Advantage Keno Play

[1Hit1der]

So the main game payback is: 8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?

[accountinquestion]

What UNKewlJ doesn't get is that the jig is up...and that the sum of all his improbable lying stories have added up to the knowing, knowing that he has been lying all along. About everything.

KJ is different because (1) I initially believed him, more or less, and (2) he is imo a complete fraud. I don't mean a liar, I mean a complete fraud, like catfish style. And that is not something you see every day and is really kind of fascinating.

Mdawg just like AccountinQuestion, you have nothing I have ever said that defies the math, nor even has been proven false, with the exception of a couple things that I have admitted due to protecting myself and information. You trollingly (my own word) have a list of 20 or so things you choose not to believe, but not a single thing is proven. It is simply an act of trolling, which I admit you are a master at. You are a master at it because "mDawg" isn't your first go around on these forums or at trolling.

Now I want to address this smurgerburger quote, that you repeatedly quote. Smurgerburger, like a few others seems particularly or "extra" hurt because he initially believed me and then saw me lie about something to protect myself and now seems extra hurt. Well guess what? There is a reason why he, a usual reasonable and smart guy believed me. Because everything I claimed or said is exactly how things work. Ever heard that first instincts are usually the right instincts? I am sorry if he and a few others feel betrayed because I needed to lie about something to protect myself.

I have no doubt about almost everything people like mickeycrimm or axelwolf say or claim. Not everything, but probably better than 99%. If I caught or strongly suspected they lied about something and had reason to, I wouldn't then dismiss everything they have said or claimed. I believe there is an old saying about that. Something about "throwing out the baby with the bathwater".

But people are free to think whatever they want. Really, it changes nothing for me, who I am, what I do.

If A is exceptionally very unlikely, and B is exceptionally very unlikely, and C is exceptionally very unlikely and you make a claim where all 3 have to be true well then you're full of shit all of the time. Call it the qualitative math. You don't get this.

I don't think smurgerburger is upset because he believed you. He probably respects you more as a forum character simply because of your consistency and ability to pull this off for years. You act like he feels betrayed by you. It is more of respect for your bullshit more than anything. A sort of "well played". Anyhow, that is how I read the quote.

Others - I find Kewl fascinating because no one really knows to what degree he believes himself. Mental illness can be fascinating. Like to me it is 100% clear in my head when I am bullshitting but it is possible people get so wrapped up in their nonsense and their way of life that they believe themselves. Just as it was important to start up the lie - it is just as important to keep it going. Along the way this is what happens.

Kewl - Maybe I will spend some time looking through various media outlets to see if i can find where you were backroomed and assaulted. Does that make you nervous?

[accountinquestion]

Finished reading this thread. It seems that when Kewl is put on the spot yet again by people other than Mdawg and Singer he really goes hard with the teachable moments.

[Treeshade]

Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.

Complete nonsense. Slow and steady (reduced or minimized variance) should only be top priority to players playing under-funded. Once you have the proper BR, this should no longer be top priority. Win rate should become top priority, although there may be other considerations, like cover/longevity in blackjack.

Once I had the proper bankroll, I have always done things that increased or invited variance with priority on win rate and longevity.

There comes a point that every player should dance to his own tune.

This depends on how the play is constructed, where the value in the play comes from ( for example does it come from mail or a promotion that can be shut down ) , how much time does I take to run, what’s your opportunity cost per hour. There are many scenarios where reducing variance is absolutely the best course of action. I’m not talking about the obvious like bankroll size.

I have one currently.

Play A takes me roughly 1.5 hours with a guaranteed loss of X but returns me roughly 7x over a certain time.

Play A can also be run over a 6 to 8 hour period avoiding taxables with a loss roughly half of X ( even possible to win but it’s still negative EV off the top ) still returns roughly 7x over time

The second method has increased Heat and the chance of getting thrown out is higher. It also takes around 4x times as long.

With limited hours in a day and help / team members its best to utilize the first method. Team
Members can go do more work instead of sitting on this play for one entire day to squeeze out some theoretical EV

Advantage play in the casino environment often has many factors that are not math related. Putting down a play is more nuanced and every play is different. Nothing is played in a vacuum

[Treeshade]

The 2-spot is about .1% better than the other numbers.

How is picking two numbers 0.1% better than picking more numbers, and, why worry about 0.1% = 0.001 as compared to a "90.89% game", whatever that means?


1Hit1der
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You seem to be asking out of genuine curiosity, so I'll give my take:

It's not strictly better, but it reduces variance. For an extreme example of variance, if a game had a 10% house edge and zero variance, then you would just bet $1.00 and lose $0.10 every single play.

Variance is the reason why a gambler can play a negative expectation game, but sometimes, be ahead...often for long periods of time/many trials. For example, someone who hits the Mega Millions Jackpot is extremely unlikely to ever be a lifetime loser at playing the Mega Millions; this despite the fact that they might have bet into a hugely negative expectation.

