LV tourism is down - dealers being laid off

[theywontpayontuesday]

I have noticed completely terrible casino attendance where I have been. This can happen from time to time ans things later rebound though.


Most slot APs I know do not ever talk about EV, only good or not good and the experienced ones know how to choose which plays they take based on total EV without it being known exactly. There are a ton of people who make way more than those more precise. Obviously for the reason the knowledge isn't special or exclusive to them, we're then all equal and those with better health and other skills make the most.

[kewlJ]

I have noticed completely terrible casino attendance where I have been. This can happen from time to time ans things later rebound though.

The economy definitely effects casinos business. When people have to tighten up a little bit, that kind of spending is the first to go. Now I don't follow that closely as to how the economy is doing for most people. And I don't want to turn this into a political /Trump discussion. BUT all the talk of cuts in regards to jobs (federal) and possible benefits didn't help. Elon Musk running around with a chainsaw as he laid people off didn't help. People tend to go into saving mode, until they see what happens. In talking to several seniors at the 55+ community my mom is in, some of them really thought and maybe still do, that Musk would be coming after their social security.

And that really puts them in save mode. Probably will lighten up now that we are 6 months in and their SS is till coming and Musk is gone and Trump seems focused on other issues like rounding up and kicking out all the Latinos and getting involved in Wars and such.

By the way, summer time in Vegas has traditionally been heavy in overseas tourists. All year is really, but summer a lot of people from Europe. I think some might be afraid to come to America right now.

[kewlJ]

Most slot APs I know do not ever talk about EV, only good or not good and the experienced ones know how to choose which plays they take based on total EV without it being known exactly. There are a ton of people who make way more than those more precise.

You don't have to know exactly, to the penny, but you should have a pretty close approximation what you are doing is worth, per number of trials or time.

Last year when my brother discovered the....I guess glitch...in the blackjack electronic machines, I wasn't sure exactly what it was worth. Being able to take a second action after you initially hit, isn't a standard rule anywhere (that I know of), so there was no looking it up in some set of unusual rules. I tried to figure out what the advantage would be myself and came up with a number, but I didn't trust that I wasn't missing something, so I asked around to a couple people like Wizard.

Funny thing was I got a couple very different numbers from two guys that I consider math experts. One was very close to what I had figured and one significantly higher. because time was an issue, we just started playing and 10 weeks later when we were finished actual results came in just about midway between the two numbers I was given. So who knows. At a couple hundred hands an hour we got in enough trials that variance shouldn't have been too big an issue. If it was something that was going to last a long time, I would have wanted a much more exact number as to what it was worth.

I am a little surprised to hear you say, machine players don't have such an exact number in regards to EV. That is not really my lane (at least yet), so I will take your word for it. But Blackjack APs know what their EV is per session.

[MisterV]

AI Overview
Yes, international travel to Las Vegas has shown recent signs of slowing down
. While overall visitor numbers in 2024 were up compared to the previous year, with a 2.1% increase, the first quarter of 2025 has seen a drop in visitor volume.
Here's why:
1. Economic factors:

Increased travel costs and inflation: Rising travel expenses, including airfare and fuel prices, are making trips to Las Vegas less affordable for many international travelers.
Stronger US dollar: A strong US dollar makes travel to the United States more expensive for visitors from countries with weaker currencies.
Trade tariffs and changing government policies: Some international travelers are hesitant to visit the US due to concerns about evolving federal policies, including trade tariffs and immigration enforcement.
Economic slowdown: Concerns about a potential economic slowdown are impacting consumer confidence and discretionary spending, leading some travelers to postpone or cancel travel plans.

2. Geopolitical factors:

International tensions: Geopolitical tensions and political rhetoric can create uncertainty and impact travel sentiment, particularly from countries like Canada and Mexico, which are major sources of international visitors to Las Vegas.
Concerns about US entry policies: Some international travelers are worried about potential difficulties or negative experiences at US customs and immigration, which could be deterring them from visiting.

3. Competition:

Rise of alternative destinations: Some travelers, particularly younger generations, are seeking destinations that offer better value or different experiences than Las Vegas, leading them to consider alternative locations.
Perceived decline in value: Rising costs for amenities like resort fees, parking, and dining are leading some travelers to feel that Las Vegas no longer offers the same value as it once did.

4. Shift in travel preferences:

Preference for non-gaming activities: Younger visitors are increasingly interested in non-gaming experiences, and Las Vegas may need to further adapt to cater to this growing segment of travelers.

In conclusion, while Las Vegas's tourism numbers remained strong in 2024, the recent dip in international travel is concerning. The city is facing challenges from economic factors, geopolitical tensions, and changing visitor preferences. The Las Vegas tourism industry needs to monitor these trends and adapt its strategies to attract international visitors in the future.

[mickeycrimm]

I have noticed completely terrible casino attendance where I have been. This can happen from time to time ans things later rebound though.


Most slot APs I know do not ever talk about EV, only good or not good and the experienced ones know how to choose which plays they take based on total EV without it being known exactly. There are a ton of people who make way more than those more precise. Obviously for the reason the knowledge isn't special or exclusive to them, we're then all equal and those with better health and other skills make the most.

