Neither.
Neither.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
The only other option is someone told you.Originally Posted by MDawg
Maybe there’s a 4th option. You guess.
Would you claim there is a 5th option?
Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.
For a good laugh check out the walking (ok waddling) Fat Fuck Monet’s “Smart Money” thread. He’s on a 1-15 run with his Fuck Line bets.
Still riding his picks KJ?
Boz, I know you just want to bust on Monet and I guess me for tagging along with some of his picks. I tag along with a handful of people as well as make my own picks based on Longterm trends. All sports pickers, including the one I tag along with go through hot and cold cycles. When they are running bad, I tend to back off a bit until they start winning again.Originally Posted by The Boz
Additionally, all Monets picks aren't losing picks for me. First, I bet the games individually, not parlays. And some of the games he is playing puck line I am playing money line, if the money line is reasonable (-115, -120) and on a money line like -140, with a puck line +160, I am breaking up my bet and putting some on each. So I have won a few games monet has lost and close to pushed by betting both ML and PL on some. So his slump hasn't been quite as horrible for me. And despite his recent "slump" I am still a good amount a head on the games I have tagged along with him in total.
Like I said everyone goes through slumps. YOU turned me on to Daly over at PFA. Since I have been tagging with him, he is not doing great for me. A couple games over .500. I am sure I missed his really great run. They all run hot and cold. Add them all together with my picks and I am running at above, at or pretty close to .500, and that is all I need. remember I don't need to actually run over .500 to win like these guys just straight betting do.
So yeah, I am still keeping an eye on Monet's piks and I am doing fine, Boz.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
That's totally retarded, that's some MDawg, EvenBob, and all the other system player BS, and it reeks of some kind of Gamblers Fallacy.Originally Posted by kewlJBoz, I know you just want to bust on Monet and I guess me for tagging along with some of his picks. I tag along with a handful of people as well as make my own picks based on Longterm trends. All sports pickers, including the one I tag along with go through hot and cold cycles. When they are running bad, I tend to back off a bit until they start winning again.Originally Posted by The Boz
EITHER THEY HAVE +EV/BETTER THAN AVRAGE PICKS OR THEY DON'T.
How do you know when to back off? What's a losing streak and when/how do you know it's coming, IE when do you know they are on a losing streak? How do you know when they are on a hot-streak or a losing-streak, until after the fact? If they lose 2 in a row? 3 in a row? 4, 5,6 in a row? How do you know the next 20 in a row won't be all winners? This is crazy and almost hypocritical as to what you have been preaching against from your inception.
And Axelwolf, you have been pressing me for some of the exact numbers as far as rollover, and bonus that I have received. I have been reluctant to post them as I don't think it a great idea to do so. But I will risk it and share what I got this week.
I recently cashed out at one of my books as the cycle I started in September at the start of football had ended (meaning I hit the rollover amount and cashed out). The public offers on their site were crap, so I didn't rush to take a new offer. Then I got an email from my "host" offering me 200% bonus at 20 times rollover, which is there public offer. Since the bonus is in free play it is only worth half of what says, so 100%, not 200%. And 20 times rollover counting full bonus and initial deposit just is too much rollover.
So I answered telling him that. So he replied with how about 120% bonus with 5x rollover. I accepted. It is not hugely +EV for me, but if I go .500 on betting games, losing 4.5% juice, I will make about 10% of my original wager. But I can and have been doing a lot better than -4.5%. Half juice Fridays for football, betting dogs and away teams +points results in only a 1-2% loss rather than 4.5% according to 20 years worth of Shackleford data. Playing on the right side of some key numbers +/-7, +/- 3 in football further reduces. I have pace numbers I use in basketball. All told I can get that expected cost down to 1.5% (average longterm) and show a 44% return on my original investment. And occasionally, I might run above .500 for a cycle and show a really spectacular return on investment.
