Smart Money

[redietz]

I'll repeat this for those who came in late.

There's a reason offshores provide parlay calculators for bettors.

Occasionally, a situation arises (like one offshore allows only parlays for its free bets) where you MUST bet parlays. Occasionally (odds boosts) a situation arises where parlays are marginally the correct thing to do.

But in general, the problems with parlays include: (1) you are usually paying a hidden penalty because you are not getting optimal odds (through time and location) for the wagers being made. So you are losing more juice than optimal or losing half a point from optimal, and those deficiencies can be calculated. They almost always override whatever "advantage" the parlay appears to present. (2) Betting parlays fosters laziness and imprecision. If you wager a parlay at one location as opposed to checking five or six for numbers, you are being lazy. Laziness kills.

If you've ever seen the Coast Casinos cashback/comps rate sheet, you can see how they boost your comps/cashback considerably for parlays, and boost it more as more teams are included in the parlays.

That simple observation should indicate with a banshee scream that parlays are an inferior play to betting straight.

Or as my old partner from Florida used to say (he bet five digits on boxing routinely), "Parlays are for poor people."

Having said all this, I'll repeat one of my favorite digs, namely that the Wizard's site was pushing parlay calculators as a good thing five years ago. All I can say to that is having easier ways to do the math of bad betting is not doing anyone (except the sports books) any favors.

[The Boz]

Trying to wise up an idiot is a waste of time RED as we both know. And let’s face it, him trying to walk to multiple books, even on Fremont isn’t worth the dangers to his ill health.

[theywontpayontuesday]

April Fools Day

Capitals Puck Line
Blues Puck Line
Knights Puck Line +155
Ducks Puck Line +130

Bonus Bet
Utah Puck Line +140

Nice 0-4 for the fat fuck, but I’m sure we will now hear he bet them straight and still won.

This fuck shows DAILY why having the bankroll to bet games straight and avoiding parlays is the way to go. But no different than Tasha, he’s reaching for the stars trying to change his life. The books smile when he waddles in daily.

Stfu micropenis

[kewlJ]

Boz, I don't know what the issue is with you and Monet and dont want to. That is your business.

Monet's apparently is into hockey and plays the puck line strategy. Not a bad strategy as you are betting the favored team, but need them to not win by a single goal. And even if it is a 1 goal game, there is the possibility of an empty net goal pushing it to 2.

I assume the data shows this isn't a long term winning strategy alone or everyone would be doing so.

And then Money is parlaying the teams. I am not a parlay guy. It is not a winning strategy. When I tag along with him, I play each game individually.

BUT, he seems to do well with this strategy, at least in spurts. Yeah, he has days that he goes 0-4. But then the next day he goes 4-0. And when he does it is a big payday. Again, I suspect the long-term data says this isn't a winning strategy. But he is doing fine (it seems) and those of us tagging along to get through rollover money are doing ok with it as well.

Can't we all just get a long? (as that nig that got beat in LA during Simpson trial said )

[mickeycrimm]

I'll repeat this for those who came in late.

There's a reason offshores provide parlay calculators for bettors.

Occasionally, a situation arises (like one offshore allows only parlays for its free bets) where you MUST bet parlays. Occasionally (odds boosts) a situation arises where parlays are marginally the correct thing to do.

But in general, the problems with parlays include: (1) you are usually paying a hidden penalty because you are not getting optimal odds (through time and location) for the wagers being made. So you are losing more juice than optimal or losing half a point from optimal, and those deficiencies can be calculated. They almost always override whatever "advantage" the parlay appears to present. (2) Betting parlays fosters laziness and imprecision. If you wager a parlay at one location as opposed to checking five or six for numbers, you are being lazy. Laziness kills.

If you've ever seen the Coast Casinos cashback/comps rate sheet, you can see how they boost your comps/cashback considerably for parlays, and boost it more as more teams are included in the parlays.

That simple observation should indicate with a banshee scream that parlays are an inferior play to betting straight.

Or as my old partner from Florida used to say (he bet five digits on boxing routinely), "Parlays are for poor people."

Having said all this, I'll repeat one of my favorite digs, namely that the Wizard's site was pushing parlay calculators as a good thing five years ago. All I can say to that is having easier ways to do the math of bad betting is not doing anyone (except the sports books) any favors.

Wasn't that parlay calculator made for the half point parlay cards? You know, where the parley cards had Wednesday's lines that had changed considerably by Sunday?

It's been awhile but I followed those threads about the half point cards. They were only involving the teams where the lines had moved considerably by Sunday. They were laying the favorites at a big discount on the points they were giving up....and getting extra points when taking the dogs.

The toughest problem they had was getting the books to accept their parlay cards.

[redietz]

I'll repeat this for those who came in late.

There's a reason offshores provide parlay calculators for bettors.

Occasionally, a situation arises (like one offshore allows only parlays for its free bets) where you MUST bet parlays. Occasionally (odds boosts) a situation arises where parlays are marginally the correct thing to do.

