up first place in TopBet's 2023 NFL Picks Contest, finishing first out of 1328 entrants.
13) And various and sundry found in the old web site: http://web.archive.org/web/200304231...itysports.com/


Other than these and a few more, I got nothin'.
Agian, I was just messing with you. I haven't a clue if you're the best at what you do or the worst. I think you know what you're doing and better than most of us. I don't take issue with that. I take issue with your... You must be a stellar specialized handicapper to make consistent long-term money via sports betting. THAT'S COMPLETE BULLSHIT!!! I know someone using a simple formula that's been doing it for years. I believe they are making around 3% but have to ask. I know others who are doing similar non-handicapping stuff and making good money.

I don't know how to and assess the contests in order to quantify one's skill, there are too many unknowns. For instance, I have taken either first or second in all the NFL contests I have participated in, but It's only been 3. Total earnings from the contests are about 20k. There were well over 5k entries (could've been 10k+ in two of the contests.) My win percentage in entered contests is significantly better than yours but I think we can both agree that's meaningless.


When you dedicate your career to something like this while entering 100's(?) of contests and entries, one is bound to win a few.
Look at what Dan did in the NFL. Does that mean Dan is an NFL guru or was it just an extremely good run? IDK

Let's talk about Top bet. How many weekly prizes did you win, and how many entries did you have? IIRC that's a free contest, but also a cheap $5 or $10 unlimited entry deal.

Anyone can look at the site and see it for themselves. Everyone has three entries in the free contest. I won. I put eight in the paid bracket and finished second, tied for third, and tied for fifth. Picked up two or three weekly prizes, but it was all just pocket change. Had I known how few entries would be in the paid side (117), I would not have bothered. I didn't mention it because cashing was no big deal. I also didn't mention winning money in the TopBet Last Man Standing contests because it was no big deal. I cashed in both second-half-season contests by making it to the end. Didn't bother to mention it. I did not cash in the free season-long Last Man Standing at TopBet. I hate LMS contests, but I'll enter them.

Now winning out of 1328 entries -- that is a big deal. A test of skill.

I enter two primary free contests each season and have reported on them for a decade here. Heritage Sports and NorthBet. I finished 100-something in Heritage out of a couple thousand last season and tied for eighth in NorthBet (out of 500+) because I took whack job teams the last week in an attempt to win. TopBet was just the last couple years. So that is not "hundreds of contests."

Dan was an "NFL guru" this season. He was plugged in and in the zone. But it has to be put in the context of how he did in other sports, too, for a totality of effectiveness. McCusker used to argue that comparing different sports was apples and oranges. I did an ad one year demonstrating my record in football-only to the complete cross-sport records of other handicappers. I always counter-argued that you have to put someone in an overall context.

Are there any real long-term NFL gurus? I think not really. But there are gurus for college sports who know what they are doing in a comprehensive and savvy fashion.

I am not, by the way, the premiere contest player in this household. My better half, in fact, won a house in the Palace Station contest.

The old AP line, "I know someone" who wins at sports long term is the same as saying, "I know someone who wins at the lottery." It's forum tripe. I mean, how many APs do you know? And one wins? Good for him/her.

Picking one of out how many. Anecdotal. An unverifiable fable.

And, by the way, as a little dig. Counting open teasers as "half wins," and counting a middle shot that won the ML side, lost half a bet on the dog with points and pushed half a bet on the dog with points, I'm 10 units won, a half unit lost in the XFL. LOL. Without counting that profitable middle shot, I'm 9-0 units won in actual wagers.

The XFL, after all, is more or less college football.