Quick Note for Todd

[redietz]

Todd,

I'll be in Las Vegas from June 2-7. The first half of the trip, I'll be traveling with sociologist, Dr. Scott Beck. We'll be staying at the Golden Nugget. If you'd like to drop by for lunch or something, let me know. If you'd like to do a podcast interview during my visit, also let me know. We can do it onsite in LV or via phone when I return home. Either is fine with me. Maybe Dr. Beck could sit in on the interview

Dr. Beck is a former Fulbright scholar who also was on a committee to choose other Fulbright scholars in the Western Hemisphere. He has handled some of the research math courses for the ETSU Department of Sociology and Anthropology.

In any event, I'll also do my breakfast-at-South Point, probably Thursday morning, for any intrepid APs who want to drop in and ask me regarding the limits of using phrases like "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I may also do a camp-out at either the Main Street brew pub or the Oscar's Happy Hour for the same opportunities.

MaxPen, account, kewlJ, mickey, all are invited. And Rob, you and your wife still have a standing invitation for dinner. I think we're doing Vic and Anthony's Monday night, but I'll confirm the time later in the week.

Special invite to Boz if he can make it.

All emails should be directed to IntegritySports@aol.com.

[Rob.Singer]

Typical redietz to try and prop up his failed brand by adding in this "Dr. Beck" who nobody ever heard of or cares about.

[redietz]

Ahhh, so people promote brands without selling anything? I learn something new from Argentino every day. He's a cornucopia of intellectual brilliance.

Anybody can google Dr. Beck. He's an old (20 years plus) friend. If you want to read his stuff, I recommend:

https://www.amazon.com/Pachakutik-De.../dp/0896802809

I know Rob and mickey put a lot of stock in reviews, so check out the reviews of one of his books. I see "excellent," "coherent," "fascinating," and "wonderfully insightful" among the descriptions. And yeah, I know his co-author, too. LOL.

[mickeycrimm]

Redietz is not an expert on "expected value." He's not a math guy, period. His opinion is just one of many. He could have discussed expected value on GWAE or Life is a Gamble where his opinion would be scrutinized by many pros in the sports betting world who could chime in with their own opinions. But he declined to participate on those podcasts. All the while telling VCT that he was going to participate.

[accountinquestion]

If only I was in LV. Can you push your trip back to the week after?

Redietz, any mutli-disclipined AP readily understands the implied uncertainty but when talking to.other sharps it is implied and no one cares to add a prefix.

What a hill....

[mcap]

I never get invited when real life Las Vegas shit is going on.

[redietz]

Redietz is not an expert on "expected value." He's not a math guy, period. His opinion is just one of many. He could have discussed expected value on GWAE or Life is a Gamble where his opinion would be scrutinized by many pros in the sports betting world who could chime in with their own opinions. But he declined to participate on those podcasts. All the while telling VCT that he was going to participate.

LOL. I'm more than happy to be on GWAE, AND I'll discuss "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I never got a formal invite, first of all, and second, my co-host of the Gambler book club meeting was invited, but as of now has declined (as historically usual). I didn't want to overlap too much with my co-host's possible discussions.

But yeah, no problem.

And mickey, you should visit LV in a week. Dr. Beck taught college probability for the social sciences, so you could discuss some math issues with him that I'm too dumb to handle.

No, don't thank me. I'm always happy to put great minds in touch with each other.

But let me get you to clarify one thing, mickey. I'm not a "math guy." Is Richard Munchkin, in your view, a "math guy?" What makes a "math guy?" Now, for example, I got a 740 on math SATs, and I review, lesson by lesson, a Texas college probability course each year. But I am no "math guy." Dr. Beck, a full professor, taught math-oriented courses for the social sciences, but I'm not sure that makes him a "math guy." Shackleford, who's not a full professor, taught similar courses. Is he a "math guy?" What makes a "math guy?"

The guy I go to for programming help got an 800 (perfect) on his math SATs and he does his own programming, and I think he has an MBA to boot. I suspect he's a "math guy." But I'm not sure he fits your definition, which I'm sure is much wiser than mine. Can you help me out with this? What is your definition of a math guy?

I'd hate for me to be consulting people who had perfect math SATs all these years, or who taught college probability, and discover that according to mickey crimm, they are NOT "math guys." Help me out, buddy.

[redietz]

If only I was in LV. Can you push your trip back to the week after?

Redietz, any mutli-disclipined AP readily understands the implied uncertainty but when talking to.other sharps it is implied and no one cares to add a prefix.

What a hill....

Implied uncertainty. You don't get it. If there's a certain degree of "implied uncertainty," and it's not a closed system, you shouldn't be doing "EV estimates" going forward. If you want to do them in retrospect and couch everything with the "this is what was; it's not necessarily what is, and it may bear no resemblance to what will be," then go ahead. Sports wagering is going forward, and you have no established reason to wager going forward. You have at best, a ballpark estimate that has no utility given the margins and the crudity of your estimate. At worst, you're guessing for no good reason other than you're committed to gambling.

