Professional Sportsbetting

[MisterV]

You guys are anonymous posters who don't appear to have any real gambling accomplishments, much less life accomplishments in general.

Define "accomplishments."

BTW many of us, myself included, post on these forums not in search of kudos for accomplishments but just to chill and entertain ourselves, typically at the expense of others.

Sure, when anonymous posters make patently bullshit claims our eyes open up wide but we've lived on this spinning orb long enough to tell fact from fiction, and hey: at the end of the day does any of this shit REALLY matter?

[accountinquestion]

Comped nights at Plaza?? I got an offer recently then noticed they were tacking on a $40 a night resort fee. $40 downtown at that place... they must be hitting a crack pipe at those marketing meetings lol.

They can't comp food anywhere in the casinon except fast food and that trashy "steakhouse". I have mixed feelings in the place. Single zero roulette and things if that nature makes it a place to gamble at.

Account, open your eyes (for once). First of all, the Plaza is making an effort with people, which is more than any of the other LV casinos are doing at the moment. Second, if you don't like their steakhouse, it's a free country to say so. But the venue is unique, and I guarantee you this. Most days, after you've been seated and your order's been taken, you've already been in the presence of people who know more about the casino business than you do and who have done things in life that you wouldn't have the balls to contemplate.

I'll go out on a limb and recommend the Happy Hour in the bar area behind the steakhouse. I like the meatballs. Can't beat a beer and half-price meatballs.

Oh, and technically, they have mid-week promos where if you earn x number of points, you get substantive discounts at some of the restaurants and free stuff at the coffee kiosk near the front.

Now I say this while still appreciating that their parking garage used to be the scariest in the city. Not sure how it is now. I do not intend to find out. I'll park at Main Street or in the GG valet.

Note to readers: Regarding Oscar's Steakhouse, which account mentions somewhat disdainfully. Bear in mind that account is the same guy who was bad-mouthing Vic and Anthony's. He's the James Bond of fine dining.

They're making an effort with people - as if you have anything to compare whatever they do. They pay less for hosts so they have more of them to sit around and yabber with you trying to make you feel important? Stop bullshitting like you know anything. Singer has you pegged. Your yearly LV trip where you're looking for discounted meatballs.

I have no idea what you have accomplished that has merit to me. I do know that when I gambled there, the limits I gambled were far beyond what anyone else on the whole fucking casino was gambling. So I have a right to expect certain things. And that thing is not having the tatted out white trash running their steakhouse steal my fucking jacket !!!!! Yes, this happened.

You on the other hand? You can't afford a $500 tax bill. Usually I wouldn't make fun of such a fact. Lots of people out there hurting. I bet twice that on a hand of bj. (not, wasnt APing. was a rare funtime gambling thus being at the low edge joint.) So that enough is an accomplishment when relating to you.

As far as what we've accomplished. I don't think I have ever bragged to you outside of pointing out your math score on the SAT is far from anything special. Whatever I have done that could be considered bragging is laughably miniscule compared to your bragging.

Brother, one big differnce between us is I have never in my life contemplated a 1/2 price meatball deal anywhere. Anywhere.

Open your eyes.

LOL

[accountinquestion]

They can't comp food anywhere in the casinon except fast food and that trashy "steakhouse". I have mixed feelings in the place. Single zero roulette and things if that nature makes it a place to gamble at.

Account, open your eyes (for once). First of all, the Plaza is making an effort with people, which is more than any of the other LV casinos are doing at the moment. Second, if you don't like their steakhouse, it's a free country to say so. But the venue is unique, and I guarantee you this. Most days, after you've been seated and your order's been taken, you've already been in the presence of people who know more about the casino business than you do and who have done things in life that you wouldn't have the balls to contemplate.

I'll go out on a limb and recommend the Happy Hour in the bar area behind the steakhouse. I like the meatballs. Can't beat a beer and half-price meatballs.

Oh, and technically, they have mid-week promos where if you earn x number of points, you get substantive discounts at some of the restaurants and free stuff at the coffee kiosk near the front.

Now I say this while still appreciating that their parking garage used to be the scariest in the city. Not sure how it is now. I do not intend to find out. I'll park at Main Street or in the GG valet.

Sometimes I go to the bathrooms of the state legislature when it is in session just so I can experience the almost erotic thrill of being close to men of such eminence.