There are people more precise that make way more than those that aren’t. “More precise” and “make more” are irrelevant to each other. I had one such person try to push that on me, I’m more precise but he is more effective. Thats what he told me. Of course the reason he made more than me was he put in twice the hours I did. But then his “effectiveness” dried up when all the old plays I taught him went by the wayside and I wouldn’t teach him the new plays. He eventually disappeared.

PS i dont really try to be that precise. I use ballpark figures on daily expectation. Thats all I need.

[kewlJ]

PS i dont really try to be that precise. I use ballpark figures on daily expectation. Thats all I need.

Of course! With blackjack there is different Ev for each hand depending on the count. So if you play a 50 round session to be exact, you would need to figure each hand EV (according to count/advantage) and add them all together. Nobody could do something like that. So we run sims and use those numbers which are an average of each count per 100 rounds.

So if someone wanted to be a stickler (like dietz) he could say it is an estimation, which it is. But once you get up to 20k + rounds, it is pretty precise.

What is really irritating about Dietz is that "opinion" comment. That is ridiculous and makes zero sense. I probably shouldn't let a comment like that bother me as much as it does. I will have to work on that.

[kewlJ]

But Blackjack APs know what their EV is per session.

I guess I should amend this comment. I was specifically thinking of the many players I have networked with over the years and that share some of how they do things on forums.

But there is a blackjack player, professional player for 10 years now very dear to me, that does NOT track his EV or does so very loosely. That would be my own brother. If I ask him how he is doing for the year, he knows of course, but if I say how is that compared to expectation, he can't give me a number.

he doesn't seem to think it nearly as important as I do. He plays and what he wins, he win. That thinking is kind of foreign to me. And particularly when you have an off year. he has had only 1 in 10 years a couple years ago. He knew he was having a bad year, but just had no idea what it was compared to expectation.

Just seems weird to me. Gambling is math. Advantage play is math. If you dismiss the math or don't care about the math, then you are a lot closer to just gambling than advantage play it seems to me.

[MDawg]

Do you know why he posts so much ? Because at least two people here know exactly who he is and how many he turns a month to get by. Anxiety lol rip

[MDawg]

it probably effects the higher end places

Just consider his writing style, his misspellings, and that he can't tell the difference between words like effect and affect, obviously his line about no education is the truth. He also would get all humble chumble mumble when RobSinger would call him on being uneducated - clearly struck a nerve of truth.

[accountinquestion]

I have noticed completely terrible casino attendance where I have been. This can happen from time to time ans things later rebound though.


Most slot APs I know do not ever talk about EV, only good or not good and the experienced ones know how to choose which plays they take based on total EV without it being known exactly. There are a ton of people who make way more than those more precise. Obviously for the reason the knowledge isn't special or exclusive to them, we're then all equal and those with better health and other skills make the most.

There are people more precise that make way more than those that aren’t. “More precise” and “make more” are irrelevant to each other. I had one such person try to push that on me, I’m more precise but he is more effective. Thats what he told me. Of course the reason he made more than me was he put in twice the hours I did. But then his “effectiveness” dried up when all the old plays I taught him went by the wayside and I wouldn’t teach him the new plays. He eventually disappeared.

PS i dont really try to be that precise. I use ballpark figures on daily expectation. Thats all I need.

Precise keeps you above 0 EV plays bit volume can be just as or more important. Precision is more important with a small role imo

[mickeycrimm]

I have noticed completely terrible casino attendance where I have been. This can happen from time to time ans things later rebound though.


Most slot APs I know do not ever talk about EV, only good or not good and the experienced ones know how to choose which plays they take based on total EV without it being known exactly. There are a ton of people who make way more than those more precise. Obviously for the reason the knowledge isn't special or exclusive to them, we're then all equal and those with better health and other skills make the most.

There are people more precise that make way more than those that aren’t. “More precise” and “make more” are irrelevant to each other. I had one such person try to push that on me, I’m more precise but he is more effective. Thats what he told me. Of course the reason he made more than me was he put in twice the hours I did. But then his “effectiveness” dried up when all the old plays I taught him went by the wayside and I wouldn’t teach him the new plays. He eventually disappeared.

PS i dont really try to be that precise. I use ballpark figures on daily expectation. Thats all I need.

Precise keeps you above 0 EV plays bit volume can be just as or more important. Precision is more important with a small role imo

[mickeycrimm]

Precise doesnt mean one is playing tighter. To me playing precise means taking more plays but at a smaller edge.

If you get 3 times the plays at a 5% edge than with a 10% edge then you are making more money on the 5% plays but with more fluctuation. And its n@tural that you will get many more of the smaller edge plays. Most AP’s play to tight i think because they dont want to have a losing day. I have an old friend that plays so tight he dont make much money.

[accountinquestion]

Precise doesnt mean one is playing tighter. To me playing precise means taking more plays but at a smaller edge.

