Bob Dietz' Coming Appeararance On PokerFraudAlert Radio

[accountinquestion]

In your scenario, the bettor wins 55% of his wagers, then pays 10% commission on the overall win, which brings him to net break-even for his total wager.

Is that correct?

Is it impossible, or even unlikely, that Integrity's actual combination of win rate & commission rate will produce whatever return that's projected by the advisor?

There must be an infinite number of combinations that are +EV.

But you can eliminate any combination that won't or can't produce a consistent positive return, because his investors would not participate under those conditions.

The thing I find shocking is how this all seems novel to "APs," who have posted all these hundreds of posts as if they have any idea what I do or how I do it. What I'm reporting here is basic, fundamental, obvious stuff, but I guess not all experts are expert, if you know what I mean. This is not terribly far removed from basic non-gambling investment relationships.

Well, far be it for me to not complicate it further. When people have asked about payback scales, what I have recommended to balance aggressiveness with sanity, is a sliding scale. Any profits up to 15% are "taxed" at 15%. Any annual profits beyond that are tit for tat -- 16% profit pays 16%. A 20% profit pays 20%, up to a ceiling of 35%. The ceiling prevents gluttony on my part.

Now I'm sure to next hear about mixing and matching so somebody must wind up owing me something. Well, that's a great plan -- LOL -- unless (A) your major wagers occasionally bleed into public view (as with The Wise Guys Contest or various monitors' reports) or ta taaa (B) the investors actually know each other, in which case any shenanigans become impossible. Oh Geez, I guess some readers are sooooo disappointed. You know, I considered skipping this obvious fact, and letting people speculate shadiness, but I figured I'd save you guys some time and effort.

For the record, by the way, investors were able to opt out of various categories, the categories being arbitrage, middles shooting, futures, and standard wagering. Nobody, of course, opts out of arbitrage.

I can't believe mickey is acting as if his simple math is revelatory -- the lack of sport betting savvy is, frankly, unbelievable here. Some folks are doing analyses as if they have uncovered something. I mean, Good Golly Miss Molly, if you didn't understand all this from the jump, why are you even commenting on any of it? You don't see me doing Dietz commentary on blackjack players or "advantage slots" dudes. It's because I'm not an idiot.

My problem is that you said you shouldn't respond to the lying queer J, but you keep responding to he/him/her/she/they/them/it.
And why on Earth do you need to type out novels to justify what you do?
Just keep picking winners baby.
But for goodness sakes, stop scamming people out of money for sports picks.
I'm ok with the scam but stop acting so moral.
Have some integrity.

I want to see him explain how he decides when not to bet without utilizing the concept of EV.

This is such a completely key thing to know. I guess you could sort your hunches and just select the #1 hunch every time and that could very well work if you were good enough but why?

Unfortunately Red's bag of smoke grenades is infinite in depth. He's got all sorts of colors and durations. Some might even have a nerve gas that gives you the shits. We're going to see it all before we see him on a fucking podcast.

[coach belly]

I can see my dick

Do you consider that to be important?

[monet]

My problem is that you said you shouldn't respond to the lying queer J, but you keep responding to he/him/her/she/they/them/it.

You really are a piece of shit dude. I have been nothing but respectful to you, as we have occasionally discussed sports. And then you come at me with this shit. You can call me she/her, but I am a man. A gay man. And more of a man that you will ever be. And I can see my dick with the use and positioning of mirrors, you fat, disgusting, piece of shit.

I don't change.
I've been saying the same queer J jokes for over 8 years, on this site now.
Will continue to do so.
Sports Talk is Sports Talk.
I'm not your buddy, pal.

[kewlJ]

There is, of course, a way to objectively determine how successful a gambler is, and that is to examine their tax returns.

Not that Redietz, KJ or the hound should or would disclose them to a trusted, neutral party such as Dan for examination and then feedback to the forum: but they could.

Of course it will never happen and so questions will remain unanswered...not that the questions really matter.

Here is the jist of it MrV. what you call successful gamblers, and I call advantage players, don't need some 3rd party to monitor results. Results are reflected in our bank accounts. because that is what it is really about....making money.

