Professional Sportsbetting

[accountinquestion]

I have a friend who taught college probability. If I need actual cipherin' (as Jed Clampett says), I ask him.

His name isn't Billy Walters by any chance was it?

[redietz]

I have a friend who taught college probability. If I need actual cipherin' (as Jed Clampett says), I ask him.

His name isn't Billy Walters by any chance was it?

No, actually it's this guy:

https://www.researchgate.net/scienti...-Beck-58716369

But thanks for asking.

[jbjb]

I am not going to get into the EV nonsense of this and the Regnis thread, and by no means am I going to try to speak for Redietz. I have been involved in sports betting and horse racing for over 50 years. When I was seriously involved with sports betting (I gave it up when they legalized betting horses nationwide), we had contacts at almost every team (not the small schools) that would update us on injuries, problems, etc. Certainly, this gave us some degree of advantage. But it was only one part of handicapping. Like Redietz, I would never disclose, even now, what other factors we used. I am sure that there are modern algorithms and computer applications that can have success. But in my opinion, and I think what Redietz is saying, is that nothing can replace 50 years of study, knowledge, and experience.
Similarly, in horse racing, I know definitely there are computer programs and algorithms that are successful. However, again, I have over 50 years of experience that cannot be replaced. I have studied breeding for 40 years; I try to either watch every race looking for "troubled trips" or at least review the charts of every race. Yes--it takes quite a bit of time and effort yet I love every minute of it. I know trainer tendencies. Again, I would never disclose exactly how I handicap a race. In the old days, when I could only bet local races, I befriended the head of track maintenance and would call him every morning to see what he had done to the track that morning. Was it rolled or harrowed. What was the depth. How deep was the turf course and had it been watered. You can't replace that kind of info at a cost of a bottle of good scotch. Is that EV? Probably, but I am not a believer in EV.
Like Redietz has stated, it still all comes down to my opinion, whether right or wrong. But in my mind, that opinion is based upon more knowledge than the average bettor, and that is my advantage.

You believe in dice influencing. You have ZERO credibility.

[regnis]

And jb—crap like yours is why I don’t bother posting here anymore. Was there any mention of dice in here anywhere?
Ask redietz what I did at kentucky downs 2 years ago for credibility.

But thanks for reminding me not to waste my time here anymore.

[redietz]

And jb—crap like yours is why I don’t bother posting here anymore. Was there any mention of dice in here anywhere?
Ask redietz what I did at kentucky downs 2 years ago for credibility.

But thanks for reminding me not to waste my time here anymore.

Yeah, time to step away.

The expansion of "APs" into sports betting is a lot like going to academic conferences. I go hear Person A speak at Seminar 1. I'm impressed. I go hear Speaker B at Seminar 2. I'm really impressed. Of course, I know very little about what's being discussed in Seminar 1 or 2. Then I go to my area of expertise, Seminar 3, and Person A and Person B show up, and after they open their mouths, I realize they really have very little clue about anything in Seminar 3.

Then the light bulb goes on over my head. The only reason I thought they were expert in Seminars 1 and 2 was because I didn't know anything. As soon as they step into my expertise, the emperors have no clothes. So maybe they really don't know anything about Seminars 1 and 2, either. I have no way of telling.

When I first started looking at forums, I was horrified at the general ignorance. Now that I hear about "soft numbers" and people singing the praises of sports betting seminar hosts, I'm even more horrified. It's just dross.

What regnis did at Kentucky Downs two years ago was off the charts incredible. It was high end, potentially life-changing gambling that nobody on this forum has any experience with except for Dan Druff picking up his first bracelet check.

Credibility comes down to what you have done and what you can do. Not what you type.

[Treeshade]

And jb—crap like yours is why I don’t bother posting here anymore. Was there any mention of dice in here anywhere?
Ask redietz what I did at kentucky downs 2 years ago for credibility.

But thanks for reminding me not to waste my time here anymore.

Yeah, time to step away.

The expansion of "APs" into sports betting is a lot like going to academic conferences. I go hear Person A speak at Seminar 1. I'm impressed. I go hear Speaker B at Seminar 2. I'm really impressed. Of course, I know very little about what's being discussed in Seminar 1 or 2. Then I go to my area of expertise, Seminar 3, and Person A and Person B show up, and after they open their mouths, I realize they really have very little clue about anything in Seminar 3.



