Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
in 2021 JohnZimbo won it going 71-36________66% winners__________30% r.o.i.
I'd want to look at his reasoning, if available. Because this outcome can happen through ordinary chance.

From a probability calculator:

https://goodcalculators.com/coin-fli...ty-calculator/

Name: coin probs.png Views: 1246 Size: 46.8 KB

If my actual skill level is 55%, then my chance of achieving 66%+ in 100 trials is almost 2%.

If I'm applying this correctly, then a 60-entrant contest should produce one 66%+ outcome despite everyone being only 55% skilled.

If I'm totally unskilled (50%), then I'm only 0.1% to achieve 66%+. But a contest of >1000 unskilled entrants should produce at least one such outlier.