It is all about longetrm results and return, just as it is with all advantage play.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Of course for me, the big question remains, how much longer will I continue to receive offers I can work with? I don't know. I keep thinking it will end (at least with current books) and it hasn't so far, except with one book.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
This is true. I am not saying all or even any of these people I tag with are +EV. But neither am I just making my own picks. Take DRUFF for example, if you follow him, he wins 4 or 5 then seems to lose 4 or 5. Lots of streaks like that. At the end of the season he tends to be pretty close to .500 maybe a unit or 2 plus, maybe a unit or 2 negative. THAT is good enough for me with the bonuses.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I don't know how everyone (of those that I follow) makes their picks. Some are using computer data that based on many, many trials, (years) suggests slightly +EV or at the very least a significant reduction in the standard -4.5% EV. Again this is good enough for me with what I am doing right now. I am NOT trying to win money picking sports alone. It is about the bonuses and rollover. That is the +EV part.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Take baseball. I am sure everyone has seen that commercial, don't even know what product, but it is talking about analytics and it says "Plus it is 90degrees out today and the ball will travel 6.6 feet further." (not sure if that is a real analytics number or something made up for the commercial). BUT the ball does travel further in hotter temps. Anyone that watches baseball knows this. Fly balls that are routine fly outs in April and September/October are homeruns 5 rows deep in July and August in the same park.
So remember the severe heat wave across almost the whole U.S. in late June? Check the baseball scores. For about a week to 10 days most game were going over the total. 11 or 12 of 15 games almost every day. And while that heat wave broke, overs continued to be extremely profitable for about 8 weeks until the end of August, when parts of the U.S experienced cooler temps (for August). Totals were adjusted as this 8 weeks went on, but they still were a bargain (excluding Colorado home games that were overpriced), especially if you looked at every game individually. Check the temperatures at each stadium, and stay away from teams that don't hit or rely on home runs and you did quite well.
Even games that looked to be a pitchers duel by the lines with an over/under of 6.5, would end up 7-4 or some over number. I was slightly above water (.500) with baseball for the year, but really it was all about those 8 weeks of hitting overs. By definition that was +EV. Those are the things and plays you have to find within the season. it may not make the whole season and every play combined +EV, but it can significantly reduce the 4.5 -EV
Half Smokes first two week play of the NFL season is another.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Nervous chittering.
What would you do?
I have a very high-pressure pushy sports agent, he's the used car salesman type I feel dirty even talking to him sometimes. Anthony has a heavy East Coast accent.
He has got me some good deals and I've been paid, however, every single sports book he touts to me he acts like it's the best thing since sliced bread.
He has pre-rehearsed lines and forgets that he has already used them on me.
He is always throwing in bullshit stuff like, "Oh they know you everywhere Wolf your a VIP, they don't want to burn you because they know they'll get a bad reputation, and I dont want a bad reputation." "I won't tell them how good you are, I know you're winning everywhere, we will keep that our secret" "Don't mention you got limited at BigBet, I don't want them limiting you Im going to get you 5k limits" blah blah blah.
There has been a couple of sports books he's been really pushing me to deposit. I normally do a fair amount of research before I make such decisions. Unfortunately, these are not well-known sports books like Bovada, BOL, BetUS, Jazz, etc. They are more agent/bookie-type of places that use cold calling, word of mouth, and emails and allow people to play on credit. I have only a limited amount of experience dealing with bookies and agents from back in the day when you actually met up with them in person and handed them cash or they handed you cash.
Again Anthony keeps offering me a pretty generous deal: Deposit 3k for a 6.5k cash bonus(meaning I can use it on anything they offer, including the casino, (I'm not sure what that will contribute to the rollover) with no limitations on the types of bets I make(5k limit) with only an 8x roll.
I'm still a little fuzzy on just how these multi Sportsbook agents actually work. How the hell can he negotiate such a good deal for me I'm in the black at every place he has referred me to. What is he telling these different books to get them to agree to such generous terms? Is he bullshitting them as well?
Is this just a case where he assumes that the more places he has me deposit I eventually lose at one and he'll get his commission? Am I just going to get ripped off either way and lose my 3K?
I'm just highly skeptical about this one as the deal is just too generous and I hate getting burnt when the red flags are going off.
Mickeycrimm, I am not making this post to troll or debunk Mdawgs claims. That has been done. I am just not sure if you know of everything he has claimed over the years mickey. Not sure if you have read it on multiple forums.Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThe only other option is someone told you.Originally Posted by MDawg
Maybe there’s a 4th option. You guess.
Would you claim there is a 5th option?
Over the 5 years when questioned about how he wins at both baccarat and blackjack, Mdawg has thrown out: betting into hot streaks, counting cards, hole carding, loss rebates (despite few losses posted), to one of his more recent, rainman like total recall.