If you're betting at a positive expectation, then you might be inclined to avoid variance for several reasons. One potential reason to want to minimize variance is limited bankroll; the reason for that is because Variance can result in stronger and longer-lasting swings. I don't believe that is why Crimm mentioned Keno here.

In the case of this Keno game, I think one would want to minimize Variance in order to get the proverbial, 'Long run,' faster, such that the actual return of a play is more likely to closely approximate the expected return, with fewer plays. As Crimm suggested in his post, if hitting six out of six is a relative long shot, but some of your expected return comes from hitting six out of six, then you endure more variance and may make the realization of your advantage take longer.

On the other hand, you could hit the six out of six on the very first play and rapidly exceed your expected value by virtue of doing so.

Either way, in the short-term, people playing a negative expectation game can be do so profitably because of variance. Similar to our slot machine where you can only bet $1.000 and lose $0.10 every time, if Crimm had a 5% edge with zero variance, then the only outcome of betting $1.00 would be a return of $1.05 of which $0.05 would be profit.

How rich would you be if you actually cared about money ? How many of your family members could you help ? So sharp

[jdog]

SV, when you're not talking about your dick, you say some very reasonable stuff...

[Treeshade]

SV, when you're not talking about your dick, you say some very reasonable stuff...

Kind of hard not to talk about this heavy hitter when I wake up with it everyday

O I got the Pm

I’m not discussing public no one seemed interested but you. Maybe one day

[jdog]

O I got the Pm

I’m not discussing public no one seemed interested but you. Maybe one day

Fair enough.

[mickeycrimm]

So the main game payback is: 8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

I'm not a Keno player. What happens over the other about 16 tries, given a win of about 8 units over about 17 tries? Lose $0.75 over the other 16 tries?

You'll average missing the 2-spot 15.63158 games out of 16.63158 games. You'll average hitting the 2-spot once every 16.63158 games....which pays 8.3333 for 1.

8.3333/16.63158 = 50.1%.

[mickeycrimm]

I just thought that Crimm must then have a Kelly criterion, or other, calculation, based on the different game-variances, to optimize the grow rate of his bankroll. Slow and steady is best, even if the chance, of winning particular bets, is less.

Besides that, the distinction between the variances of the wins/losses, and bet sizes, of a game, versus, the variance of the sample size of thus outcomes. I remember that Jacobson pointed out, at WoV, something about variances not changing, strictly speaking, but, I hesitate to get into something like that here.

I have several questions about Crimm's post. We'll see what happens.

On the other hand, armed with a bit more information, I'm trying to clean up the notion of an element-0, in the period table of (chemical) elements. I let off, several years ago, with the notion that it amounts to the atomic components in isolation, in a absolute sense. As opposed to a collection of neutrons. Knowing the exact number of thus elements, specifically the number of rows of, makes it a lot easier to choose one notion over the other, in terms of how the matter, versus antimatter, thus tables "come together". And, to know which has to be cleaned up, or further developed a bit, to fit into what I'm trying to do.

I didn't use Kelly criterion because I was way over bankrolled. Like at least 100X Kelly. My gig was how much expectation could I find and play off in a 4 or five hour working day. In my case it was about $500 a day for years.

When you are working the big edges that I described in this keno play there is just no fluctuation in bankroll when you are spinning off 4 or five plays a day. The earn is consistent to the point that it's rare to have a losing day. But I WAS limited on the amount of money I could make. You can't raise or lower your bet on a video keno play. You have to stick to the same bet size until the play is complete. I just payed attention to hourly rate.

[Mission146]

How rich would you be if you actually cared about money ? How many of your family members could you help ? So sharp

That's nice of you to say. I honestly have no idea; it's tough to imagine a hypothetical where I have ambition, drive and am at all greed motivated. My family members are fine; there's really only my mom (who is retired in relative comfort), my sister (who's fine-mostly courtesy of my mom) and my kids who will be fine. Any other family I have I either don't know or don't care about at all. The ones who I did care about to an appreciable degree are all dead.

[1Hit1der]

How rich would you be if you actually cared about money ? How many of your family members could you help ? So sharp

That's nice of you to say. I honestly have no idea; it's tough to imagine a hypothetical where I have ambition, drive and am at all greed motivated. My family members are fine; there's really only my mom (who is retired in relative comfort), my sister (who's fine-mostly courtesy of my mom) and my kids who will be fine. Any other family I have I either don't know or don't care about at all. The ones who I did care about to an appreciable degree are all dead.

Mission, you don't think that Tasha's textbook schizoid, but, Seedvalue's textbook schizo? To me, sure looks like the textbook thus progression.

P.S. I mean, say, from living in a fantasy world, to, actually believing it.

[Mission146]

I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.

[MisterV]

Do you think he's made a lot of his team members "rich" as he likes to claim?

And that cock of his...do you think he really rivals Mr. Ed in that department as he'd have us believe?

Or...wait for it...could it be, dare I say it, "fantasy?"

Or perhaps an insidious form of "mental illness?"

