Professional Sportsbetting

[kewlJ]

Yes, I know, thus the question. I was wondering if buying something that needs to be registered and licensed in another state, if they end up charging you the sales taxes you would have paid elsewhere, I know they charge you some type of extra fees, I just wasn't sure what they were.

I touched on this when we bought the Newell in Oregon but registered it at our S. Dakota home. We paid a 4% excise tax there, but if we were Oregon residents there'd be no tax. The big difference was with the registration cost. In Oregon, a $1.5mil rv costs around $30,000 to register the 1st year, decreasing slightly every subsequent year. While we paid a one time $60k tax at purchase, the yearly registration fee was just over $1000.

The out-of-state tax paperwork was what I was trying to explain about when some here claimed all kinds of nonsense over our having bought the Newell. The dealership (a used rv dealer--the 2011 was a year old) gave us a heap of paperwork with the purchase: warranty & exclusions, agreements, t's & c's for out-of-state buyers, and a whole host of other stuff. They also provided us with a short form generic sales agreement for use for out-of-state registrations. This is the one kew lied about being my signatures everywhere and others claimed wasn't real. On and on.

Anyone buying an RV: THOROUGHLY check and know all the regulations in the state or states you're dealing with, and incorporate plans on expected length of ownership and usage into your overall financial equation. And, contrary to what the vast majority of buyers do, never finance an RV.

Okey dokey, KewlJ.

Acct, Thanks for quoting, so I saw this.

Is Rob talking about the 1.5 million dollar RV that he bought with the make beleive double up bug winnings?

Is Rob talking about The RV that he bought from a company that was in bankruptcy and not selling RV, at the time he said? (They later emerged from Bancrupcy as a much smaller company that only did repair work)

Is Rob talking about the RV for which he has a generic bill of sale for (printed from the internet) with no company letterhead or Logo and all signatures in the same handwriting?

THAT RV Rob?

But apparently NOT the one he climbed into at the dealership pretending it was his. And apparently NOT the one he snuck up on at a RV park to take pictures of claiming it was his?


BTW, just imagine the people that owned the RV at the RV park, when Rob came creeping around taking pictures. Poor folks, probably eating and making their dinner, when this lunatic comes creeping around taking pictures.

[kewlJ]

Maybe I was a little hasty in blocking Rob.

Sure I don't see all the garbage he posts, but I also miss out on a post like above, seeing the loser degenerate gambler with the retirement plan of mooching off his kids, play pretend. Pure Gold!

[MDawg]

It would be expected that someone who merely reads about blackjack but doesn't play much of it would have such bland descriptions with, as almost always, not a single description of an actual hand played.

[jdaewoo]

Why isn't this retard pretending that he is relevant?

[AxelWolf]

Can you screenshot me or link me to the Caesars line?

Link to the 3rd party site, June 27th page:

https://www.proboxingodds.com/events/2025-06-27-2266

To see the props, click the props down-arrow far to the right of a fighter's name.

That's the screenshot I provided. I'm not aware of any availability of archived odds at the sportsbooks themselves.

I noted also that FanDuel had -900 on "fight goes to decision." Logically, that would indicate a very high probability of finishing OVER 8.5 (in a 10-round fight). Not that you'll get anywhere with logic.

Thank you, did my Host/agent and he took care of it without any further explanation.

[mickeycrimm]

Lots of RV'ers use South Dakota as a residence because of the cheap RV registration fee's. The van dwelling nomads also do it. Rob could probably explain this in more detail.

The Flying J in Box Elder, South Dakota is one of my gas stops on my way to the midwest casinos. I seen the sign of a business there that says AMERICA'S MAILBOX. I googled them up and, among other services, they give you a legal South Dakota address.

https://americasmailbox.com/

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Am...oASAFQAw%3D%3D

[Don Perignom]

Thank you, did my Host/agent and he took care of it without any further explanation.

Perfect. I don't often see long odds on an over/under, except if it's an alt line. Apparently, it's more common in boxing. In your example, it was a 10-round fight. The bookmaker's only viable option was the 8.5 because a 9.5 total would be functionally equivalent to the yes/no DECISION bet. Any total less than 8.5 would have even longer odds.

