Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

When I saw a fan graph stating Brewers 15% chance to win the World series, I liked it and believed it. Just saw another fangraph stating the Brewers will finish the last 50 games 26-24, clearly hogwash with a small chance of being right. Right now, it's hard to believe the Brewers will even lose a game at all, so I would bet against the Brewers only having 94 wins end of season. A month ago they're saying 82 wins and a week or two ago 88.5. If they can get past the Braves with a sweep and take 2/3 from the Mets, success. The Mets have been playing badly lately and I expect failure against the Brewers.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Fangraphs and baseball reference says 15-17% odds of the Brewers winning the world series which translates to odds +450 to +525. When I see those odds I will intend to cash out a lot.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I missed out playing Bruce Turang's 2 homer game a few days ago and betting tonight he will get a HR. He is +1200, have made many profit boosts parlays with the over, the under and Milwaukee winning outright and by 2. It's a long shot by far.

[kewlJ]

Although we have interest in the same team, the Brewers, we have different interests. My wager is for them to win the division only.

So here is the way I look at that. Brewers are 3 games up on the Cubs. Brewers are the only team in baseball playing .600 ball for the season. I see no reason to believe that this fundamentally sound team is going to all of the sudden go in the tank and play .500 or below for the final 50 games. But lets say they only went 27-23 over that final 50 games. that would be .540 ball, a drop from what they have played all season. That means the Cubs would have to go 30-20 to catch them.

Is it possible the Cubs get hot and go 30-20. Sure. That is a .600 clip. But they haven't played .600 ball for the season. and if you look more recently they are 11-9 in last 20 games, 17-13 in last 30 games. That is .550 and .567 clip. So at no time, for the year or in recent games have they played .600. So I don't see any reason to believe they will now for the remainder of season. My analysis: Brewers to win the division.

Now when I apply the same metric to another division, where I have a wager, Toronto is ahead on Red Sox by the same 3 game. Toronto has played .579 baseball for the year. So lets say the same thing. suppose they go 27-23 over their final 50 games, which I think is reasonable for a .579 team. Now it is the Red Sox who would have to go 30-20 (.600 ball) to catch them. Are the Red Sox capable of playing .600 ball? Well for the year (which includes a very bad start) they have only played .553 baseball. But if you look more recently at the last 20 and 30 games, they are 14-6 in last 20 games, and 22-8 in last 30 games. That is .700 & .733 over those stretches. So I could see them going 30-20 (.600 ball) the rest of the way. My Analisis: Red Sox can catch Toronto.

I am trying to be objective. What do you think?

[theywontpayontuesday]

Although we have interest in the same team, the Brewers, we have different interests. My wager is for them to win the division only.

So here is the way I look at that. Brewers are 3 games up on the Cubs. Brewers are the only team in baseball playing .600 ball for the season. I see no reason to believe that this fundamentally sound team is going to all of the sudden go in the tank and play .500 or below for the final 50 games. But lets say they only went 27-23 over that final 50 games. that would be .540 ball, a drop from what they have played all season. That means the Cubs would have to go 30-20 to catch them.

Is it possible the Cubs get hot and go 30-20. Sure. That is a .600 clip. But they haven't played .600 ball for the season. and if you look more recently they are 11-9 in last 20 games, 17-13 in last 30 games. That is .550 and .567 clip. So at no time, for the year or in recent games have they played .600. So I don't see any reason to believe they will now for the remainder of season. My analysis: Brewers to win the division.

Now when I apply the same metric to another division, where I have a wager, Toronto is ahead on Red Sox by the same 3 game. Toronto has played .579 baseball for the year. So lets say the same thing. suppose they go 27-23 over their final 50 games, which I think is reasonable for a .579 team. Now it is the Red Sox who would have to go 30-20 (.600 ball) to catch them. Are the Red Sox capable of playing .600 ball? Well for the year (which includes a very bad start) they have only played .553 baseball. But if you look more recently at the last 20 and 30 games, they are 14-6 in last 20 games, and 22-8 in last 30 games. That is .700 & .733 over those stretches. So I could see them going 30-20 (.600 ball) the rest of the way. My Analisis: Red Sox can catch Toronto.

I am trying to be objective. What do you think?

Quite reasonable and objective. When you bet on sports, you are competing about ideas with other people. In this case, the majority are pitted against us and have something to lose. It's natural for the team with the nest record in baseball to get push back, because betting odds dont support the Brewers like they should and will. Having still an unpopular opinion, I stress the heck out every day. I know someone well and they told me, they will watch me lose. He is a low level, low intelligence A, but it still bothers me. If the season started a week or two later, the Brewers would be like .720. Still I stress. What I expect is the Brewers to finish the last 50 near .600 if not closer to .700. Because it is so far from .520, I get scared. Mid August to early September is a time I cannot be under much stress, I'd hate being disappointed then having my heart broken and feeling depressed, so I allow myself to feel worry. They could win every day for a week from now and I'd probably still be scared if I dont get the reassurance money is following my bets.

