Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post

EITHER THEY HAVE +EV/BETTER THAN AVRAGE PICKS OR THEY DON'T.
This is true. I am not saying all or even any of these people I tag with are +EV. But neither am I just making my own picks. Take DRUFF for example, if you follow him, he wins 4 or 5 then seems to lose 4 or 5. Lots of streaks like that. At the end of the season he tends to be pretty close to .500 maybe a unit or 2 plus, maybe a unit or 2 negative. THAT is good enough for me with the bonuses.

I don't know how everyone (of those that I follow) makes their picks. Some are using computer data that based on many, many trials, (years) suggests slightly +EV or at the very least a significant reduction in the standard -4.5% EV. Again this is good enough for me with what I am doing right now. I am NOT trying to win money picking sports alone. It is about the bonuses and rollover. That is the +EV part.
You're preaching to the choir regarding the +EV part. I said that long before you got into any of this and I'm sure I said it multiple times. I also said if someone could just break even on Sports consistently they would absolutely make a fortune if they were put the time and effort into using Sports bonuses. And you don't even need to break even or cut the vig in order to make money using Sports bonuses if you put the time and effort into it.

But never mind all that, because that's not what we're talking about here. The fact that you are noticing Dandruff wins four or five and then seems to lose four or five in a row has me worried about you....you are noticing silly patterns after the fact and if you are attempting to jump in and out of people's hot and cold streaks you are doing the same things like people lI mentioned above. I.E. You are a pattern/system/ gambler's fallacy player.

I will go out on a limb here and say if you combine all the picks he's ever made.... there is no such constant pattern like that.


And if there is a pattern like that there's a problem, that problem might be him subconsciously changing his betting system where he's starting to take money-line bets on huge favorites that have a much better chance at winning multiple in a row.