Looking at the board currently at DraftKings, I see a similar setup on Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano. The 8.5 total is -1100 over/+550 under. That's also a 10-round fight.

Jack Catterall vs Harlem Eubank is a 12-round fight that's apparently expected to require a decision. The 10.5 total is -500 over/+310 under.

[mickeycrimm]

[MisterV]

Great video, thanks Mickey.

[mickeycrimm]

So now we know the reason redietz doesn't go to Bet Bash:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1956161255661822134

[Half Smoke]

.

The Wizard tracked a little over 2,000 NFL games and found that the home faves were well over bet against the spread

he has the away underdog winning 53.75% of the time ats and generating a 2.57% positive return - see link

I wanted to see more data re that so I found a site with historical data and I found that in the last 50 seasons against the spread away underdogs have won more games than the home favorite in 34 of those seasons and lost more games than the home favorite in only 16 of those seasons - see link

it looks like a player betting only away underdogs will very likely have one of these three things happen - 1. a tiny loss, or more likely______ 2. about breaking even or______ 3. a smallish win

all the while the player can easily be milking free play and/or bonus money while he's doing this


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

[redietz]

.

The Wizard tracked a little over 2,000 NFL games and found that the home faves were well over bet against the spread

he has the away underdog winning 53.75% of the time ats and generating a 2.57% positive return - see link

I wanted to see more data re that so I found a site with historical data and I found that in the last 50 seasons against the spread away underdogs have won more games than the home favorite in 34 of those seasons and lost more games than the home favorite in only 16 of those seasons - see link

it looks like a player betting only away underdogs will very likely have one of these three things happen - 1. a tiny loss, or more likely______ 2. about breaking even or______ 3. a smallish win

all the while the player can easily be milking free play and/or bonus money while he's doing this


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

You need to consider, as Rod Serling might say, the consequences of time as a dimension. "The public" or "the money," or whatever you want to call money-wagered, bets favorites more than underdogs. Always has. Therefore what you are not mentioning is the timing factor that is necessary and crucial to anything like you are suggesting. The long-term cumulative ATS record of underdogs given Sunday night opening lines for the next week will never be as good as the same tally done an hour before kickoff on Sunday. In other words, you have to clarify what day of the week those historical numbers being quoted are referencing. Are they closing numbers? Opening numbers?

Now, does everybody know this? Yes they do. I'm just stating the obvious in the interests of narrowing and clarifying your recommendation in the above post.

[Half Smoke]

Are they closing numbers? Opening numbers?

in all of the instances that I have checked on a quote - usually from covers.com but also from others - they quote the closing line that is most common among the various sportsbooks

"The public" or "the money," or whatever you want to call money-wagered, bets favorites more than underdogs. Always has.

this suggests that favorites are over bet probably by those who are less than knowledgeable and who rely on the crowd to make their selection

again, this is confirmed by the Wizard's data on 3,100 games in which all faves won just 47.92% and all dogs won 52.08%

the faves are over bet even more when they are at home as I indicated earlier

I believe the Wizard used closing lines for his data - nothing else would make sense


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


.

[kewlJ]

In addition to gaining an actual possible slight long-term advantage, this would be a damn good strategy for working through rollover eating into it minimally or maybe not at all.

Obviously if betting favorites the best lines you will see are early in the week and if betting dogs, closer to game time (unless the public has really gone bonkers with the favorite and there is a late adjustment by sharps).

BUT what about when taking advantage of some promotion like half juice Fridays. I would think the advantage of half vig, overrides maybe not getting the absolute best (last) lines.

[redietz]

In addition to gaining an actual possible slight long-term advantage, this would be a damn good strategy for working through rollover eating into it minimally or maybe not at all.

Obviously if betting favorites the best lines you will see are early in the week and if betting dogs, closer to game time (unless the public has really gone bonkers with the favorite and there is a late adjustment by sharps).

BUT what about when taking advantage of some promotion like half juice Fridays. I would think the advantage of half vig, overrides maybe not getting the absolute best (last) lines.

Final piece of advice.

There are no "sharps." There are no "squares." If you think you are a "sharp," you probably ain't.

There is only money.

Relying on self-boosting jargon to tuck yourself in at night is less masturbatory than clinging to personal "EV" estimates of open systems, but it's still pretty much Linus with his security blanket. Jargon does nothing positive for you except to bond with other jargoneers.