Then the light bulb goes on over my head. The only reason I thought they were expert in Seminars 1 and 2 was because I didn't know anything. As soon as they step into my expertise, the emperors have no clothes. So maybe they really don't know anything about Seminars 1 and 2, either. I have no way of telling.

When I first started looking at forums, I was horrified at the general ignorance. Now that I hear about "soft numbers" and people singing the praises of sports betting seminar hosts, I'm even more horrified. It's just dross.

What regnis did at Kentucky Downs two years ago was off the charts incredible. It was high end, potentially life-changing gambling that nobody on this forum has any experience with except for Dan Druff picking up his first bracelet check.

Credibility comes down to what you have done and what you can do. Not what you type.

Credible to me is 10 million plus liquid. If you don’t got it then stfu about being an expert

[monet]

Credibility comes down to what you have done and what you can do. Not what you type.

I spent more Money on Spilt Liquor, than you made last year!

[mickeycrimm]

Hey Mickey, just curious: you're such a road runner, the miles must have piled up on the car you just sold to your buddy.

How many miles did you put on it before letting it go?

Can't remember exactly. I bought it at 90K and it had around 200K when I sold it. Had it for 26 months. This year the travel won't be so heavy. I'm starting to slow down on it. I'll be hitting the big seven zero next month.

[mickeycrimm]

What regnis said.

You know, last week I launched on a Seattle XFL ML at -124 because I knew it would move. Today I launched on Houston -7 1/2 (buying it to -7) for roughly 2K because I thought it much more likely that it would go up rather than down. I also opened teasers on the game for additional money.

Telling us you knew the line was going to move doesn't tell anyone anything. Telling us WHY you knew the line was going to move would be telling everyone something. All you like to do is pound your chest telling everyone how good you are and how they don't know jackshit. Put up some meat and potatoes or STFU.

[AxelWolf]

Other than:

1) Being monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- the toughest consumer publication in the history of handicapping -- for more than a decade.
2) Two plays a week every football season for 30 years in The Wise Guys Contest, with one of the top two records over that span.
3) Being monitored by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, and The Sports Monitor.
4) Being the featured Op Ed writer to oppose President Graham Spanier of Penn State when he tried to ban college football betting.
5) Giving an actual gambling paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking.
6) Having "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians" published.
7) Being the only handicapper to post back-to-back college profit titles in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and three out of five years.
8) Vetted by Rick Hall (born again Christian trying to clean up the tout business in the 80's) and featured in Who's Who in Sports Gambling.
9) Featured every week in Marc Lawrence's PlayBook newsletter, available nationally on newsstands for more than a decade.
10) Winner of Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl.
11) Documented winner of 17 consecutive ATS games enroute to a 66-34 ATS mark.
12) Lately, picking up first place in TopBet's 2023 NFL Picks Contest, finishing first out of 1328 entrants.
13) And various and sundry found in the old web site: http://web.archive.org/web/200304231...itysports.com/


Other than these and a few more, I got nothin'.

Agian, I was just messing with you. I haven't a clue if you're the best at what you do or the worst. I think you know what you're doing and better than most of us. I don't take issue with that. I take issue with your... You must be a stellar specialized handicapper to make consistent long-term money via sports betting. THAT'S COMPLETE BULLSHIT!!! I know someone using a simple formula that's been doing it for years. I believe they are making around 3% but have to ask. I know others who are doing similar non-handicapping stuff and making good money.

I don't know how to and assess the contests in order to quantify one's skill, there are too many unknowns. For instance, I have taken either first or second in all the NFL contests I have participated in, but It's only been 3. Total earnings from the contests are about 20k. There were well over 5k entries (could've been 10k+ in two of the contests.) My win percentage in entered contests is significantly better than yours but I think we can both agree that's meaningless.


When you dedicate your career to something like this while entering 100's(?) of contests and entries, one is bound to win a few.
Look at what Dan did in the NFL. Does that mean Dan is an NFL guru or was it just an extremely good run? IDK

Let's talk about Top bet. How many weekly prizes did you win, and how many entries did you have? IIRC that's a free contest, but also a cheap $5 or $10 unlimited entry deal.