Some of these things could actually result in +EV advantage play, other veer strongly up the voodoo tree.
But here is the big problem with all of these ever changing claims or excuses. NONE of them, voodoo to legit advantage play techniques is going to result in the casinos throwing up their hands and allowing a player (playing rated no less, so they KNOW how he is doing) to win the amounts of money he claims over years now.
Even if he was doing something they just couldn't detect of figure out, like say a "total recall" type thing, casinos just dont say "well we don't know what he is doing so we will just allow him to clean us out". Come on. Everyone on this forum understands how casinos work and THAT isn't it.
What Mdawg seems to be indicating in this particular instance is some sort of hole carding or knowledge of the first card. Do you think casinos aren't aware of this kind of thing and see it every day? They aren't going to just say, "yeah that is fine and let him win 100k like he claimed the other day.
And if he is even suggesting some sort of collision with the dealer where he reveals the card or information, casinos and surveillance spend more time watching their own dealers for this kind of cheating than they do advantage players.
Mdawgs explanations and claims have been all over the place over the 5 years. Could he be doing something he just doesn't want to say? Sure. Could it be something the casinos have never seen before? Possibly, but unlikely. BUT here is the important part, that just doesn't mean they would allow him to keep playing and win like he claims. THAT really is where it all falls apart.
Doesn't expect a explanation that makes any sense. Maybe some trolling and questoes taken out of context that have nothing to do with anything.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I hope this is a general question to the forum and not to me.Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou are the experienced guy here, not me. I am not (before your post) even familiar with "sports agents" that I guess work with multiple books? Are they books that are co owned? Or are these "agents" like the old independent hosts at B & M casinos 20-30 years ago? Not really even familiar with that except watching that show Las Vegas with James Cann, back about the time I was just getting into card counting. And I don't even know how real the hosts like "Sam" (female) were portrayed.
Bottom line, I don't know much of what you are talking about. But I'll just say something you already know or should know. Any kind of host or agent is looking out for their interest, not yours.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
You're preaching to the choir regarding the +EV part. I said that long before you got into any of this and I'm sure I said it multiple times. I also said if someone could just break even on Sports consistently they would absolutely make a fortune if they were put the time and effort into using Sports bonuses. And you don't even need to break even or cut the vig in order to make money using Sports bonuses if you put the time and effort into it.Originally Posted by kewlJThis is true. I am not saying all or even any of these people I tag with are +EV. But neither am I just making my own picks. Take DRUFF for example, if you follow him, he wins 4 or 5 then seems to lose 4 or 5. Lots of streaks like that. At the end of the season he tends to be pretty close to .500 maybe a unit or 2 plus, maybe a unit or 2 negative. THAT is good enough for me with the bonuses.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I don't know how everyone (of those that I follow) makes their picks. Some are using computer data that based on many, many trials, (years) suggests slightly +EV or at the very least a significant reduction in the standard -4.5% EV. Again this is good enough for me with what I am doing right now. I am NOT trying to win money picking sports alone. It is about the bonuses and rollover. That is the +EV part.
But never mind all that, because that's not what we're talking about here. The fact that you are noticing Dandruff wins four or five and then seems to lose four or five in a row has me worried about you....you are noticing silly patterns after the fact and if you are attempting to jump in and out of people's hot and cold streaks you are doing the same things like people lI mentioned above. I.E. You are a pattern/system/ gambler's fallacy player.
I will go out on a limb here and say if you combine all the picks he's ever made.... there is no such constant pattern like that.
And if there is a pattern like that there's a problem, that problem might be him subconsciously changing his betting system where he's starting to take money-line bets on huge favorites that have a much better chance at winning multiple in a row.
The question/dilemma was offered to anybody who has anything to say on the matter.Originally Posted by kewlJI hope this is a general question to the forum and not to me.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Bottom line, I don't know much of what you are talking about. But I'll just say something you already know or should know. Any kind of host or agent is looking out for their interest, not yours.
As I said previously, I don't have a lot of experience with bookies and agents, especially not in the current environment, I've only dealt with a little bit of that in the past.
You would think Red would have much to on the subject.
I guess we're going to see how it goes, cuz I'm going to risk the $3,000. I'm just waiting on an email before I make my deposit. I asked him to put all the terms in writing and send it to me.