This isn't complicated. It's obvious.

[smurgerburger]

Sports wagering is going forward, and you have no established reason to wager going forward. You have at best, a ballpark estimate that has no utility given the margins and the crudity of your estimate. At worst, you're guessing for no good reason other than you're committed to gambling.

This isn't complicated. It's obvious.

So this is meant to be an argument against sports betting? Do you not consider yourself a sports bettor?

[redietz]

This concludes my posting. I'll PM Todd in case he somehow misses this post. This is 740 Math SAT not-a-math-guy signing over and out.

Juventus stultorum magister.

P.S. mcap, you're invited. Just shoot me an email.

[kewlJ]

Redietz, congratulations on doing well on your math SAT....a half century ago.

Math is ultra important in being a long-term winning gambler. But it is not the only thing. There are plenty of real smart math guys that.cant win shit gambling.

Enjoy your Vegas visit. Win enough to pay your taxes.

[mickeycrimm]

Redietz is not an expert on "expected value." He's not a math guy, period. His opinion is just one of many. He could have discussed expected value on GWAE or Life is a Gamble where his opinion would be scrutinized by many pros in the sports betting world who could chime in with their own opinions. But he declined to participate on those podcasts. All the while telling VCT that he was going to participate.

LOL. I'm more than happy to be on GWAE, AND I'll discuss "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I never got a formal invite, first of all, and second, my co-host of the Gambler book club meeting was invited, but as of now has declined (as historically usual). I didn't want to overlap too much with my co-host's possible discussions.

Yeah, sure. Now that GWAE is defunct you're all willing to appear. LMFAO!

I'm in contact with Munchkin. I asked him straight up why you didn't appear on the show. HE SAID HE ASKED YOU TO DO THE SHOW AND YOU SAID NO. Then he said he asked you if your girlfriend would appear on the show and you said she wanted to maintain her privacy too. What the fuck did you expect? To get a formal letter asking you to appear after you refused him flat? GTFO!

Shut the fuck up about not being formally invited.

Oh, and your co-host at the Johnson City pizza joint that was also invited on Munchkin's podcast?

Tell us, redietz. What is HER name?

Dude, you are nothing but smoke and mirrors. But not particularly good at it.

[Rob.Singer]

Funny....kew trying to denigrate a sports betting hustler in an effort to take some of the heat off of himself for concocting fake gambling stories and getting caught lying about everything.

Somebody----name a time redietz hasn't included some obscure, irrelevant character into his "hey everybody! look at me and who I have as an acquaintance!!" LV visits, 30-years-ago exploits, and collections of "industry-known" experts, meant to throw cold water on those who see him for who and what he really is.

[redietz]

Redietz is not an expert on "expected value." He's not a math guy, period. His opinion is just one of many. He could have discussed expected value on GWAE or Life is a Gamble where his opinion would be scrutinized by many pros in the sports betting world who could chime in with their own opinions. But he declined to participate on those podcasts. All the while telling VCT that he was going to participate.

LOL. I'm more than happy to be on GWAE, AND I'll discuss "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I never got a formal invite, first of all, and second, my co-host of the Gambler book club meeting was invited, but as of now has declined (as historically usual). I didn't want to overlap too much with my co-host's possible discussions.

Yeah, sure. Now that GWAE is defunct you're all willing to appear. LMFAO!

I'm in contact with Munchkin. I asked him straight up why you didn't appear on the show. HE SAID HE ASKED YOU TO DO THE SHOW AND YOU SAID NO. Then he said he asked you if your girlfriend would appear on the show and you said she wanted to maintain her privacy too. What the fuck did you expect? To get a formal letter asking you to appear after you refused him flat? GTFO!

Shut the fuck up about not being formally invited.

Oh, and your co-host at the Johnson City pizza joint that was also invited on Munchkin's podcast?

Tell us, redietz. What is HER name?

Dude, you are nothing but smoke and mirrors. But not particularly good at it.

Munchkin never directly asked me. Not via email or at lunch. Hell, I would have said yes. Now I feel obligated to tell him I'd be happy to be on it. I'll email him tomorrow.

My girlfriend generally avoids publicity, but she was planning on inviting Munchkin to Vic and Anthony's to discuss stuff a couple of months ago. But there was a family emergency, and the smoke still isn't clear on that, so her trip didn't happen. She usually meets up with her brother in LV. He was the VP of Boeing from the Retro Road Trip thread.

I'll email Munchkin tomorrow and tell him you told me I had an invite. They are always doing new shows of some kind, so I'll get on the list. I guess I should give him a heads up that Dr. Beck and I will be there next week. I'll do that and invite him to lunch or dinner. That would be the neighborly thing to do.