If we share something monetarily, like what we made on a play or made for a year on a public forum, people can believe that or not. I always say, most reasonable people should be able to put it together with what knowledge the person has demonstrated they know, if they can explain what they do and what the advantage is ect. But no one is going to prove anything to strangers on an internet forum. For what? No more than you or any other non-Ap is going to prove what is in their bank account right now. Why would anyone. no one is on trial.

Now the big difference with the redietz claiming 3rd party verification, still proves nothing about what he or one of these other "tout" type actually won or lost or made for any period of time. All that verification is....is a tool that can enable them to gain new clients. The verification doesn't add 1 cent to their bank accounts. No extra money. To the contrary...they pay for that. So that should be a red flag. It is just so they can pull out a piece of paper when soliciting clients and say "see this, I finished 3rd in xxx last year or 2 years ago" (cherry-picking the good years).
.
Red wants to make it seem like the verification is some kind of righteous thing. He is verified by some 3rd party that you pay for <- But in reality it is only for the purpose of attracting new "marks" or clients.

This "touting" scam or hustle seems to be a big thing in the sports betting world. Not illegal. But you always have to ask yourself, if someone, anyone is able to pick sports at 56-57% or more to win overcoming the vig, why are they selling those picks. Why the hell aren't they just betting, winning, pocketing the money. over and over and over. License to print money.

And by the way...same think with every other freaking system or betting pattern that someone claims on these forums, or youtube. If someone really found the holy grail, something that really worked, they wouldn't be selling it. They would spend every minute and every dollar applying it.

Which BTW, how is that progression system going Rob? Rob who lives with his daughter.

[redietz]

There is, of course, a way to objectively determine how successful a gambler is, and that is to examine their tax returns.

Not that Redietz, KJ or the hound should or would disclose them to a trusted, neutral party such as Dan for examination and then feedback to the forum: but they could.

Of course it will never happen and so questions will remain unanswered...not that the questions really matter.

Here is the jist of it MrV. what you call successful gamblers, and I call advantage players, don't need some 3rd party to monitor results. Results are reflected in our bank accounts. because that is what it is really about....making money.

If we share something monetarily, like what we made on a play or made for a year on a public forum, people can believe that or not. I always say, most reasonable people should be able to put it together with what knowledge the person has demonstrated they know, if they can explain what they do and what the advantage is ect. But no one is going to prove anything to strangers on an internet forum. For what? No more than you or any other non-Ap is going to prove what is in their bank account right now. Why would anyone. no one is on trial.

Now the big difference with the redietz claiming 3rd party verification, still proves nothing about what he or one of these other "tout" type actually won or lost or made for any period of time. All that verification is....is a tool that can enable them to gain new clients. The verification doesn't add 1 cent to their bank accounts. No extra money. To the contrary...they pay for that. So that should be a red flag. It is just so they can pull out a piece of paper when soliciting clients and say "see this, I finished 3rd in xxx last year or 2 years ago" (cherry-picking the good years).
.
Red wants to make it seem like the verification is some kind of righteous thing. He is verified by some 3rd party that you pay for <- But in reality it is only for the purpose of attracting new "marks" or clients.

This "touting" scam or hustle seems to be a big thing in the sports betting world. Not illegal. But you always have to ask yourself, if someone, anyone is able to pick sports at 56-57% or more to win overcoming the vig, why are they selling those picks. Why the hell aren't they just betting, winning, pocketing the money. over and over and over. License to print money.

And by the way...same think with every other freaking system or betting pattern that someone claims on these forums, or youtube. If someone really found the holy grail, something that really worked, they wouldn't be selling it. They would spend every minute and every dollar applying it.


Which BTW, how is that progression system going Rob? Rob who lives with his daughter.

Again, by KewlJ(s) logic, or lack thereof, there should be no investment counselors or financial advisors in the world. That simple.

The "APs" hide in the dark and tell stories. Some stories, like mickey's, make some sense and have some inner consistency. Some, like the KewlJ(s), do not. Either way, very little can be corroborated, if any of it.