A few times I have even passed out and slid onto the floor as the odors of their bodily discharges wafted over me, giving me a literal taste of the inner workings of power.

BUT Have you ever badmouthed Vic and Anthonys though?

Word has it I have even though I have no clue where the place even is.

[accountinquestion]

Sometimes I go to the bathrooms of the state legislature when it is in session just so I can experience the almost erotic thrill of being close to men of such eminence.

A few times I have even passed out and slid onto the floor as the odors of their bodily discharges wafted over me, giving me a literal taste of the inner workings of power.

Wow I thought it was just me.

Yeah, it's all well and good to go through life thumbing your nose at the world because of what you haven't done and, God knows, you're better and brighter than the folks who've done anything.

You guys are anonymous posters who don't appear to have any real gambling accomplishments, much less life accomplishments in general. Now I say "don't appear" because you're anonymous. A generation of snark that doesn't know how to mate compared to previous generations and two-thirds of whom are obese. And your SOP is to conduct most of your communication anonymously so you don't have to be framed and embarrassed by reality.

Sorry to generalize, folks. But without photos and life histories, which non-anonymity would provide, it's all just banal snarky bravado. A waste of time for them to type and a waste of time for anyone to read.

True fact. Some people have played poker unstaked big enough to have posted a blind that is the equivalent to the unpaid tax bill of others if not more.

Where are they? Who knows. But some people know how big of a clowny Redietz is.

No, not me.

Redietz - just shush yourself. You were going good taking on Kewl and Singer. We're all here for that show.

[jdog]

A few times I have even passed out and slid onto the floor as the odors of their bodily discharges wafted over me, giving me a literal taste of the inner workings of power.

Thank you, that gave me the best laugh I've had on VCT this week.


I will say this, the little pizza place at Plaza is not bad at all... and I can be pretty snobby when it comes to pizza. High RTP games in general, the place does have it's charms.

[mickeycrimm]

Comped nights at Plaza?? I got an offer recently then noticed they were tacking on a $40 a night resort fee. $40 downtown at that place... they must be hitting a crack pipe at those marketing meetings lol.

They can't comp food anywhere in the casinon except fast food and that trashy "steakhouse". I have mixed feelings in the place. Single zero roulette and things if that nature makes it a place to gamble at.

Account, open your eyes (for once). First of all, the Plaza is making an effort with people, which is more than any of the other LV casinos are doing at the moment. Second, if you don't like their steakhouse, it's a free country to say so. But the venue is unique, and I guarantee you this. Most days, after you've been seated and your order's been taken, you've already been in the presence of people who know more about the casino business than you do and who have done things in life that you wouldn't have the balls to contemplate.

Yeah, those Plaza execs are quite sharp. They got taught by the best. Like that Tax Day promotion 8 years ago. It filled the house with AP's. The AP's taught the execs a massively valuable lesson. The execs thought they had taken out all games that could be exploited. What a bunch of dumb motherfuckers.

The Plaza lost over a million dollars. That was the last we have seen of the Tax Day promotion. The humbled execs learned their lessson from the AP's.

Here's the thread at WOV leading up to, during and after the promotion. The Wizard was analyzing video poker for the promotion and there weren't that many machines available. Meanwhile, I was in Montana and wouldn't travel for a 1 day promotion but I was quietly telling people fuck video poker. To take a look at the video keno. After the promotion I was told that video keno played a role in the Plaza losing so much money.

Ditz, you and the execs can brag about your "accomplishments" all you want. AP's just want the money. Fuck all that puffing your chest out for the public.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/las-...ed/#post524910

PS Read Axel's posts on page 3 about meeting the casino manager during the promotion.

[jdog]

The execs thought they had taken out all games that could be exploited. What a bunch of dumb motherfuckers.

I put Plaza and Downtown Grand mgmt in the same category. They seem to just be flailing, endlessly struggling to figure out what works.

[mickeycrimm]

They can't comp food anywhere in the casinon except fast food and that trashy "steakhouse". I have mixed feelings in the place. Single zero roulette and things if that nature makes it a place to gamble at.

Account, open your eyes (for once). First of all, the Plaza is making an effort with people, which is more than any of the other LV casinos are doing at the moment. Second, if you don't like their steakhouse, it's a free country to say so. But the venue is unique, and I guarantee you this. Most days, after you've been seated and your order's been taken, you've already been in the presence of people who know more about the casino business than you do and who have done things in life that you wouldn't have the balls to contemplate.