And oh yeah, if the numbers being used for these NFL analyses are all closing numbers, then it would behoove one to run the data using opening numbers as well to understand what you are looking at. Because looking under the streetlight for your missing wallet at 2 AM doesn't necessarily yield your wallet, if you get my drift. You are looking where it's convenient.

And of course, demographies and group minds change, so that 52% for 30 years could become 48% for the next five. Or worse. Don't be a trendsvestite.

This is not coin flipping. Never has been.

[MDawg]

Ask Dan the Dandruff Man to Confirm what SeedValue already revealed - that UNKewlJ's online posts mostly geolocate to the corner of E Bonanza Rd and N Las Vegas Blvd, which is where some homeless like UNKewlJ hang. Nowhere near where she would like people to think that she dwells.

[kewlJ]

In addition to gaining an actual possible slight long-term advantage, this would be a damn good strategy for working through rollover eating into it minimally or maybe not at all.

Obviously if betting favorites the best lines you will see are early in the week and if betting dogs, closer to game time (unless the public has really gone bonkers with the favorite and there is a late adjustment by sharps).

BUT what about when taking advantage of some promotion like half juice Fridays. I would think the advantage of half vig, overrides maybe not getting the absolute best (last) lines.

Final piece of advice.

There are no "sharps." There are no "squares." If you think you are a "sharp," you probably ain't.

There is only money.

Relying on self-boosting jargon to tuck yourself in at night is less masturbatory than clinging to personal "EV" estimates of open systems, but it's still pretty much Linus with his security blanket. Jargon does nothing positive for you except to bond with other jargoneers.

Deitz, you have been around sports betting for decades.....as a tout. So I have no doubt you know some things like jargon used (if you think that is important). I do however have great doubts about your ability to pick winners (long-term) and/or do ANYTHING +EV with sports betting. If you did, you wouldn't have been a tout all those years and needed other people's money to bet.

So you will forgive me if I don't put much stock in anything you say or claim anymore. Especially as you continue to talk down to people, you arrogant asshole. A guy who was a "tout" (salesman) for 40 years is talking down to people.

[accountinquestion]

I enjoyed redietz's posts here. Even if he feels a need to attack those who use EV etc - his posts are definitely worth reading even if somewhat obvious.

Unlike someone else ....

Just saying. I like this redietz who posts useful things and not trying to start up shit with random people who identify as APs.

[AxelWolf]

In addition to gaining an actual possible slight long-term advantage, this would be a damn good strategy for working through rollover eating into it minimally or maybe not at all.

Obviously if betting favorites the best lines you will see are early in the week and if betting dogs, closer to game time (unless the public has really gone bonkers with the favorite and there is a late adjustment by sharps).

BUT what about when taking advantage of some promotion like half juice Fridays. I would think the advantage of half vig, overrides maybe not getting the absolute best (last) lines.

Final piece of advice.

There are no "sharps." There are no "squares." If you think you are a "sharp," you probably ain't.

There is only money.

Relying on self-boosting jargon to tuck yourself in at night is less masturbatory than clinging to personal "EV" estimates of open systems, but it's still pretty much Linus with his security blanket. Jargon does nothing positive for you except to bond with other jargoneers.

And oh yeah, if the numbers being used for these NFL analyses are all closing numbers, then it would behoove one to run the data using opening numbers as well to understand what you are looking at. Because looking under the streetlight for your missing wallet at 2 AM doesn't necessarily yield your wallet, if you get my drift. You are looking where it's convenient.

And of course, demographies and group minds change, so that 52% for 30 years could become 48% for the next five. Or worse. Don't be a trendsvestite.

This is not coin flipping. Never has been.

I'm still curious as to why you advised your Compadres to make $100 on a promotion that was worth way more and then chastise people like me who made my Compadres much more and myself money as well?

[AxelWolf]

I enjoyed redietz's posts here. Even if he feels a need to attack those who use EV etc - his posts are definitely worth reading even if somewhat obvious.

Unlike someone else ....

Just saying. I like this redietz who posts useful things and not trying to start up shit with random people who identify as APs.

if I recall correctly you once told me that you loved watching train wrecks.