Anyone can look at the site and see it for themselves. Everyone has three entries in the free contest. I won. I put eight in the paid bracket and finished second, tied for third, and tied for fifth. Picked up two or three weekly prizes, but it was all just pocket change. Had I known how few entries would be in the paid side (117), I would not have bothered. I didn't mention it because cashing was no big deal. I also didn't mention winning money in the TopBet Last Man Standing contests because it was no big deal. I cashed in both second-half-season contests by making it to the end. Didn't bother to mention it. I did not cash in the free season-long Last Man Standing at TopBet. I hate LMS contests, but I'll enter them.

Now winning out of 1328 entries -- that is a big deal. A test of skill.

I enter two primary free contests each season and have reported on them for a decade here. Heritage Sports and NorthBet. I finished 100-something in Heritage out of a couple thousand last season and tied for eighth in NorthBet (out of 500+) because I took whack job teams the last week in an attempt to win. TopBet was just the last couple years. So that is not "hundreds of contests."

Dan was an "NFL guru" this season. He was plugged in and in the zone. But it has to be put in the context of how he did in other sports, too, for a totality of effectiveness. McCusker used to argue that comparing different sports was apples and oranges. I did an ad one year demonstrating my record in football-only to the complete cross-sport records of other handicappers. I always counter-argued that you have to put someone in an overall context.

Are there any real long-term NFL gurus? I think not really. But there are gurus for college sports who know what they are doing in a comprehensive and savvy fashion.

I am not, by the way, the premiere contest player in this household. My better half, in fact, won a house in the Palace Station contest.

The old AP line, "I know someone" who wins at sports long term is the same as saying, "I know someone who wins at the lottery." It's forum tripe. I mean, how many APs do you know? And one wins? Good for him/her.

Picking one of out how many. Anecdotal. An unverifiable fable.

And, by the way, as a little dig. Counting open teasers as "half wins," and counting a middle shot that won the ML side, lost half a bet on the dog with points and pushed half a bet on the dog with points, I'm 10 units won, a half unit lost in the XFL. LOL. Without counting that profitable middle shot, I'm 9-0 units won in act ual wagers.

The XFL, after all, is more or less college football.

Thanks for the post, It was refreshing I didn't have to hear about you-know-who and you-know-what.

I know a few guys that also won houses in the Station Football Contests.

It's not an anecdotal unverifiable fable to me, I'm only talking about Advantage Players I know personally and have or do business with, I'm not just talking about people I know in passing who are claiming something. I know them well and I know it's legit unless they were/are lying and just wanted to give me money for free.

Let's talk about XFL(He hate me). I remember going to the first XFL game in Vegas. I thought it was going to be a fun and entertaining gig with betting opportunities. I think they misjudged the O/U I took overs, I think they are doing that again now, I'm just taking all overs. I have to put in bets for bonuses/free bets/rollover anyways, right or wrong still +EV. I haven't taken the time to look and see how many went over vs Under. Perhaps that is something you know or can easily find. I'm Too lazy to look at my online accounts and weed through all the bets.

FYI, I had a friend who was supposed to play for the outlaws but instead, he did arena for short time. I haven't seen him for years until recently when I saw him on an episode of bar rescue playing the villain (hilarious).

Anyway. Can you elaborate more on the how, why, and what you're doing to find an advantage? Can you give us some picks? Ill absolutely bet them I don't care since I need to put in action anyways.

[AxelWolf]

Hey Mickey, just curious: you're such a road runner, the miles must have piled up on the car you just sold to your buddy.

How many miles did you put on it before letting it go?

Can't remember exactly. I bought it at 90K and it had around 200K when I sold it. Had it for 26 months. This year the travel won't be so heavy. I'm starting to slow down on it. I'll be hitting the big seven zero next month.

I envy your drive and work ethic. I couldn't(I could, but just not motivated) do what you do now, even 1O years ago, and you're 20 years+ my senior. I love my home, wife, animals, friends, hobbies, and relaxing and chilling too much.

[Rob.Singer]

Hey Mickey, just curious: you're such a road runner, the miles must have piled up on the car you just sold to your buddy.

How many miles did you put on it before letting it go?

Can't remember exactly. I bought it at 90K and it had around 200K when I sold it. Had it for 26 months. This year the travel won't be so heavy. I'm starting to slow down on it. I'll be hitting the big seven zero next month.

I envy your drive and work ethic. I couldn't(I could, but just not motivated) do what you do now, even 1O years ago, and you're 20 years+ my senior. I love my home, wife, animals, friends, hobbies, and relaxing and chilling too much.

