Why aren't long shots accurate?

[theywontpayontuesday]

I suppose as much as this, it doesn't make sense for the casino to cap -20,000s. I just don't understand why one bet can't be -21500 and another -19,800. If -130 odds mah go either way by the second, why can't long odds and super shorts? Is it really fair to bettors for the Athletics, the White Sox , the Rockies, the Pirates and the Nationals all to have +50,000 odds. I was kind of under the assumption the vig is the vig, these contradictions tell me it isn't actually true the house doesn't take a side in betting.

[kewlJ]

I suppose as much as this, it doesn't make sense for the casino to cap -20,000s. I just don't understand why one bet can't be -21500 and another -19,800. If -130 odds mah go either way by the second, why can't long odds and super shorts? Is it really fair to bettors for the Athletics, the White Sox , the Rockies, the Pirates and the Nationals all to have +50,000 odds. I was kind of under the assumption the vig is the vig, these contradictions tell me it isn't actually true the house doesn't take a side in betting.

Are you talking odds to win the World series at this point of the season? A quick google search says the biggest second half of the season (we are just about half way) comeback was the New York Yankees coming back from 14 down in mid July. All teams mentioned are further back than that. so we are talking about something that has Never happened. yeah, you would think books would take any wager amount on that.

Oh wait...there was the New York Knights in the movie The Natural. They were in last place, I don't know how many games back.

[Don Perignom]

Is it really fair to bettors for the Athletics, the White Sox , the Rockies, the Pirates and the Nationals all to have +50,000 odds.

I probably don't understand the question, but I assume the books have logistical reasons for not wanting to offer extreme lottery-ticket odds.

The Rockies in particular appear extraordinarily unlikely as they would need to nearly win out just to reach postseason. Rather than ripping off customers, some books have taken the Rockies off the board: Atlantis, Circa, and Superbook NV.

Worst I've found is Bet Rivers, which has Rockies +20,000, with the others you mentioned at +16,000.

I don't know how much action they'll take, but I found select +500,000 odds at Superbook NV:



And Stations NV:



Even at those pays, the bets are probably still mathematically horrendous.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I just mean clearly the Chicago White Sox and the Colorado Rockies should not have the same odds identically. If the White Sox are getting +50,0000, the Rockies should be +50,001 or more. Therefore these odds are not very precise as they should be. The Rockies should be +100,000 or more. Is no action against the reason, they're not balancing their bets besides the bets on other teams because only one team can actually win the World Series.

[Don Perignom]

If the White Sox are getting +50,0000, the Rockies should be +50,001 or more.

Life is an IQ test.

[DGenBen]

Law of diminishing returns I’d imagine.

Why put a ton of effort & expense into pricing something that is very unlikely to hit?

Especially when they can ballpark it & focus on bets that have a lot of volume

[theywontpayontuesday]

Law of diminishing returns I’d imagine.

Why put a ton of effort & expense into pricing something that is very unlikely to hit?

Especially when they can ballpark it & focus on bets that have a lot of volume

This means the books are not just making money on the vig though.

[DGenBen]

Law of diminishing returns I’d imagine.

Why put a ton of effort & expense into pricing something that is very unlikely to hit?

Especially when they can ballpark it & focus on bets that have a lot of volume

This means the books are not just making money on the vig though.

Granted I’m not the expert like Redeitz but a book doesn’t have to make all its money from the Vig.

If suckers want to bet big long shots at bad odds they can make money that way too.

I think the books try to avoid taking a side on high volume bets, not necessarily on a long shot sucker bet.