Dan Druff's 2024-25 NFL picks

[Dan Druff]

Jacksonville -128 vs Chicago (-1.5 ok)
Jax/Chi under 44.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Tennessee vs Indy - Under 43 -110

[Dan Druff]

Lost both Jax picks. Jaguars were so bad in all ways.

One more:

Green Bay vs Arizona - Under 47 -105

[Dan Druff]

Cleveland vs Cincy - Under 41.5 -110
NY Giants vs Philly - Under 43 -110

[Dan Druff]

Rams +135 vs Minnesota

[Dan Druff]

Won the Rams pick above.

This week:

Tua is BACK

But is that a good thing? Many feel he should retire, for his own good. It is not clear how well he'll play. It's not clear if he will be rusty. It is not clear if the whole concussion thing will be a psychological barrier.

On the other side, we have the surprising Cardinals. They have NOT had an easy schedule! They've been up against the Lions, 49ers, Redskins, Chargers, Rams, Bills, and Packers. And somehow they're 3-4, including beating SF at home.

Maybe Tua will return to form and will lead Miami to a great second half of the season. But I don't think that's going to happen this game.


Arizona +175 at Miami


Also throw these on the pile:

Jacksonville +175 vs Green Bay
Seattle vs Buffalo - Under 45.5 -110
Houston vs Indy - Under 45.5 -110
Cleveland +9 -120 vs Baltimore

[Dan Druff]

4-1 last week, only losing Jax (barely).

Let's keep it going with NFL... 5-1 in past 6 for me, with two nice dog wins.

No dogs this week.

Atlanta -3 -110 vs Dallas
Tennessee vs New England - Under 38.5 -105
Cleveland vs Chargers - Under 42.5 -103

[Dan Druff]

3-0 last week.

Currently on 8-1 NFL heater

Let's keep it going

New Orleans +168 vs Atlanta
NY Giants -6.5 -110 vs Carolina (London, 6:30am PT)
Denver +7.5 -112 at Kansas City

[Dan Druff]

Won New Orleans and Denver, lost Giants last week.

This week:

Cleveland -119 at New Orleans (BOL -- up to -1.5 spread ok)
Las Vegas at Miami - Under 43.5 -105 (Bovada)

Maybe more later

[Dan Druff]

Results so far:

Week 1:
Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok) - L -1.00
Tennessee +174 at Chicago - L -1.00
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver - TIE
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams - W +0.93
Jets +158 at SF - L -1.00
TOTAL: 1-3-1 (-2.07)

Week 2:
Seattle -3 -110 at New England - TIE
Philadelphia vs Atlanta - Under 45.5 -105 - W +0.95
TOTAL: 1-0-1 (+0.95)

Week 3:
Cleveland vs Giants - Under 38.5 -110 - W +0.91
Carolina +215 at Vegas - W +2.15
TOTAL: 2-0 (+3.06)

Week 4:
Chicago -3 -108 vs Rams - W +0.93
Atlanta -2.5 -110 vs New Orleans - L -1.00
Pittsburgh vs Indy - Under 40.5 -110 - L -1.00
Miami -2.5 -115 vs Tennessee - L -1.00
Miami/Tenn - Under 38 -110 - L -1.00
TOTAL: 1-4 (-3.07)

Week 5:
Carolina +175 at Chicago - L -1.00
NY Jets +120 vs Minnesota (London) - L -1.00
Cincinnati +125 vs Baltimore - L -1.00
Seattle -7 -115 vs NY Giants - L -1.00
Jacksonvillle -3 -120 vs Indy - TIE
Total: 0-4-1 (-4.00)

Week 6:
Jacksonville -128 vs Chicago (-1.5 ok) - L -1.00
Jax/Chi under 44.5 -110 - L -1.00
Tennessee vs Indy - Under 43 -110 - W +0.91
Green Bay vs Arizona - Under 47 -105 - TIE
TOTAL: 1-2-1 (-1.09)

Week 7:
Cleveland vs Cincy - Under 41.5 -110 - W +0.91
NY Giants vs Philly - Under 43 -110 - W +0.91
TOTAL: 2-0 (+1.82)

