Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Spike, I read your anti-Law of Large numbers rant at WoV. It is complete nonsense. Shame on Wizard for allowing that crap on a forum supposed to be about the math....free speech or no free speech policy.

And there is nothing new about your "short term defying" positions. Rob Singer has taken that exact same position for a decade or more. That right there tells you everything you need know.

And I will tell you the same thing I told Singer, using your game roulette as the example. Can a player walk into a casino play roulette bet black and win 3 out of 4 spins and leave? Absolutely. Can a player duplicate that every day for a year? Absolutely not. THAT sir is the Law of Large Numbers (or trials) at play.
Having an 80% hit rate does not mean winning 3 out of 4 every time. It does mean winning mean winning every session however. And the law lof Large numbers does not apply to individual short term events. How could it. Google it and you will see.