Professional Sportsbetting

[jdaewoo]

Why isn't this retard out winning 80% of his tie bets?

[AxelWolf]

I will never end if you do it right. Find more places, find more accounts,

How to you find more "places" that you are likely not to have a problem with? Is there a legitimate website, not associated with or sponsored by online books that monitors and rates them? Or is it strictly based on experiences of people you know and network with? and some trial and error?

I do have the option of second and third accounts using friends and relatives. I just haven't wanted to do that YET, incase they developed an interest in doing some of what I am doing based on having watched me do it. But so far they have not.

I also tried that transfer thing once. Made offsetting bets at casinos, trying to get funds from one to the other and it backfired. Ended up with more money at the casino I didn't want. I guess you could keep trying until you hit it right.

I just do my own searching online. If the place isn't well known, I might only deposit 1k, then you can increase your value by making one big bet, lose it all, and now no more wagering requirements. You are cutting all wagering requirements in half when you do it that way. If you are a savvy sports bettor (someone like Tom G), you're not concerned about wagering requirements since all your bets are +EV and you would be using the account regardless of bonuses. I don't know how fast they will cut a guy like that off.


If you're using multiple accounts, I suggest a different internet provider and a different device. You could use VirtualBox but I find that to be slow and a pain in the ass to set up. VPN's you have to find out if it's ok to use a VPN at a particular book. I always get an okay from them before I use a VPN.

You can't keep attempting to hedge off because you might run into limits. Also, unless you're finding +EV or break-even situations when hedging, the vig will eat you up.

[kewlJ]

I will never end if you do it right. Find more places, find more accounts,

How to you find more "places" that you are likely not to have a problem with? Is there a legitimate website, not associated with or sponsored by online books that monitors and rates them? Or is it strictly based on experiences of people you know and network with? and some trial and error?

I do have the option of second and third accounts using friends and relatives. I just haven't wanted to do that YET, incase they developed an interest in doing some of what I am doing based on having watched me do it. But so far they have not.

I also tried that transfer thing once. Made offsetting bets at casinos, trying to get funds from one to the other and it backfired. Ended up with more money at the casino I didn't want. I guess you could keep trying until you hit it right.

I just do my own searching online. If the place isn't well known, I might only deposit 1k, then you can increase your value by making one big bet, lose it all, and now no more wagering requirements. You are cutting all wagering requirements in half when you do it that way. If you are a savvy sports bettor (someone like Tom G), you're not concerned about wagering requirements since all your bets are +EV and you would be using the account regardless of bonuses. I don't know how fast they will cut a guy like that off.


If you're using multiple accounts, I suggest a different internet provider and a different device. You could use VirtualBox but I find that to be slow and a pain in the ass to set up. VPN's you have to find out if it's ok to use a VPN at a particular book. I always get an okay from them before I use a VPN.

You can't keep attempting to hedge off because you might run into limits. Also, unless you're finding +EV or break-even situations when hedging, the vig will eat you up.

Thanks for the reply and info. If I am going to try to move money from one account to another at another book, I am going to try to find +wagers at both on different sides of the same game. There are enough sports, even European leagues and Asian leagues, that you should be able to locate a +105 on each side or +105 on one and even money on the other at least on occasion.

[AxelWolf]

If you are confident enough in Dan's MLB picks(that's his strongest sport?), to believe he has an advantage, just use those to grind the wagering requirements. You're making money on his picks and freerolling all the bonus money value. I would, but I have enough on my plate.

FYI, MLB may only contribute 50% to wagering requirements at some places.

Why isn't Dan freerolling percentages from investors or charging for his picks(He could call it Ethical Sports)? That's very un-Jewish, like, No?

[kewlJ]

If you are confident enough in Dan's MLB picks(that's his strongest sport?), to believe he has an advantage, just use those to grind the wagering requirements. You're making money on his picks and freerolling all the bonus money value. I would, but I have enough on my plate.

FYI, MLB may only contribute 50% to wagering requirements at some places.

Why isn't Dan freerolling percentages from investors or charging for his picks(He could call it Ethical Sports)? That's very un-Jewish, like, No?

I am confident in Dan's picks. Especially since he explained today, how he makes his picks and some of the things are things I look at anyway, weather/wind, line movements.

One thing that I don't put too much stock in is pitchers. Back in my day....in my youth, pitchers mattered much more than they do today. Today even good pitchers are only going 5 innings. occasionally 6. So half the game is against other pitchers. So if you are going to make any wager based on starting pitchers, you need to bet the 5 inning line, which Dan does a lot of.

My only problem with Dan's picks is that he often makes them very last minute, like 3 minutes before the game starts and I miss some of them. And then I find myself seeing if I can get something down on the in-game line, but often you have higher vig with that, in which case I wont bet it. The other night I actually missed his pick (Colorado/SF over7.5) and when I looked at the in-game line after the first inning it was 7 instead of 7.5, and +112 instead of -110, so I got a better line than if I had seen his pick on time. didn't matter as there were 12 runs scored.