Week 8:
Rams +135 vs Minnesota - W +1.35
Jacksonville +175 vs Green Bay - L -1.00
Seattle vs Buffalo - Under 45.5 -110 - W +0.91
Houston vs Indy - Under 45.5 -110 - W +0.91
Cleveland +9 -120 vs Baltimore - W +0.83
Total: 4-1 (+3.00)

Week 9:
Atlanta -3 -110 vs Dallas - W +0.91
Tennessee vs New England - Under 38.5 -105 - W +0.95
Cleveland vs Chargers - Under 42.5 -103 - W +0.97
Total: 3-0 (+2.83)

Week 10:
New Orleans +168 vs Atlanta - W +1.68
NY Giants -6.5 -110 vs Carolina - L -1.00
Denver +7.5 -112 at Kansas City - W +0.89
Total: 2-1 (+1.57)

Week 11:
Cleveland -119 at New Orleans - L -1.00
Las Vegas at Miami - Under 43.5 -105 - L -1.00
Total 0-2 (-2.00)

[Dan Druff]

I've been very streaky, going 2-10-2 from Weeks 4-6, but then 11-2 in weeks 7-9.

Unusually, I had 4 ties in the first 6 weeks!

Through it all, I'm up exactly 1 unit!

(Keep in mind, all bets are one unit.)

GRAND TOTAL: 17-17-4 (+1.00 unit)

[Half Smoke]

.

Dan - thank you very much for posting the grand totals here and in the NBA thread

this makes it much more interesting for me to follow - and I'm too lazy to do it myself

.

[monet]

You better pick the Lions -7.5 today or I'm gonna be pissed!

[Dan Druff]

You'll be pissed.

All the sharps in the world love Indy.

I'm not kidding. This is one of the biggest differences I've seen between public betting (Detroit) and sharp betting (Indy).

It's even jumped to +7 from +8.

The books really, really want you to go with the mighty Lions and just lay one TD.

I'm going half/half on this:

Indianapolis +292 vs Detroit (0.5 units)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (Bovada) (0.5 units)

[monet]

You'll be pissed.

All the sharps in the world love Indy.

I'm not kidding. This is one of the biggest differences I've seen between public betting (Detroit) and sharp betting (Indy).

It's even jumped to +7 from +8.

The books really, really want you to go with the mighty Lions and just lay one TD.

I'm going half/half on this:

Indianapolis +292 vs Detroit (0.5 units)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (Bovada) (0.5 units)

Doesn't matter.
My sheets on a two-team parlay with one winner already in.
I'm freerolling.

[Dan Druff]

Two totals:

Tampa Bay at NY Giants - Under 40 -110
Tennessee at Houston - Under 41 -105 (Bovada)

[Dan Druff]

Just one today:

Indianapolis at New England - Under 42 -110

Fairly cold day, 10 mph wind.

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday.

Tonight:

Cleveland at Denver - Under 41.5 -105

[redietz]

Lost yesterday.

Tonight:

Cleveland at Denver - Under 41.5 -105

Don't feel too bad. I needed Under 42 1/2 in the Race to the Super Bowl contest at Heritage. Won the first three totals this week by half a point each. This one made up for them.

Not sure the last time somebody in the NFL threw for 500 yards and lost...if ever.

[kewlJ]

Not sure the last time somebody in the NFL threw for 500 yards and lost...if ever.

Interesting question? I would have assumed most higher passing yard totals were losses, as team are trailing pass and teams winning try to run out the clock.

But internet search shows a mixed bag. One source says there have been 27, 500 yard games with teams losing 12. Another has the numbers at 25 games with 11 losses. Tonight's game won't be added to the mix, as Winston officially had 497 yards.

I had the over, but ONLY because Druff was so late with posting his pick. Joe Fortenbaugh (espn) had over as his best bet and I like to tag along with him, but I waited to see if Druff or Daly at PFA was going to go under, in which case I would have not wagered. 5 minutes before kickoff with no Druff or Daly pick, I went with Fortenbaugh's over. So I guess I owe credit to Druff for posting his picks 3 minutes before kickoff. I am not sure why he does that, but I am sure it is intentional.

I wouldn't want Winston as my QB, even as a back up. He is good when he is good, but the interceptions, just too much. 30 last year in 17 games. Come on. No team can overcome THAT. same with tonight. Good for 90% of the game. But 3 int's, 2 for TDs more than offsets that. It would have taken a 600 yard game to overcome those ints.