Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
.

in 2007 the FBI found that NBA ref Tim Donaghy had been betting on games that he officiated
Donaghy was making bets with the Mob
there were allegations that 2 referees fixed an NBA playoff game
Donaghy went to prison
a book was written about this and it later became a movie
This year I have been using "pace of game" more as a predictive indicator. Pace of game is more than just looking for teams that score in the 60's or score in the 80's (college) or regularly score 125+ a game (in the pros). Pace of game is more about how long each possession is. There are teams that like to get a shot up in the first 10 seconds. If you can slow them down into using 15-20 seconds (college) you are controlling the pace of the game. There are "pace numbers" for each team that are indicative of this. You can still have a game where both teams score in the 70's easily topping the over, even when one team has controlled the pace of the game.

One of the factors that can really screw you when looking for a slower paced game is the referee. Without anything suspicious, you will see games where every little bump is called a foul. Both teams are over the bonus half way through either half and the game is an endless parade to the foul line. Announcers will often describe this as calling the game "tightly". Then you will see another game where the players are practically mugging each other on every play and nothing is being called. Announcers will say something like "they are letting them play".

The difference in these two situations can easily add 20 points to either halves total. A game with a slow pace that maybe have been 31-29 at half time becomes a game that is 42-39.

If a referee was going to fix a game, I think this would be the less obvious way to do it, rather than a bunch of one-sided calls that favor one team. (and this probably happens imo).