No one can do everything. Mickey does what he does through great interest and motivation, and at an acceptable cost; much in the same way we all wonder what it would be like walking in his shoes every time he writes about his experiences. There isn't one person who reads about it that doesn't daydream.

The problem is we all age. I would imagine mickey had been a "hard-drinking mess of a man" in his younger days, which has a lore all its own. That eventually caught up with him, and it's amazing how he's been able to keep his foot on the gas after going thru a correction.

Those things you mention--home, wife, animals, friends (& I'll add family), hobbies, and especially the relaxing part: it would take an unusual and grizzled man to be able to just give that stuff up. Yet it becomes a bit chaotic when you try to do too much. I'm 4 years mickey's senior, but I still do a shit ton of driving because we find enjoyment in doing so, and I'm blessed with the ability to still be able to do it without issue. The trade-off comes in the form of dealing with the resulting cobwebs of purpose. So no....if you're at peace with what you do and why--just as mickey so obviously is--you are not doing the wrong thing.

BTW--in the Fezzik bio you'll notice how he finds NFL betting success by "focusing on only 5 games per week". I guess he remembers our battles on LVA Sports, and my success with the Singer Five, and why it was always only 5, back then. He learned well.

[Ozzy]

Can't remember exactly. I bought it at 90K and it had around 200K when I sold it. Had it for 26 months. This year the travel won't be so heavy. I'm starting to slow down on it. I'll be hitting the big seven zero next month.

I envy your drive and work ethic. I couldn't(I could, but just not motivated) do what you do now, even 1O years ago, and you're 20 years+ my senior. I love my home, wife, animals, friends, hobbies, and relaxing and chilling too much.

No one can do everything. Mickey does what he does through great interest and motivation, and at an acceptable cost; much in the same way we all wonder what it would be like walking in his shoes every time he writes about his experiences. There isn't one person who reads about it that doesn't daydream.

The problem is we all age. I would imagine mickey had been a "hard-drinking mess of a man" in his younger days, which has a lore all its own. That eventually caught up with him, and it's amazing how he's been able to keep his foot on the gas after going thru a correction.

Those things you mention--home, wife, animals, friends (& I'll add family), hobbies, and especially the relaxing part: it would take an unusual and grizzled man to be able to just give that stuff up. Yet it becomes a bit chaotic when you try to do too much. I'm 4 years mickey's senior, but I still do a shit ton of driving because we find enjoyment in doing so, and I'm blessed with the ability to still be able to do it without issue. The trade-off comes in the form of dealing with the resulting cobwebs of purpose. So no....if you're at peace with what you do and why--just as mickey so obviously is--you are not doing the wrong thing.

BTW--in the Fezzik bio you'll notice how he finds NFL betting success by "focusing on only 5 games per week". I guess he remembers our battles on LVA Sports, and my success with the Singer Five, and why it was always only 5, back then. He learned well.

This is not the same Singer speaking highly of Mickey 5+ years ago

[AxelWolf]

Can't remember exactly. I bought it at 90K and it had around 200K when I sold it. Had it for 26 months. This year the travel won't be so heavy. I'm starting to slow down on it. I'll be hitting the big seven zero next month.

I envy your drive and work ethic. I couldn't(I could, but just not motivated) do what you do now, even 1O years ago, and you're 20 years+ my senior. I love my home, wife, animals, friends, hobbies, and relaxing and chilling too much.

No one can do everything. Mickey does what he does through great interest and motivation, and at an acceptable cost; much in the same way we all wonder what it would be like walking in his shoes every time he writes about his experiences. There isn't one person who reads about it that doesn't daydream.

The problem is we all age. I would imagine mickey had been a "hard-drinking mess of a man" in his younger days, which has a lore all its own. That eventually caught up with him, and it's amazing how he's been able to keep his foot on the gas after going thru a correction.

Those things you mention--home, wife, animals, friends (& I'll add family), hobbies, and especially the relaxing part: it would take an unusual and grizzled man to be able to just give that stuff up. Yet it becomes a bit chaotic when you try to do too much. I'm 4 years mickey's senior, but I still do a shit ton of driving because we find enjoyment in doing so, and I'm blessed with the ability to still be able to do it without issue. The trade-off comes in the form of dealing with the resulting cobwebs of purpose. So no....if you're at peace with what you do and why--just as mickey so obviously is--you are not doing the wrong thing.