Mickey, I'll tell you what. Shoot down to LV, and you can ask Dr. Beck, since he was at the Book Club meeting, what her name is. Meanwhile, I'll see if she wants to share her email with you. Dr. Beck and Dr. Cavender were the guys who proposed doing the Walters book to the book club, by the way. It wasn't me.

[redietz]

Funny....kew trying to denigrate a sports betting hustler in an effort to take some of the heat off of himself for concocting fake gambling stories and getting caught lying about everything.

Somebody----name a time redietz hasn't included some obscure, irrelevant character into his "hey everybody! look at me and who I have as an acquaintance!!" LV visits, 30-years-ago exploits, and collections of "industry-known" experts, meant to throw cold water on those who see him for who and what he really is.

You and the wife are still invited for dinner. LOL. But first, please tell me who and what I really am. Inquiring minds want to know!

[mickeycrimm]

LOL. I'm more than happy to be on GWAE, AND I'll discuss "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I never got a formal invite, first of all, and second, my co-host of the Gambler book club meeting was invited, but as of now has declined (as historically usual). I didn't want to overlap too much with my co-host's possible discussions.

In the above post redietz is referring to his "co-host" at the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting on Billy Walter's book.

And Munchkin told me that after redietz refused to do the podcast he (Munchkin) asked if his girlfriend would do an interview.

And now here is redietz saying that his "co-host" was invited to do GWAE but declined.

So what can we surmise from this information?

Redietz girlfriend was his "co-host."

Just one more thing ditz has been trying to hide from us.

[redietz]

LOL. I'm more than happy to be on GWAE, AND I'll discuss "Expected Value" vis-a-vis sports betting. I never got a formal invite, first of all, and second, my co-host of the Gambler book club meeting was invited, but as of now has declined (as historically usual). I didn't want to overlap too much with my co-host's possible discussions.

In the above post redietz is referring to his "co-host" at the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting on Billy Walter's book.

And Munchkin told me that after redietz refused to do the podcast he (Munchkin) asked if his girlfriend would do an interview.

And now here is redietz saying that his "co-host" was invited to do GWAE but declined.

So what can we surmise from this information?

Redietz girlfriend was his "co-host."

Just one more thing ditz has been trying to hide from us.

Puh-leese. Are you kidding me, mickey? I did everything possible to NOT hide it. Did you notice the torturous non-use of pronouns every single friggin' time I said anything about the book club? Every stupid time. Do you know how old it gets writing "my co-host" instead of a pronoun? It gets old fast. Because I gave my word I wouldn't spell out her name online.

LOL. Yeah, I was really hiding things. Jesus Christ, mickey. You need coffee, man. Come to LV. Starbucks is $5 a cup at the GN. I'll buy.

Over and out. Anybody need to get in touch -- you know the email. And thanks to mickey for the heads-up regarding Munchkin's show.

[Dan Druff]

Yes, I'll likely be in Vegas during those dates. I'll be in touch.

[accountinquestion]

If only I was in LV. Can you push your trip back to the week after?

Redietz, any mutli-disclipined AP readily understands the implied uncertainty but when talking to.other sharps it is implied and no one cares to add a prefix.

What a hill....

Implied uncertainty. You don't get it. If there's a certain degree of "implied uncertainty," and it's not a closed system, you shouldn't be doing "EV estimates" going forward. If you want to do them in retrospect and couch everything with the "this is what was; it's not necessarily what is, and it may bear no resemblance to what will be," then go ahead. Sports wagering is going forward, and you have no established reason to wager going forward. You have at best, a ballpark estimate that has no utility given the margins and the crudity of your estimate. At worst, you're guessing for no good reason other than you're committed to gambling.

This isn't complicated. It's obvious.

Yes, it is obvious just like your post is nonsense.

It isn't me who doesn't "get it". You lack the intelligence to understand what you don't understand. That is just how things work. This situation is no different.

I could pick your post apart but ultimately you never answer direct questions so why bother. It is like you're telling people to not sports bet because it can't be done.

lol sooooo smart, yet so scared to legitimately engage.

I'd bet 1/2 the regulars who are professional gamblers are a full standard deviation above you in the IQ dist.

To the rest of you guys - the above Redietz post is nonsensical. Redietz has never been a cash sports bettor. He thinks VCT is Vegas Clown Town and he showed up, 'Where da line to get in at?'.

someone else clue him in. it is tedious and his skull is just too thick. He literally hasn't learned a fucking thing about sports betting in 30 years.

Redietz, spare us.

[accountinquestion]

LOL. Yeah, I was really hiding things. Jesus Christ, mickey. You need coffee, man. Come to LV. Starbucks is $5 a cup at the GN. I'll buy.

Lol @ Redietz bragging about being able to afford $5 coffees for people.

I literally couldn't make this shit up.

VegasClownTown.com buy it up.