But in general, the problems with parlays include: (1) you are usually paying a hidden penalty because you are not getting optimal odds (through time and location) for the wagers being made. So you are losing more juice than optimal or losing half a point from optimal, and those deficiencies can be calculated. They almost always override whatever "advantage" the parlay appears to present. (2) Betting parlays fosters laziness and imprecision. If you wager a parlay at one location as opposed to checking five or six for numbers, you are being lazy. Laziness kills.

If you've ever seen the Coast Casinos cashback/comps rate sheet, you can see how they boost your comps/cashback considerably for parlays, and boost it more as more teams are included in the parlays.

That simple observation should indicate with a banshee scream that parlays are an inferior play to betting straight.

Or as my old partner from Florida used to say (he bet five digits on boxing routinely), "Parlays are for poor people."

Having said all this, I'll repeat one of my favorite digs, namely that the Wizard's site was pushing parlay calculators as a good thing five years ago. All I can say to that is having easier ways to do the math of bad betting is not doing anyone (except the sports books) any favors.

Wasn't that parlay calculator made for the half point parlay cards? You know, where the parley cards had Wednesday's lines that had changed considerably by Sunday?

It's been awhile but I followed those threads about the half point cards. They were only involving the teams where the lines had moved considerably by Sunday. They were laying the favorites at a big discount on the points they were giving up....and getting extra points when taking the dogs.

The toughest problem they had was getting the books to accept their parlay cards.

I wrote about this 30 years ago. And 10 years ago. And all points in between. So not exactly a revelation.

The half-point frozen-in-time lines started with the Stardust and Boyd.

As I mentioned a number of times, the old Stardust bookmaker did not like me and would go to windows to ensure I didn't bet more than $50 on a parlay card. I was using the frozen lines staggered in time, but not in some mega-serious way. There were cartels hitting all of the Boyd properties simultaneously so as to go after the cards to the best of their ability. I was not them. I was killing time because I was at the book two to three hours before kickoff at the Stardust and why not kill time by going after the frozen lines?

To be clear, this was no big secret "AP angle." Any sports bettor with half a brain was doing it. I get a kick out of the people who "share the secret" on friggin' Youtube decades after the heyday when everyone was doing it. There were probably a dozen or more people any given Saturday in the Stardust doing this stu

One of your weaknesses in your mentions of the Walters book is the fact that when you talk about various Walters numbers, the discussions of the NFL are based on particular (dated) data bases. The editor (I blame him) allows the author to skate by without addressing the elephant in the statistical room. All editing decisions are pretty much purposeful, so this wasn't an accident of fate.

The main conceit, I guess is the word, is the idea that -- given rules changes year-to-year and the huge differences from the college game to the NFL game -- that there was some kind of innate precision to a "parlay calculator" if you were trying to apply it to frozen lines. Better just to use heuristics and eyeball the games. If you're actually trying to apply a set formula to values of half-point-and-more variances, a static formula has immense drawbacks. You'd be chasing your tail to try to make adjustments on the fly year-to-year without any kind of data base that would be sufficient to draw any working conclusions. And that would also be a conceit -- that what you just saw for two or four or six weeks is deserved of adjustments.

There's a kind of false precision when you think that a "parlay calculator" would work better than your eyeballs and your brain. The calculator is basically a short cut holding your hand, giving you a false sense of security and control, as if you were flipping the same coins year to year.

Interestingly, this came up tangentially during my last lunch with Mr. Munchkin. We didn't discuss this directly, but I did mention a sportsbook that had a precise sliding scale for buying various half points in football. The weakness was that, because the NFL is the dominant betting league, the scale was set to reflect NFL recent historicity only. I don't blame them - why do extra work and all that, but it left some subtle weaknesses.

[mickeycrimm]

Walters' numbers were examples and are obviously dated.

Wasn't the parlay calculator just used to calculate what a winning ticket would pay? And to verify that the book is giving the correct payoff on winning tickets? The Wizard Of Odds site is not about teaching advantage gambling, though he does do a little of that. His main mission is to show the math behind all gambling games. Parlay cards happen to be a gambling game.

[mickeycrimm]

I just used the Wizard Of Odds' Sports Futures Calculator to see how much juice Betonline is getting on NFL futures. It's 17.27%, per their odds, on the AFC Conference winner:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...es-calculator/

[AxelWolf]

Walters' numbers were examples and are obviously dated.

Wasn't the parlay calculator just used to calculate what a winning ticket would pay? And to verify that the book is giving the correct payoff on winning tickets? The Wizard Of Odds site is not about teaching advantage gambling, though he does do a little of that. His main mission is to show the math behind all gambling games. Parlay cards happen to be a gambling game.

This was already explained to Red. I guess he just doesn't get it.

[monet]

Boz, I don't know what the issue is with you and Monet and dont want to. That is your business.

Monet's apparently is into hockey and plays the puck line strategy. Not a bad strategy as you are betting the favored team, but need them to not win by a single goal. And even if it is a 1 goal game, there is the possibility of an empty net goal pushing it to 2.

I assume the data shows this isn't a long term winning strategy alone or everyone would be doing so.

