Dan Druff's 2024-25 NFL picks

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[Dan Druff]

Minnesota -6 -110 vs Atlanta
Miami -6 -115 vs NY Jets

[kewlJ]

My big game today is Carolina +13.5 against my Eagles. I rarely bet against the Birds but it is just too many points. Carolina has been playing better last month. I think the Eagles will win but Carolina will hang around. I could also see a backdoor cover with a late Carolina score.

So that said, it will probably be a blowout. Lol

[Dan Druff]

Good call above on the Panthers.



Hear me out -- I like the woeful Cowboys tonight.

- Jake Ferguson BACK

- Cowboys defense seems to have improved over the past 2 games

- Cowboys have, in general, looked a lot better the past 2 games

- Bengals have only beaten the Raiders, Browns, Panthers, and Giants -- all teams with 2-3 victories total. They have yet to beat any team except the very bottom of the barrel.

- Dallas is at home and you get dog money



Dallas +198 vs Cincinnati (+4.5 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Lost Dallas on an awful beat at the very end of the game.

Today:

Tennessee vs Cincinnati - Under 46.5 -110
Denver vs Indy - Under 43.5 -110

[redietz]

Lost Dallas on an awful beat at the very end of the game.

Today:

Tennessee vs Cincinnati - Under 46.5 -110
Denver vs Indy - Under 43.5 -110

Two things:

1) I teased that Titans/Bengals Under myself. Ouch and double ouch. Holy mother.
2) That awful Dallas beat you mentioned got me the exact score of the Monday Night game, which YouWager rewards by splitting 10K up among everyone who got it. One man's horrific beat is another man's lucky-as-hell financing of some steak dinners.

That was a terrible loss, by the way. Ridiculous.

[kewlJ]

How about this one. Not a terrible bad beat, but I will call it an annoying beat.

Washington/New Orleans over 44. Saints score with no time left to make the score 20-19. Kicking the extra point ties the game and I still have a reasonable chance for game to go over in Overtime. Going for 2 point conversion and the win and I lose whether they make it or not. Thet went for 2 points, failed and I lost.

In this era of decisions driven by analytics, in 2024 NFL teams are hitting on 2 point conversions at an astonishing low rate of 31%. So if you go for 2, you have a 31% change of winning, you kick the extra point and go to overtime each team has a roughly 50% chance of winning. So going for 2, bucks the analytics trend and by a pretty wide margin. Is that the right call?

And interestingly enough, last year 2023, NFL teams hit the 2 point conversation at a 55% clip. So last year going for 2, might actually have been the right decision.

[Dan Druff]

Lost both above, though the Denver one lost by 0.5 and was on pace to win the whole way.

Soon:

Las Vegas vs Atlanta - Over 44.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

San Francisco -2 at Miami
Arizona -5 -115 at Carolina

[Dan Druff]

Pittsburgh +125 vs KC (+2 ok)

[Dan Druff]

NY Giants +7.5 -115 vs Indianapolis
Dallas +295 at Philly (Hurts OUT, Pickett starting)
Dallas/Philly - Under 38 -110
Buffalo vs NY Jets - Under 45.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Philly -6 -110

Redskins have a ceiling

[AxelWolf]

How many units are you up or down for the season?

[EldritchGaze]

Do you have a season-long record tracked somewhere, or is it more of a casual posting of picks?