BTW--in the Fezzik bio you'll notice how he finds NFL betting success by "focusing on only 5 games per week". I guess he remembers our battles on LVA Sports, and my success with the Singer Five, and why it was always only 5, back then. He learned well.

I don't know what all those guys are really doing. Let me give a little insight and something to think about. This isn't directed any anyone in particular.

Let's start off with the fact that people feen (is it phene or feen?) for sports betting, especially so with guys who have money to burn(think young cocky guy working on wall street.)
Those guys are always looking for someone or some service that has "good picks" whoever is the flavor of the month. They will even pay a shit ton for tout services(OFC, that's nothing compared to the amounts they are betting)

Now we have a bunch of handicappers/sports bettors/ whatever who are entering contests, making picks, etc. Some with legit skil,l some not so much. But, at some point, a few people gonna run hot as fuck. Word travels fast and the next thing you know people are beating their doors down and feening to get in on the action. Suddenly all kinds of sweet deals and offers are being made. Big backers are offering free rolls, apps, websites, affiliates, tout services etc, too good to pass up. We won't know what's really going on with all that, it's usually kept quiet.


Whatever the case, some of those guys become infallible and legendary, they can do no wrong, and even when they run bad and things start to average out. People remember all the winning, everything else is just bad luck, so there's always money coming in somewhere.
There's nothing wrong with all that, people got to make a living.


IIRC RED's site touted their goal for investors was 10-12% returns in NFL alone. Who the Fuck would need or want investors if you can make 10-12% on NFL? Now just imagine if you're even better at college Football. Anyone with a legitimate long-term 5% + edge in major sports handicapping should be filthy rich since the amount of action you can get in is huge and the venues are plentiful.

[coach belly]

IIRC RED's site touted their goal for investors was 10-12% returns in NFL alone. Who the Fuck would need or want investors if you can make 10-12% on NFL?

Bob Dietz's Integrity Sports -- Sports Investment Leadership Since 1979

Our modus operandi is to provide a high volume of college football plays, a select number of NFL plays, and futures recommendations that provide 10-12% return on investment during the four months of the football season.

For monthly or seasonal fees, we provide our official lineup of college and NFL investment recommendations.

[kewlJ]

Could somebody provide a link to this statement of 10-12% return for investors?

I am not doubting this since several people have mentioned it, but I don't see it on the blog and when I google integrity sports, I come up with a register company by Lou Tevlin an MLB agent.

I would like to read this for myself.

[Rob.Singer]

IIRC RED's site touted their goal for investors was 10-12% returns in NFL alone. Who the Fuck would need or want investors if you can make 10-12% on NFL?

Bob Dietz's Integrity Sports -- Sports Investment Leadership Since 1979

Our modus operandi is to provide a high volume of college football plays, a select number of NFL plays, and futures recommendations that provide 10-12% return on investment during the four months of the football season.

For monthly or seasonal fees, we provide our official lineup of college and NFL investment recommendations.

And HOW many times has this confused clown denied he and his "experts" tried to get my credit card no. for picks--aka, "investment"???

[redietz]

I envy your drive and work ethic. I couldn't(I could, but just not motivated) do what you do now, even 1O years ago, and you're 20 years+ my senior. I love my home, wife, animals, friends, hobbies, and relaxing and chilling too much.

No one can do everything. Mickey does what he does through great interest and motivation, and at an acceptable cost; much in the same way we all wonder what it would be like walking in his shoes every time he writes about his experiences. There isn't one person who reads about it that doesn't daydream.

The problem is we all age. I would imagine mickey had been a "hard-drinking mess of a man" in his younger days, which has a lore all its own. That eventually caught up with him, and it's amazing how he's been able to keep his foot on the gas after going thru a correction.

Those things you mention--home, wife, animals, friends (& I'll add family), hobbies, and especially the relaxing part: it would take an unusual and grizzled man to be able to just give that stuff up. Yet it becomes a bit chaotic when you try to do too much. I'm 4 years mickey's senior, but I still do a shit ton of driving because we find enjoyment in doing so, and I'm blessed with the ability to still be able to do it without issue. The trade-off comes in the form of dealing with the resulting cobwebs of purpose. So no....if you're at peace with what you do and why--just as mickey so obviously is--you are not doing the wrong thing.

BTW--in the Fezzik bio you'll notice how he finds NFL betting success by "focusing on only 5 games per week". I guess he remembers our battles on LVA Sports, and my success with the Singer Five, and why it was always only 5, back then. He learned well.