FYI, I was interested in following Dan's picks, I asked Dan to explain some logic behind his picks and why he thought he had +EV, and he said he was going to wait until the next season and see how he does. I don't think Dan has ever explained why or how he's making his decisions. I think Dan's a very smart person and can probably beat sports for a small %, but before I start following someone's picks I want some logic behind it so I can make my decision if I think it's a good bet or not.
BINGO!! This is exactly what I am concerned with or wondering about people I am not 100% sure with how they go about making their picks. If you are doing some kind of analysis, based on longterm past results, fine. Normal hot and cold streaks to be expected.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Someone like Druff at times seems to find some kind of trend with like over or under basketball or football, which I sometimes wonder if the conditions that lead to him betting in that pattern have changed before he stops betting that pattern. Like last basketball season he noticed a pattern where many NBA games were going over, just after the all-star break, so betting that for a few weeks, he did fantastic. So when he loses a few games, I have to wonder if that is just normal or has something changed that he hasn't seen yet? I don't know because I don't know exactly what he is doing. I am not going to panic, but I may take a break from tagging along in that circumstance and just keep an eye on his picks for a couple day.
Now Monet is a completely different animal. I also don't know exactly what he is doing although it is obvious he is looking for value with the puck line, figuring at worst an open net goal can put him where he needs to be if the better team doesn't already put him there with a 3 or 4 goal win. But he is a little all over the place, I am not sure he wouldn't result to some sort of "chasing" as he experiences normal losing. He seems to have some of that kind of animal in him. So I am not going to blindly follow. I'll take a break from following him and see how he runs. And if I miss a few winning picks doing so, that is fine too.
Now one of the ESPN guys I follow uses almost strictly computer analysis. He takes all emotion out of his picks. So I am not going to back off his picks should he lose 4 or 5 uin a row.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI've never had contact with an agent, but it sounds like the same thing as an "affiliate." Their function is to attract new customers in exchange for a kickback or profit participation. In the poker boom, the customers didn't have to be losers. Affiliates were commonly paid a percentage of rake generated.
Personally, I would need my own research before depositing at an offshore. I probably would have to reject some of them due to lack of available information. I've been proceeding cautiously with the offshores while focusing more on the Nevada legal apps. Edges are smaller, but I trust I'll get paid.
I forgot your details, but iirc you're relocating (northwest?) out of Nevada, so that puts you in a tougher spot for sports if your only options are offshore.
Finish what you
Correct. Without even knowing everything Druff is doing in regards to how he makes his picks, he obviously isn't just flipping a coin. He does some work (analysis). Sometimes he shares some of his thought process saying such and such a team has gone over that total 5 of their last 6 or such and such pitcher has pitched well 4 of his last 5 games, and sometime he doesn't share any reasoning. But whatever he is doing is almost assuredly better than I can do on my own.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
And all that despite looking Jewish.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Yeah it can be a little sketchy at times with the Agents. One thing I forgot to mention. These guys have access to your account. Oftentimes, they are the ones who normally set it up for you in the first place. I don't trust that I'm good enough or motivated to beat Sports consistently long-term without getting something extra, unfortunately, there's not too much extra going on in Nevada with online Sports so I'm pretty much stuck with offshore joints taking advantage of juicy offers no matter where I live.Originally Posted by Don PerignomOriginally Posted by AxelWolfI've never had contact with an agent, but it sounds like the same thing as an "affiliate." Their function is to attract new customers in exchange for a kickback or profit participation. In the poker boom, the customers didn't have to be losers. Affiliates were commonly paid a percentage of rake generated.
Personally, I would need my own research before depositing at an offshore. I probably would have to reject some of them due to lack of available information. I've been proceeding cautiously with the offshores while focusing more on the Nevada legal apps. Edges are smaller, but I trust I'll get paid.
I forgot your details, but iirc you're relocating (northwest?) out of Nevada, so that puts you in a tougher spot for sports if your only options are offshore.
Yes, I played some bigger denomination stuff including Sports, blackjack(other table games), video poker Etc for small edges of .5-2% but. I always find myself much more interested in and attracted to higher percentage plays, who doesn't love short-term results with big percentages where you're almost guaranteed to win?. Of course, it always comes down to the type of volume I can get in and how quickly. I have no issue playing something with a 1% edge if I know I can get out 1000+ plays per hour.
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