As opposed to handicappers in public view, with their records ATS on display for all to see, with multiple clients who know each other and can compare notes and blow the whistle on the handicapper at any time. You decide which stories are more likely to be fairy tales. Again, that simple.

[mcap]

Is English your second language with that last paragraph red?

The funny thing about this is red and Kewlj might both be in the 99th% percentile of self righteous motherfuckers.

[accountinquestion]

There is, of course, a way to objectively determine how successful a gambler is, and that is to examine their tax returns.

Not that Redietz, KJ or the hound should or would disclose them to a trusted, neutral party such as Dan for examination and then feedback to the forum: but they could.

Of course it will never happen and so questions will remain unanswered...not that the questions really matter.

Here is the jist of it MrV. what you call successful gamblers, and I call advantage players, don't need some 3rd party to monitor results. Results are reflected in our bank accounts. because that is what it is really about....making money.

If we share something monetarily, like what we made on a play or made for a year on a public forum, people can believe that or not. I always say, most reasonable people should be able to put it together with what knowledge the person has demonstrated they know, if they can explain what they do and what the advantage is ect. But no one is going to prove anything to strangers on an internet forum. For what? No more than you or any other non-Ap is going to prove what is in their bank account right now. Why would anyone. no one is on trial.

Now the big difference with the redietz claiming 3rd party verification, still proves nothing about what he or one of these other "tout" type actually won or lost or made for any period of time. All that verification is....is a tool that can enable them to gain new clients. The verification doesn't add 1 cent to their bank accounts. No extra money. To the contrary...they pay for that. So that should be a red flag. It is just so they can pull out a piece of paper when soliciting clients and say "see this, I finished 3rd in xxx last year or 2 years ago" (cherry-picking the good years).
.
Red wants to make it seem like the verification is some kind of righteous thing. He is verified by some 3rd party that you pay for <- But in reality it is only for the purpose of attracting new "marks" or clients.

This "touting" scam or hustle seems to be a big thing in the sports betting world. Not illegal. But you always have to ask yourself, if someone, anyone is able to pick sports at 56-57% or more to win overcoming the vig, why are they selling those picks. Why the hell aren't they just betting, winning, pocketing the money. over and over and over. License to print money.

And by the way...same think with every other freaking system or betting pattern that someone claims on these forums, or youtube. If someone really found the holy grail, something that really worked, they wouldn't be selling it. They would spend every minute and every dollar applying it.


Which BTW, how is that progression system going Rob? Rob who lives with his daughter.

Again, by KewlJ(s) logic, or lack thereof, there should be no investment counselors or financial advisors in the world. That simple.

The "APs" hide in the dark and tell stories. Some stories, like mickey's, make some sense and have some inner consistency. Some, like the KewlJ(s), do not. Either way, very little can be corroborated, if any of it.

As opposed to handicappers in public view, with their records ATS on display for all to see, with multiple clients who know each other and can compare notes and blow the whistle on the handicapper at any time. You decide which stories are more likely to be fairy tales. Again, that simple.

How do we know you have multiple clients who all know each other?

Anyway, if so then it is likely because they're all loling at it behind the scenes. Or something like "man I like this guy - he gives me a good sweat. I've won 3 out of the last 5 years and am only down $3k. It is worth it for the entertainment and I like the guy. He once met a mobster in Las Vegas."

Regardless - for all your talk of collaboration - having a record of being a winner of some frequency in basically what is an educated coin flip tournament contest from 20+ years ago being the only thing we can collaborate is a bit ... silly.

[kewlJ]

A couple things here:

I get a kick out of Red, repeatedly trying to compare this to a financial advisor/investor. That is funny as shit!! I think a better and closer comparison would be to a drug dealer. Dealer borrows money. Buys a shit load of drugs. Spends the next couple months re-selling drugs. And then returns the money borrowed and splits the profits with the "investor".

There is another funny part to this. These people...these "clients" are gamblers. They are degenerate types that like to bet on sports. So Red is asking them to turn their money over to him, while HE bets on the sports. So they sit there not knowing if they have action on a particular game or not, which is the whole thing they like to do...wager on sports.