If you get 3 times the plays at a 5% edge than with a 10% edge then you are making more money on the 5% plays but with more fluctuation. And its n@tural that you will get many more of the smaller edge plays. Most AP’s play to tight i think because they dont want to have a losing day. I have an old friend that plays so tight he dont make much money.

It seems like we're basically agreeing. You've known countless guys who take anything that looks like it must be close to +EV. That's low precision and they lose to much because of it. Precise just means they're not playing as many -EV plays but they may also be taking more time figuring out whether to play which could cut into volume? It all depends.

So I wonder if Red has a problem with us using EV since it is typically more of an opinion than that of a sharp bettor. Outside of MHBs and such.

[MisterV]

Things seem to be getting even worse on the strip.

This guy, a Vegas local named Jacob, has a good YouTube channel.

[DGenBen]

Things seem to be getting even worse on the strip.

This guy, a Vegas local named Jacob, has a good YouTube channel.

We should all band together and do a Vegas Casino Talk meetup there to help Las Vegas out.

[MisterV]

We should all band together and do a Vegas Casino Talk meetup there to help Las Vegas out.

But...but...what about anonymity?

J/K...I went to a couple of those back when the Wizard had them: I enjoyed it then and would likely participate in one put on by VCT.

Except...there's not many active posters so really, what's the point if only a few show up?

Good idea though.

[DGenBen]

We should all band together and do a Vegas Casino Talk meetup there to help Las Vegas out.

But...but...what about anonymity?

J/K...I went to a couple of those back when the Wizard had them: I enjoyed it then and would likely participate in one put on by VCT.

Except...there's not many active posters so really, what's the point if only a few show up?

Good idea though.

When MDawg and Kewlj meet each other in person they’ll probably find out they really like each other and become close friends

[accountinquestion]

We should all band together and do a Vegas Casino Talk meetup there to help Las Vegas out.

But...but...what about anonymity?

J/K...I went to a couple of those back when the Wizard had them: I enjoyed it then and would likely participate in one put on by VCT.

Except...there's not many active posters so really, what's the point if only a few show up?

Good idea though.

When MDawg and Kewlj meet each other in person they’ll probably find out they really like each other and become close friends

lol.

And Rob Singer comes out from the closet when he meets Kewl.

[AxelWolf]

But Blackjack APs know what their EV is per session.

I guess I should amend this comment. I was specifically thinking of the many players I have networked with over the years and that share some of how they do things on forums.

But there is a blackjack player, professional player for 10 years now very dear to me, that does NOT track his EV or does so very loosely. That would be my own brother. If I ask him how he is doing for the year, he knows of course, but if I say how is that compared to expectation, he can't give me a number.

he doesn't seem to think it nearly as important as I do. He plays and what he wins, he win. That thinking is kind of foreign to me. And particularly when you have an off year. he has had only 1 in 10 years a couple years ago. He knew he was having a bad year, but just had no idea what it was compared to expectation.

Just seems weird to me. Gambling is math. Advantage play is math. If you dismiss the math or don't care about the math, then you are a lot closer to just gambling than advantage play it seems to me.

If you're playing solo, keeping track/doing your accounting has nothing to do with your advantage, or the math of the game. Knowing how you're doing compared to expectation is meaningless, unless you think you're being cheated, playing wrong/bad, or you want to use Kelly. If you're not worried about those 4 things, then keeping track won't/can't change anything; it is going to be what it's going to be.

Assuming one is making enough to live and overcome their spending...
If you have an advantage, and you have the bankroll, and you are playing correctly, then evrything else could be considered pointless.

Think about it. Let's say you both play the exact same way, exact same games, exact same places, exact same limits and spreads, etc.

You keep track, and he doesn't. Do you make more than he does? Are you any better off than he is?

[kewlJ]

If you're playing solo, keeping track/doing your accounting has nothing to do with your advantage, or the math of the game. Knowing how you're doing compared to expectation is meaningless, unless you think you're being cheated,

Well looking to see if you are being cheated is part of it. But only a small part. Spreading your play around 30 casinos, plus some out of town play, you aren't going to come close to having a large enough sample size at any one place to definitively prove anything about cheating. Not in any single year. Maybe over a number of years.


But really the reason I keep detailed record is because I want to know just how far below or above expectation I am running for the year. Especially as you get towards the end of the year with a larger sample size. And no it doesn't change anything, but I just like to know.

Not currently, but most of my first dozen years in Vegas, most years by years end were pretty close to expectation. I played 80-100 thousand rounds a year and that was enough that most years were pretty close. But even more than that if you expand out a little and take results for any 2 or 3 year period and compare to expectation, it was amazingly close.

And while that doesn't change anything, it is just sort of confirmation, or re-affirmation, that the math work. Even 20+ years in, there are times I go on a pretty good losing period for weeks and months, and despite 20+ years of doing this, You start to say what the fuck!!?? Then I look at my longer term numbers and it just sort of re-affirms that everything is working just the way the math says it should. Just a little variance. The math doesn't lie.

So no doesn't change anything, but it helps me.