[theywontpayontuesday]

So relief for today, the Brewers and Astros won handily. Tomorrow will be a challenge facing Strider for the Braves.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Brewers are said to have 99.8% odds to make the playoffs. This made me remember the time of baseball right now where the season is getting closer to the end.soon teams will be eliminated or talked about clinching spots and the battles down the wire.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Im back to being optimistic. I believe my teams are going to heat up. They're shooting loaded dice but sometimes their advantage isn't materialized. The better your statistical average expected the better the results. Hopefully the Brewers are so good they always slump at a higher winning percentage. I think it explains their previous winning streak by going back on a winning streak again. Same fears persist, but slumps and regression are less pronounced.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Hopefully no jinx, I pick the Cubs today instead of Reds.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I noticed the odds fell to win the World Series Brewers to +1200. This is the validation I've been waiting for. My +4000 Brewrers bets now offer 1.9x initial bet as a cash out.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Usually you cannot move a line until the day of the game. Today I would want to take Milwaukee -1.5 and it is still not an option.

[theywontpayontuesday]

N9w if is possible.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I started betting the Brewers on July 9th. What Im wondering is what day did you buy your NL central division bets? What Im thinking is the division, number one seed, pennant, and world series are baked into the World Series bets. I'd like to compare my futures bought when you bought your division bets and see when the season is over if I would win just as much to cash out as your division bet to win. I think July 23rd or July 24th was when futures fell on ESPN app to +1500.

[theywontpayontuesday]

To express a 30% probability in American odds, you need to use the following formula for probabilities of 50% or less:
American Odds = (100 / Probability) - 100
In this case:
Probability = 30% = 0.30
Therefore,
American Odds = (100 / 0.30) - 100 = 333.33 - 100 = +233.33
Explanation of American odds
American odds are commonly used in sports betting in the United States. They are displayed with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to indicate whether a team or outcome is a favorite or an underdog.
Negative odds (-) indicate the favorite. The number shows how much you need to bet to win $100. For example, -110 means you need to bet $110 to win $100.
Positive odds (+) indicate the underdog. The number shows how much you will win if you bet $100. For example, +200 means you will win $200 if you bet $100.
Therefore, a 30% probability, corresponding to +233.33 in American odds, indicates that the outcome is considered an underdog by the oddsmakers, meaning it is less likely to happen. If you were to place a bet, a $100 wager would potentially yield $233.33 in winnings.

Baseball reference says the Brewers odds of winning their pennant is 29%, so odds +700, 800, 900 are a steal.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I myself had bet the Brewers to win their division on July 23rd at +125 and it may have been the same on the 24th. I really should have spread this bet on Brewers amongst other casinos seeing better odds. It will cost me a lot of money not shopping for better lines. I was betting $400 +1400. I never looked at the machines at all to check lines when at a casino. Someone told me they had +2000 @ casinos so I added to my bet. I bought small tickets and so did my compares. I was so confident then I almost took out debt to buy a boatload more. I dont really have an exit plan for $27000 in wins. . There are no self pay kiosks.

[MDawg]

What we DO know about UNKewlJ is that he is just as much of a

thieving lying low down no good varmint.

in person as he is online.

His own family booted him from the familial household, what does that tell you?

Is there anyone on these forums more universally despised than the UNKewl one? Doubtful.

[kewlJ]

With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew?

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

[MDawg]

You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Hopefully for my sake, Milwaukee and Philadelphia take the top 2 seeds. It is within the reach of Philadelphia to do so. I keep forgetting what a difference Max Muncy can make though and the Dodgers schedule. The schedule is easy, but many tough losable games left ans the Dodgers havent really showed themselves to have warmed up in August and September yet. We'll see if this weekend series of Mets @ Brewers starts the final slide to take the Mets out of the playoffs, so this is why it will probably need to be Philadelphia to get hot and stay hot.

[theywontpayontuesday]

With the few baseball games done for the day, I am watching a few minutes of the Raiders on local (over the air) TV here in Vegas. It is local Fox channel here. they claim they air all the Athletic games as well. Who knew?

One of the things that annoys me is that with my MLB subscription, all 5 California teams + Arizona are blacked out. And now it turns out I could have watched the A's all season. And I actually like watching and betting on the A's and the kid "Big Amish".

This usually does suck thinking you'll be able to see an important game, but you can't.