Now maybe he can find someone that would do that, for the promise of a good return IF Dietz wins. But it is weird. Its like asking a guy that likes to smoke pot, well how about you give me the money you were going to spend on pot and watch me smoke it.

[MDawg]

Without your mouth, you can't make a living.

Anyone who reads even a bit of a sheet of text like that, the stuff KJ spews on a daily basis, has to have a screw loose.

UNKewlJ is a male prostitute who plays a lil blackjack as cover for his hustling is all.

[kewlJ]

The Arab pussy still hijacking threads and legitimate discussions like the common troll that he is.

[MDawg]

Please tell me that this entire routine of yours is a years-long troll job. At least that I could respect.

[coach belly]

they sit there not knowing if they have action on a particular game or not

How did you come up with this ridiculous scenario?

You're deranged.

[coach belly]

Dealer borrows money. Buys a shit load of drugs. Spends the next couple months re-selling drugs. And then returns the money borrowed and splits the profits with the "investor".

Yeah...I don't think that's how it works.

I'm pretty sure that such loans are expected to be repaid, with interest, whether the dealer profits from re-selling the drugs or not.

[Kim Lee]

Point Number One: The people who pick 57% winners in ...maybe 250-300 or thereabouts for basketball ... need a starting bankroll somewhere between 250K and 500K to make this work.

Point Number Two for all you "APs" out there: When a handicapper ... wins 53% of the time, depending on how many clients he has and what they are paying him, he has generated income as if he'd hit 55% or 58% or 60% or more. ... It's classic "AP" methodology.

I wanted to support Bob (redietz) as a long-time handicapper who tried to play it straight by having Integrity Sports monitored. I don't know how he paid his rent in Vegas, but he could have mixed betting with touting, shopping numbers and playing promotions in town, perhaps booking some bets on the side. He could also have had other sources of money.

I also wanted to warn that touting is a sleazy marketing business. Even if a tout starts with an edge, it inevitably deteriorates over time, and he is stuck selling worthless picks for the rest of his career. I studied monitored touts and found one guy who stopped his 60%+ winning NFL preseason service. He explained that he got coach's interviews from wire services. It was easy to handicap when you know one coach will sit his stars, while the other coach plans to let them play four quarters. When the internet made this information widely available, the tout lost his edge and stopped the service. Wow, that was honest!

But this money management nonsense is annoying. A 57% Kelly bettor should bet 10% of his bankroll at -110. Haralabos Voulgaris made millions betting NBA totals. There are plenty of losing gamblers who find time to handicap, gamble, and post on internet forums. If you could really hit 57%, then you would accumulate the bankroll. Many low-level poker and blackjack pros played part-time while they scrounged up session bankrolls and lost. But eventually they won and never looked back.

Also, "pay after you win" is not classic advantage play, it is classic scamdicapping. If the tout is winning at 53%, then his paying customers are losing. If you earn money and your "partners" lose, then you are not a professional bettor. The poker world had a lot of "professional" players who got publicity in the poker boom and then burned "investors" in staking deals. Bob's post displays no remorse or empathy for his losing customers and just brags about being clever to win so much with 53% picks. This also ignores those inevitable 47% seasons where customers lose a lot.

[coach belly]

Also, "pay after you win" is not classic advantage play, it is classic scamdicapping. If the tout is winning at 53%, then his paying customers are losing.

Is your assumption that the commissions are paid after each win?

Is that Integrity's business model?

My understanding is that the commissions are paid on the overall return, after the season concludes.

In that scenario, a losing season would require no commission to be paid.

And I'd expect that commission paid on a winning season, that turns a profit into a loss, wouldn't keep investors on board for another run, unless their overall return on investment from all previous seasons was positive.

Analogously, the S&P 500 has had individual losing years over the past 15, but no consecutive year-over-year period of any length that was negative. So folks remain invested in the index fund, just like the Oracle of Omaha advised.

[mickeycrimm]

If the investor pays 10% on the 55 winning bets his return is $110 on $110 in action.

In your scenario, the bettor wins 55% of his wagers, then pays 10% commission on the overall win, which brings him to net break-even for his total wager.

Is that correct?