Yeah, those Plaza execs are quite sharp. They got taught by the best. Like that Tax Day promotion 8 years ago. It filled the house with AP's. The AP's taught the execs a massively valuable lesson. The execs thought they had taken out all games that could be exploited. What a bunch of dumb motherfuckers.

The Plaza lost over a million dollars. That was the last we have seen of the Tax Day promotion. The humbled execs learned their lessson from the AP's.

Here's the thread at WOV leading up to, during and after the promotion. The Wizard was analyzing video poker for the promotion and there weren't that many machines available. Meanwhile, I was in Montana and wouldn't travel for a 1 day promotion but I was quietly telling people fuck video poker. To take a look at the video keno. After the promotion I was told that video keno played a role in the Plaza losing so much money.

Ditz, you and the execs can brag about your "accomplishments" all you want. AP's just want the money. Fuck all that puffing your chest out for the public.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/las-...ed/#post524910

PS Read Axel's posts on page 3 about meeting the casino manager during the promotion.

Here's something the "accomplished" casino execs are oblivious to.

On the Tax Day promotion you enter the casino. You will get an extra 28% on handpays ($1200 or higher). You look for video keno. You find a 20 card keno game with max $5 bet per line.

You look at the payscales and find the 2-spot pays 15 for 1. So a $4 bet would pay $60.

There are 20 cards so you load the same two numbers on all 20 cards. When the 2-spot hits it will pay $60 X 20 = $1200. You will get an extra 28% which means it pays $1536.

It's a 15% advantage. You will be making an $80 wager per game. Easy to run 1000 games per hour. That equates to a $1200 an hour play.

Here's the math. Chance of hitting a 2-spot.

Total 2-spot combinations
80X79/2X1 = 3160

Total 2-spot combinations
20X19/2X1 = 190

3160/190 = 16.63158 (chance of hitting a 2-spot)

The normal payoff is 15 for 1 so
15/16.63158 = 90.2%.

But with the extra 28% the 2-spot pays 19.2
15X .28 = 4.2
4.2 + 15 = 19.2

19.2/16.63158 = 115.4%

There was probably a gillion different advantage plays on the video keno that could have been designed at the Plaza. This is the type of shit that "accomplished" casino execs need "unaccomplished" slot AP's to teach them.

[kewlJ]

Very clever mickeycrimm. What was just described by mickey is an advantage player mentality. Viewing everything through the lens of advantage play. I only have a little bit of that in me. I wish I had more. Trying to pick it up.

[MDawg]

No one with any sense cottons to outed compulsively lying sociopaths, making comments on anything, at all.

So, 'git, like you said you would. The End.

[Half Smoke]

.
MLB o/u trend following system - almost 100 picks (pushes not considered) - from July 26 thru yesterday

58-40 - 59.6% winners - about 12.7% r.o.i.

the pick is when covers.com (click matchup and then trends) has both teams on the Game Total over trend - then the pick is over - or both on the Game Total Under trend and then the pick is under

covers is somewhat subjective in posting this trend - sometimes all games and sometimes just home or away
when I first saw this I didn't believe it would win because it doesn't consider the current pitchers which is so critical to the o/u
but I decided to track it anyway, and it did win and kept on winning
so, I can't explain why the non consideration of current pitchers didn't cause the picks to be nothing other than random
but does it matter what I can or cannot explain if it's a winner____?

there is some possibility that the good results were due to chance - but I don't think so

I will continue tracking until the end of the season and I will post those results

I make no claim to have made big bucks on this - I bet very seldom now - I just enjoy tracking trends with no handicapping such as this

very few of the trends I track are winners - most of them are worthless

I would like to see comments on this


https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/ma...ate=2024-08-12

.

[redietz]

I'm sure you've followed this, but since my brief betting run on MLB Overs for a few days earlier this season, which was catalogued here, the swing has been from a 30-something Unders bulge to a +30-something Overs bulge. In other words, it went from cumulative 55%-plus Unders to the current cumulative 51% Overs. I'm not sure there has been this kind of in-season swing (after significant games had been played) in my lifetime.