[kewlJ]

Do you think he's made a lot of his team members "rich" as he likes to claim?

And that cock of his...do you think he really rivals Mr. Ed in that department as he'd have us believe?

Or...wait for it...could it be, dare I say it, "fantasy?"

Or perhaps an insidious form of "mental illness?"

I don't know if it rises to the level of mental illness, but it is most definitely insecurity, MrV. When people are on forums telling you they have made tens of millions gambling (advantage play) they are full of shit. They are telling a fantasy story.

People and players can win money by doing something where the math flips the long-term outcome to their side. But advantage players that do this for any period of time have to work to be able to keep doing it. It is an almost daily battle with the casinos.

When I started sharing my journey, including the money involved and the battles involved (variance/heat/backoffs), it was because there were people on the blackjack forums, I was on at the time, including the MIT guys that were painting a very unrealistic picture of winning, winning winning, almost like the casinos are handing out buckets of money. Like that is the business they are in. So I shared for many years what kind of money could be made and what was involved with doing so, as a card counter. The ups and down. The losing periods. The heat and backoffs, and last year the back-rooming.

Now yes, I know there is a lot more to advantage play than my narrow, little arena of card counting. Some players doing incredible things. New things everyday. Most things I don't understand. But I refuse to believe that so many people are just making buckets of money, hundred of thousands a week, millions of dollars a year. That is just not reality. The casino industry works way too hard, utilizing the latest technology to be sure that doesn't happen at the levels these people are claiming.

There has always been two paths to advantage play. 1) milking or sheering. Focus on longevity. You play limits and a style that is somewhat tolerated. And you learn what is tolerated. And you learn and play the cat and mouse game. Not really tricking or hiding, just finding a comfort level that is tolerated for at least a while. 2) Slaughter. Burn and slash. You get as much as you can for as long as you can (shorter and shorter durations).

But these guys today want us to believe they get that top amount on an ongoing basis. That no one cares. The casinos are fine with it. That is just not reality. It is in fact fantasy, and every one of these kinds of claims from Mdawg, to Singer, to "others" are just that.... fantasy. Some of these people might be making some money, but they are not doing the fantasy nonsense they claim, making millions yearly, making many others rich. ect.

And as soon as one of these guys starts talking about how big their dick is, come on. That is as big a tell as anyone who labels themselves the best or the GOAT. Insecurity at its peak.

That is mostly what these forums are insecure dude, making up fantasy because they are dissatisfied with something about their life and how it nhas played out. And as soon as someone injects a dose of reality, or math into the equation, they are the bad guy.

[redietz]

I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.

Well, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.

It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.

Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.

[accountinquestion]

Stfu and go on Druff's show.

[accountinquestion]

Stop all the goddam typing.

[1Hit1der]

I could probably type something at random, and then it would still come out to something in the solver. Ha.


akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl


What the fuck did I, just, tell you? Ha.

akljfgouqwe4klq0978q34j3opgaklhuioq2wjhwet5oiugw90 87we6tjkwgopuw54jopuwertjhopubnkl

---> People That Are Going to Hell.

https://anagram-solver.net/%20akljfg...0?partial=true

[mickeycrimm]

I'm unwilling to discuss private conversations, but I will say that I have reason to believe that SeedValue is legitimately an advantage player. This should not be taken as an absolute endorsement of ALL of his claims (it isn't) or an endorsement that people should work with him (I've never worked with him and don't know what he's like off-forum), but he does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know.

Well, here's a quandary for you, Mission. If you have someone who "does know some things that only someone who knows what he's doing would know" who also DOES NOT know some things that anyone who knows what they're doing would know, what do you do with that? I mean the question sincerely, because I buy all the Seedvalue spiels about non-sports "AP" play. Of course, I know crap about most forms of "AP" play, so why wouldn't I buy them? But then he says some bizarro stuff, like when he didn't know prostitution was illegal in LV, and it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.

It's not like I'm looking to debunk Seedvalue. He just says some things that are eye-poppingly wrong, and because I've actually spent 50 years betting sports, and because I spent 20-plus years traipsing all over LV a hundred days a year, I'm evidently more aware of his completely off kilter comments when he makes them. That whole spiel of his about not liking to bet sports because it's behind a computer and he's not hands-on raping the casino cash boxes in person -- I mean, LOL. C'mon, man. Do your business in person! How hard is that? It's not like you're more likely to be banned/restricted because you give the casinos some facetime. You may be LESS likely to be banned/restricted betting sports if you do things hands on.

Some of the Seedvalue spiels are bizarrely off, and I'm not talking about the dong references. And it's not because anybody quizzed him; he just inserts discordant crap because he doesn't know it's discordant. He makes assumptions about sports betting that are in line with assumptions about other types of gambling, but his sports betting assumptions happen to be not quite right. He presumes things that shouldn't be presumed, and because those presumptions line up with various forms of "AP" play, most people buy it.

Your forte? Accusations without examples or quotes. You should go into politics. You've heard of Tricky Dick. You could be Babblin' Bobby.