Is it impossible, or even unlikely, that Integrity's actual combination of win rate & commission rate will produce whatever return that's projected by the advisor?

There must be an infinite number of combinations that are +EV.

But you can eliminate any combination that won't or can't produce a consistent positive return, because his investors would not participate under those conditions.

What I’m pointing out is that, in this configuration, the tout has to hit 55% for the investor to break even.

And when old investors wash out from losing….the continuous advertising brings in new investors. Rinse and repeat. And keep rinsing and repeating.

[coach belly]

What I’m pointing out is that, in this configuration, the tout has to hit 55% for the investor to break even.

And when old investors wash out from losing….the continuous advertising brings in new investors. Rinse and repeat. And keep rinsing and repeating.

Would Integrity Sports survive by offering investors a configuration whereby their profitable total wager results in break even, or a net loss, due to commissions paid to the advisor?

Surely his tenured group of MENSA investors would not continue to participate in that sort of arrangement...right?

[kewlJ]

Point Number One: The people who pick 57% winners in ...maybe 250-300 or thereabouts for basketball ... need a starting bankroll somewhere between 250K and 500K to make this work.

Point Number Two for all you "APs" out there: When a handicapper ... wins 53% of the time, depending on how many clients he has and what they are paying him, he has generated income as if he'd hit 55% or 58% or 60% or more. ... It's classic "AP" methodology.

I wanted to support Bob (redietz) as a long-time handicapper who tried to play it straight by having Integrity Sports monitored. I don't know how he paid his rent in Vegas, but he could have mixed betting with touting, shopping numbers and playing promotions in town, perhaps booking some bets on the side. He could also have had other sources of money.

I also wanted to warn that touting is a sleazy marketing business. Even if a tout starts with an edge, it inevitably deteriorates over time, and he is stuck selling worthless picks for the rest of his career. I studied monitored touts and found one guy who stopped his 60%+ winning NFL preseason service. He explained that he got coach's interviews from wire services. It was easy to handicap when you know one coach will sit his stars, while the other coach plans to let them play four quarters. When the internet made this information widely available, the tout lost his edge and stopped the service. Wow, that was honest!

But this money management nonsense is annoying. A 57% Kelly bettor should bet 10% of his bankroll at -110. Haralabos Voulgaris made millions betting NBA totals. There are plenty of losing gamblers who find time to handicap, gamble, and post on internet forums. If you could really hit 57%, then you would accumulate the bankroll. Many low-level poker and blackjack pros played part-time while they scrounged up session bankrolls and lost. But eventually they won and never looked back.

Also, "pay after you win" is not classic advantage play, it is classic scamdicapping. If the tout is winning at 53%, then his paying customers are losing. If you earn money and your "partners" lose, then you are not a professional bettor. The poker world had a lot of "professional" players who got publicity in the poker boom and then burned "investors" in staking deals. Bob's post displays no remorse or empathy for his losing customers and just brags about being clever to win so much with 53% picks. This also ignores those inevitable 47% seasons where customers lose a lot.

Red talked up Kim Lee a couple different times. But I don't think THIS post is what Red was looking to hear. "Touting is a sleazy business". "If a player could really hit 57%, he would accumulate a bankroll, bet Kelly and never look back" (betting without the tout service). A lot of the same thing mickeycrimm and myself have been saying. And the remarkable part is that I did not really have a conversation with Kim Lee about this or even suggest what my opinion was.

Next we will hear from Red is that Kim Lee doesn't know what he is talking about, despite that he just talked him up as an academic, which Red puts on a pedestal. I actually don't know much about that part of Kim Lee. I only know him as a savvy, gambler/AP who knows his shit and when it came to playing, thought and acted outside the box, leading to great success in Gambling/advantage play.

Thanks for your thoughts Kim Lee. Sorry, it involved a trip back to this cesspool of a forum.

[MDawg]

I don't mind kewlJ's stories about himself being challenged.

[Rob.Singer]

I don't mind kewlJ's stories about himself being challenged.

No one minds it. Where else we gonna get rapid-fire backtracking, Swiss cheese-like explanations, and the ever-present serial lying that accompany every studder-laden make-believe AP story?