As for Dan Druff and "Jewishness", I don't know anything about that. That is between you and him. lol. He says he doesn't think he looks Jewish. Not that there is anything wrong with that ---seinfeld quote.

Oh, and I haven't encountered a place only counting baseball as 50% toward rollover. That is lame.

[mickeycrimm]

10 min in

Krack is saying he was structuring stuffing 30k in the machines and saying you can't go over the 10k mark, that's the exact opposite of structuring. Whatever Krack is saying there is totally off. Then later, Krack said, in the future, they should not go over the 10k mark. <<< That's structuring

From everything I heard so far, the kid is not structuring, he is simply circumventing the limits. He should get paid, period.

You might want to take a look at this thread I started on Druff's other site. There was something going on with sports bettors crushing CZR with correlated parlays. I just skimmed over it for now. It starts with Sidewinder's posts starting at post #8:

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...-Sports-Bettor

[AxelWolf]

10 min in

Krack is saying he was structuring stuffing 30k in the machines and saying you can't go over the 10k mark, that's the exact opposite of structuring. Whatever Krack is saying there is totally off. Then later, Krack said, in the future, they should not go over the 10k mark. <<< That's structuring

From everything I heard so far, the kid is not structuring, he is simply circumventing the limits. He should get paid, period.

You might want to take a look at this thread I started on Druff's other site. There was something going on with sports bettors crushing CZR with correlated parlays. I just skimmed over it for now. It starts with Sidewinder's posts starting at post #8:

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...-Sports-Bettor

I wonder if he used Mikes parlay calculator

[cyberbabble]

Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger has gone full tout. He is giving out picks at WagerTalk, a large tout website.

He took his podcast, wisekracks, off of YouTube and it will be hosted by wagertalk. It's under the wagertalk tv tab.

He said "they made me an offer I couldn't refuse". Signing bonus or salary or something plus presumably a commission on his picks.

He still is keeping his weekly appearance on VSIN and Youtube.

[Half Smoke]

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prop pick for tonight's NBA game - Jalen Williams Under 20.5 points - 110 - he's been under that total in 4 of his last 5 playoff games

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[Half Smoke]

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above pick won - he got only 6 points

tonight - Jaylen Brown Under 40.5 points, rebounds and assists - 125

he's been Under that total in 4 of his last 5 playoff games - during the regular season he averaged about 30___________glta

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[Half Smoke]

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one more for tonight Luke Kornet Under 1.5 assists - 115_________________Celtics vs. Knicks

he's had only one assist in the last 5 games

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[Half Smoke]

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won above 2 picks from last night

how 'bout those Knicks - first time in Eastern Conference Finals in 25 years

today - Cason Wallace Over 3.5 rebounds and assists - 150___________________Nuggets vs. Thunder

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[Half Smoke]

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above pick won

today - Kyle Stowers - over 0.5 Total Bases - 130________________________Cubs vs. Marlins

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[The Boz]

Nice run!

[redietz]

Great, selective run, in case no one noticed.

My big questions, as someone who does not really follow the NBA, are (1) whether the inflated regular season offensive numbers would yield Under value across the board in the playoffs and (2) whether the whole "load management" redistribution of regular minutes during the regular season, would yield Under value for positions eight through ten on rosters, given that their regular season numbers are artificially inflated by filling in for players who sit. The two themes are somewhat at odds, as starters, one would think, will get boosted minutes in playoffs vis-a-vis everyone else.


LOL. Boz, I was typing as you posted. Same language. May be a geographic thing.

[Half Smoke]

Great, selective run, in case no one noticed.

My big questions, as someone who does not really follow the NBA, are (1) whether the inflated regular season offensive numbers would yield Under value across the board in the playoffs and (2) whether the whole "load management" redistribution of regular minutes during the regular season, would yield Under value for positions eight through ten on rosters, given that their regular season numbers are artificially inflated by filling in for players who sit. The two themes are somewhat at odds, as starters, one would think, will get boosted minutes in playoffs vis-a-vis everyone else.

thanks Boz and Red

some great questions - today covers.com gives props for only the top 8 players on each side - maybe some books give props on the scrubs who play a lot less - idk

for example Mike Conley is getting about the same minutes in the playoffs as in the regular season

covers.com has his o/u for points at 6.5 - and his last 5 games are 16,11,7,6 and 0 - and in the regular season he averaged 8.2 - so it doesn't look like there is a bias towards the under being a better bet here

for the Thunder Alex Caruso is getting more minutes in the playoffs and his o/u on points is 8.5 - his last 5 he's gotten 11,10,13,10, 7 but he only averaged 7 in the reg season

so, I don't think it's an across the board thing - you can definitely go nuts trying to look at all of these props - you have to look at each one individually, and there are tons of them

my own take is that the Under is generally, overall a better bet but not every time and not enough to overcome the vig

and also, individual props are easier to beat than betting on teams because it's easier to predict what one player will do than what a whole team will do - famous last words_______________

also, it seems obvious but I actually didn't realize it until recently - in the NBA the home team is generally much stronger than the away team - so for overs you definitely wanna consider the home team and for unders you definitely wanna consider the away team - is that factored into the lines_____?_______you would think so - but sometimes it seems like it is being ignored - with some of these props the lines don't even seem to make sense - it makes you wonder do they know something you don't - and you can't really know that