This figured to be the eventual outcome as the rules changes raison d'etre was to increase scoring while speeding up the game. Hard to tell how much of the swing has been due to (A) chance, (B) actual effects of the rules as written, or (C) umpires tweaking their behind-the-plate calls a tad because of the understood goals of the rule changes. The tweaking could, frankly, be conscious or unconscious, which in my opinion is a bit of a false dichotomy. If social pressure exists for certain behaviors, the behaviors tend to follow. Awareness is beside the point. The same debate takes place regarding NFL PI calls.

[Half Smoke]

.
pretty interesting article that shows how the MLB used tech to make pitchers better
the league wide batting average was .269 in 2006 as the leagues started using this
by 2011 the average had fallen to .255 and in 2022 it was .243
16.6% of at bats were strikeouts in 2006 - and 22.7% in 2023

.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/553...itch-tracking/

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[kewlJ]

I have been playing the overs since about a week before the all-star game, when I read an article about the ball traveling further, resulting in more homeruns when the temperature is 85 degrees or hotter. I had heard that angle before, but with the whole country baking in 90-100 degree temperatures at the time, decided to start playing the overs and see what happened.

Overs are well over 30 games up in that time. Most days it is fairly close, 8-6 games over, or 7-5 over, with some 1 or 2 loss days mixed in as well. But then you have days like last Thursday and again yesterday that were big over games, 9-1 and 10-3 respectfully. We just aren't seeing the reverse of that right now with 10-3 under games.

I felt like they would start adjusting the line totals up, but haven't noticed anything dramatic. There were even a couple games at Wrigley that the wind was blowing in and had total lines of 6 and 6 1/5. Both games went over, and even had a couple homeruns. I don't worry about the staring pitchers either right now. teams are in the bullpen by the 6th or 7 inning.

I really can't say that my reasoning of more homeruns and this more runs is the reason, but overs have been kicking ass. Also there have been a very key player on 2 different teams, Bobby Witt Jr (KC) and Vladdy Guerrero (Toronto) that have hit just a hair under .500 during this time. When players like that get going, their teams score runs.

[MDawg]

I got my iPhone set up with something like AI to auto respond to repetitive UNKewl lies now. It allows me to select from a series of possible responses.

Here goes....

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[redietz]

.
pretty interesting article that shows how the MLB used tech to make pitchers better
the league wide batting average was .269 in 2006 as the leagues started using this
by 2011 the average had fallen to .255 and in 2022 it was .243
16.6% of at bats were strikeouts in 2006 - and 22.7% in 2023

.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/553...itch-tracking/

.

You have to avoid assuming cause-and-effect when you witness correlation. Maybe tech made pitchers better, but then you have to assume tech could not make hitters better. Or, conversely, maybe the lack of African-American players, which has dropped off a cliff, has something to do with the lack of hitting.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...y/11657961002/


See, when a sub-culture or an ethnicity abandons a sport, it's almost impossible to properly gauge the effects.

[redietz]

Here's a Singer-esque addendum to the above information. If the plummeting percentage of black players in MLB didn't jump to the forefront of your mind when reading about plummeting batting averages and runs-per-game, despite the DH in both leagues, then you missed what I would consider a, if not the, key variable. If you missed this, or didn't immediately consider it, you should be asking yourself why you missed it.

Have you swallowed the whole DEI or no-racial-differences garbage? Because if that's why you missed it, you are handicapping yourself vis-a-vis handicapping. You are, to be blunt, flying partly blind.

[kewlJ]

I got my iPhone set up with something like AI to auto respond to repetitive UNKewl lies now. It allows me to select from a series of possible responses.

Here goes....

Mdawg just confirmed what we all already knew, that he is an obsessed internet troll. But really it is more than that. He admitted behavior meets the very definition of cyberstalking.

Cyberstalking is the use of the Internet or other electronic means to stalk or harass an individual, group, or organization. It may include false accusations, defamation, slander and libel.

Of course, it as all welcome here in the land of so called free and hate speech, even when it crosses over to illegal, potential criminal activity.

[smurgerburger]

Here's a Singer-esque addendum to the above information. If the plummeting percentage of black players in MLB didn't jump to the forefront of your mind when reading about plummeting batting averages and runs-per-game, despite the DH in both leagues, then you missed what I would consider a, if not the, key variable. If you missed this, or didn't immediately consider it, you should be asking yourself why you missed it.

Have you swallowed the whole DEI or no-racial-differences garbage? Because if that's why you missed it, you are handicapping yourself vis-a-vis handicapping. You are, to be blunt, flying partly blind.

You're supposed to actually win the argument before doing a victory dance.