And then Money is parlaying the teams. I am not a parlay guy. It is not a winning strategy. When I tag along with him, I play each game individually.

BUT, he seems to do well with this strategy, at least in spurts. Yeah, he has days that he goes 0-4. But then the next day he goes 4-0. And when he does it is a big payday. Again, I suspect the long-term data says this isn't a winning strategy. But he is doing fine (it seems) and those of us tagging along to get through rollover money are doing ok with it as well.

Can't we all just get a long? (as that nig that got beat in LA during Simpson trial said )

I'm gonna say this one more time.
The book makes the most mistakes with the NHL Lines.
Anyone who knows hockey, knows this.
Prove me wrong Fuckers.
I'm over here 4 years now making winning picks and winning seasons.
All the data is posted over here.
You don't need to pick 50% winners to beat the NHL Puck Line.
I don't see anyone else in here making any hockey picks and winning.
Dan Druff may have made a few but doesn't really focus on it.

[monet]

Cocksuckers in here, pissing me off, so I'll make more free winning picks.
I know what you're doing.

[monet]

4/10/25

MLB
Brewers
Jays
Phillies

NHL
Avalanche
Coyotes
Knights
Kings

[The Boz]

Cocksuckers in here, pissing me off, so I'll make more free winning picks.
I know what you're doing.

Only cocksucker is you since even the massage ho’s can’t find your cock to suck beneath the fat rolls.

But the books love you so how about posting those tickets in advance pussy.

[The Boz]

4/10/25

MLB
Brewers
Jays
Phillies

NHL
Avalanche
Coyotes
Knights
Kings

0-3 in baseball

Avs lose 4-1
Coyotes wins 5-2
Knights win 2-1 but we know he bet the fuck line so LOSER
Kings win 6-1

2-2 in hockey

Add in the far fuck betting parlays and the books win AGAIN. But I’m sure we will hear he hit a $20k Royal or 2 this week so he’s “up”.

But hey, give him credit for putting his picks out there. Maybe I’ll do the same based on which litter box my cat pisses in. Same value to the reader.

[monet]

4/10/25

MLB
Brewers
Jays
Phillies

NHL
Avalanche
Coyotes
Knights
Kings

oof, 2-5 on the day.
The Nightmare Continues.
10 day losing streak on everything.
It may never end.
I'll be back on the streets in no time.
One Day, we will complete the cycle.

Just to make this clear.
When you bet the Puck Line or Run Line and you're at +120...
That's a Dog.
Not the Favorite.

5 Teamer
Tampa Puck Line
New Jersey Puck Line
Oilers Puck Line
Red Sox Run Line
Padres Run Line

29 to 1 or thereabout.

Bet 'Em how you like.

[The Boz]

Fat boy goes 2-3, shit happens when you have a bankroll and bet dogs. Nothing that would bother most players, but fuck boy is desperate so he’s looking for the 29-1 miracle to turn his life around like another loser here.

Oh well, he still has his day job.

[monet]

I guess I just lose forever.
I'll Fucking run this ship right into the ground.
I don't give Two Fucks.

NHL
Caps Money Line or Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Leafs Puck Line
Jets Puck Line
Stars Puck Line
Knights Puck Line

MLB
Giants Money Line
Brewers Money Line
Mets Run Line

[The Boz]

I guess I just lose forever.
I'll Fucking run this ship right into the ground.
I don't give Two Fucks.

NHL
Caps Money Line or Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Leafs Puck Line
Jets Puck Line
Stars Puck Line
Knights Puck Line

MLB
Giants Money Line
Brewers Money Line
Mets Run Line

Capitals down 6-0, parlay boy is done for the day already.

Fucking ass clown, hoping KJ has been fading the broke fat fuck.

[kewlJ]

The A's have played 7 home games in Sacramento. there have been 83 runs scored. That is 11.9 per game. And that included one game that was 2-1. Throw that game out and they are averaging over 13 runs a game.

A quick look at the dimensions of the park shows 325 down both the right and left fields lines. That is a little short of the MLB average of 333 (most parks between 330 and 336). I don't think that is the whole story though. Each day that I check whether the wind is usually blowing out.

Today wind is not blowing straight out to center, but is blowing out to right. It is only 5mph, but I am going to keep betting the overs until something changes or they adjust lines upwards. Today: 9 inning Over 9, 5 inning over 5

[The Boz]

I guess I just lose forever.
I'll Fucking run this ship right into the ground.
I don't give Two Fucks.

NHL
Caps Money Line or Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Leafs Puck Line
Jets Puck Line
Stars Puck Line
Knights Puck Line

MLB
Giants Money Line
Brewers Money Line
Mets Run Line

Can’t make it up!

0-3 Baseball straight up

Hockey

Caps LOSS
Canes Win
Leafs Fuck Line LOSS but win the game
Jets Fuck Line LOSS but win the game
Stars LOSS
Knights Win

Average bettor goes 4-2, desperate fat fuck goes 2-4 but really O-fer since he needs to parlays to turn his life around.

Thanks for the entertainment Jelly Donut!