I don't know what all those guys are really doing. Let me give a little insight and something to think about. This isn't directed any anyone in particular.

Let's start off with the fact that people feen (is it phene or feen?) for sports betting, especially so with guys who have money to burn(think young cocky guy working on wall street.)
Those guys are always looking for someone or some service that has "good picks" whoever is the flavor of the month. They will even pay a shit ton for tout services(OFC, that's nothing compared to the amounts they are betting)

Now we have a bunch of handicappers/sports bettors/ whatever who are entering contests, making picks, etc. Some with legit skil,l some not so much. But, at some point, a few people gonna run hot as fuck. Word travels fast and the next thing you know people are beating their doors down and feening to get in on the action. Suddenly all kinds of sweet deals and offers are being made. Big backers are offering free rolls, apps, websites, affiliates, tout services etc, too good to pass up. We won't know what's really going on with all that, it's usually kept quiet.


Whatever the case, some of those guys become infallible and legendary, they can do no wrong, and even when they run bad and things start to average out. People remember all the winning, everything else is just bad luck, so there's always money coming in somewhere.
There's nothing wrong with all that, people got to make a living.


IIRC RED's site touted their goal for investors was 10-12% returns in NFL alone. Who the Fuck would need or want investors if you can make 10-12% on NFL? Now just imagine if you're even better at college Football. Anyone with a legitimate long-term 5% + edge in major sports handicapping should be filthy rich since the amount of action you can get in is huge and the venues are plentiful.

Axelwolf, you clearly have no idea what 10-12% return means. Have you no bank accounts? That is so bizarre. It really is.

It means if you start in September with 100K, the goal is to finish December with 110-112K. That is the normal American definition of 10-12% return.

A 10-12% return goal has nothing to do with having a 10-12% edge. Can you read? Have you ever talked to a financial advisor or sat down in a bank?

The reading comprehension is mind-blowing.

And "IIRC" is great unless you don't recall it correctly. LOL. You got it wrong, as in completely wrong.

I have to think this is all trolling, especially since the website snapshot was from 2000 or thereabouts.

Now I have a serious question, Axelwolf. Did you drink alcohol before posting? I can't imagine a sober Axelwolf could misinterpet 10-12% return as a 10-12% edge FOR EVERY SINGLE EVENT. How could anyone who ever set foot into a bank? Or anyone who seriously gambled?

There is something seriously wrong with someone who reads 10-12% return as meaning "for every single event." That is some brain-dead reading comprehension.

Unbelievable.

So when a bank promises Axelwolf a 3% return, does Axelwolf assume it's per day, per investment decision, every time his money is moved to something different he gets another 3%?

Jesus, man, visit a bank one of these days.

[AxelWolf]

Could somebody provide a link to this statement of 10-12% return for investors?

I am not doubting this since several people have mentioned it, but I don't see it on the blog and when I google integrity sports, I come up with a register company by Lou Tevlin an MLB agent.

I would like to read this for myself.

I don't know if that's still something you can currently access. You have to use the way back machine.

[redietz]

What regnis said.

You know, last week I launched on a Seattle XFL ML at -124 because I knew it would move. Today I launched on Houston -7 1/2 (buying it to -7) for roughly 2K because I thought it much more likely that it would go up rather than down. I also opened teasers on the game for additional money.

Telling us you knew the line was going to move doesn't tell anyone anything. Telling us WHY you knew the line was going to move would be telling everyone something. All you like to do is pound your chest telling everyone how good you are and how they don't know jackshit. Put up some meat and potatoes or STFU.

Mickey, you're so wrong, I can't help you. LOL. Telling you the line was going to move is based on "I know the teams. I know the public. And the line is likely to move." Now I could go into a spiel about what these teams look like, their ATS history, the public airwaves info regarding the Orlando backup QB being accused of selling his team's plays, and his being suspended, then the alleged debunking of that, which likely leads the public to deciding certain things about Orlando, and on and on. All of which are true. But my decision and wagers had to be done immediately.

By the time I wrote all the nonsense down, the line would have moved. Again -- LOL.

Either you know what you're doing, or (like you) you think you know what you're doing. Or a little of both and you host betting seminars.

And why would anyone spell out why they thought a line would move? What's the percentage in that? Impress somebody? C'mon, man.