I used this linked site which highlights some props they think have value - it helps a lot - but still it can take quite a bit of time to find one that I like - they have pages for the MLB, and the NHL too - and I would guess for big college games



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https://www.bettingpros.com/nba/picks/prop-bets/


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[AxelWolf]

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above pick won

today - Kyle Stowers - over 0.5 Total Bases - 130________________________Cubs vs. Marlins

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Is that from hits? I'm having a hard time finding just total bases.

[redietz]

Great, selective run, in case no one noticed.

My big questions, as someone who does not really follow the NBA, are (1) whether the inflated regular season offensive numbers would yield Under value across the board in the playoffs and (2) whether the whole "load management" redistribution of regular minutes during the regular season, would yield Under value for positions eight through ten on rosters, given that their regular season numbers are artificially inflated by filling in for players who sit. The two themes are somewhat at odds, as starters, one would think, will get boosted minutes in playoffs vis-a-vis everyone else.

thanks Boz and Red

some great questions - today covers.com gives props for only the top 8 players on each side - maybe some books give props on the scrubs who play a lot less - idk

for example Mike Conley is getting about the same minutes in the playoffs as in the regular season

covers.com has his o/u for points at 6.5 - and his last 5 games are 16,11,7,6 and 0 - and in the regular season he averaged 8.2 - so it doesn't look like there is a bias towards the under being a better bet here

for the Thunder Alex Caruso is getting more minutes in the playoffs and his o/u on points is 8.5 - his last 5 he's gotten 11,10,13,10, 7 but he only averaged 7 in the reg season

so, I don't think it's an across the board thing - you can definitely go nuts trying to look at all of these props - you have to look at each one individually, and there are tons of them

my own take is that the Under is generally, overall a better bet but not every time and not enough to overcome the vig

and also, individual props are easier to beat than betting on teams because it's easier to predict what one player will do than what a whole team will do - famous last words_______________

I used this linked site which highlights some props they think have value - it helps a lot - but still it can take quite a bit of time to find one that I like - they have pages for the MLB, and the NHL too - and I would guess for big college games



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https://www.bettingpros.com/nba/picks/prop-bets/


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Volumes have been written about whether individual stats are easier to handicap versus team results. I have no idea for basketball. For football, I think team results yield more consistency because it's a cat-and-mouse game of weaknesses versus strengths and then it can all go to hell with two-minute drills or one-sided scores. The way basketball is structured these days -- almost no box-and-ones or 1-3-1 zones and so on, I think individual numbers stay more consistent than in the past. Plus the tight officiating kind of leans the games in that direction, too.

The only time I really, really tortured myself squinting at props was when I won the Race to the Super Bowl at Heritage and had to come up with 25K in wagers on the SB. I was diligent, day in and day out leading up to it, and it was brutal. The tendency, as one would expect, was that the majority of props were bet Over, so Under became a judgement and waiting game. Mainly, I tried to middle off-the-wall stuff. Interestingly, when Fezzik publicly "retired," he said he would restrict himself to small-sized prop bets going forward.

[Half Smoke]

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above pick won

today - Kyle Stowers - over 0.5 Total Bases - 130________________________Cubs vs. Marlins

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Is that from hits? I'm having a hard time finding just total bases.

see link - it shows bet365 and DraftKings offering this prop - DraftKings is unavailable right at this moment - they say they are changing the odds

Total Bases is different from hits but no difference if the line is 0.5 - if the line was 1.5 the over would win if the player had just one hit that was a double - but over on the hits at 1.5 would lose with just one hit which was a double


https://www.covers.com/sport/basebal...5/kyle-stowers

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[AxelWolf]

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above pick won

today - Kyle Stowers - over 0.5 Total Bases - 130________________________Cubs vs. Marlins

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Is that from hits? I'm having a hard time finding just total bases.

see link - it shows bet365 and DraftKings offering this prop - DraftKings is unavailable right at this moment - they say they are changing the odds

Total Bases is different from hits but no difference if the line is 0.5 - if the line was 1.5 the over would win if the player had just one hit that was a double - but over on the hits at 1.5 would lose with just one hit which was a double


https://www.covers.com/sport/basebal...5/kyle-stowers

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It comes up as total bases from hits. I don't bet or watch(never) much baseball, very little BB knowledge beyond baseball cards.