Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
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The Wizard tracked a little over 2,000 NFL games and found that the home faves were well over bet against the spread

he has the away underdog winning 53.75% of the time ats and generating a 2.57% positive return - see link

I wanted to see more data re that so I found a site with historical data and I found that in the last 50 seasons against the spread away underdogs have won more games than the home favorite in 34 of those seasons and lost more games than the home favorite in only 16 of those seasons - see link

it looks like a player betting only away underdogs will very likely have one of these three things happen - 1. a tiny loss, or more likely______ 2. about breaking even or______ 3. a smallish win

all the while the player can easily be milking free play and/or bonus money while he's doing this


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/


You need to consider, as Rod Serling might say, the consequences of time as a dimension. "The public" or "the money," or whatever you want to call money-wagered, bets favorites more than underdogs. Always has. Therefore what you are not mentioning is the timing factor that is necessary and crucial to anything like you are suggesting. The long-term cumulative ATS record of underdogs given Sunday night opening lines for the next week will never be as good as the same tally done an hour before kickoff on Sunday. In other words, you have to clarify what day of the week those historical numbers being quoted are referencing. Are they closing numbers? Opening numbers?

Now, does everybody know this? Yes they do. I'm just stating the obvious in the interests of narrowing and clarifying your recommendation in the above post.