Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

In addition to gaining an actual possible slight long-term advantage, this would be a damn good strategy for working through rollover eating into it minimally or maybe not at all.

Obviously if betting favorites the best lines you will see are early in the week and if betting dogs, closer to game time (unless the public has really gone bonkers with the favorite and there is a late adjustment by sharps).

BUT what about when taking advantage of some promotion like half juice Fridays. I would think the advantage of half vig, overrides maybe not getting the absolute best (last) lines.

Final piece of advice.

There are no "sharps." There are no "squares." If you think you are a "sharp," you probably ain't.

There is only money.

Relying on self-boosting jargon to tuck yourself in at night is less masturbatory than clinging to personal "EV" estimates of open systems, but it's still pretty much Linus with his security blanket. Jargon does nothing positive for you except to bond with other jargoneers.

Deitz, you have been around sports betting for decades.....as a tout. So I have no doubt you know some things like jargon used (if you think that is important). I do however have great doubts about your ability to pick winners (long-term) and/or do ANYTHING +EV with sports betting. If you did, you wouldn't have been a tout all those years and needed other people's money to bet.

So you will forgive me if I don't put much stock in anything you say or claim anymore. Especially as you continue to talk down to people, you arrogant asshole. A guy who was a "tout" (salesman) for 40 years is talking down to people.

LOL. The guy who won't/can't meet up (even once) with his honorable, inestimable comrades-in-APing and who has not presented one verifiable shred of evidence regarding anything he has done is lecturing someone who has a public ATS record stretching back decades and who has been in the public eye for the entirety of his career. And who, it might be added, worked strictly on a percent of profit basis the last 15 years of his career, which is not being a tout any more than AP partnering is being a tout. And who, for the entirety of his career, was not referred to as a "tout" by anyone in the tout business.

And this is why I have zero reason to post here. You have a faux blackjack player who lies about everything, including his own death, and who multiple people have identified as a prostitute. Now I don't know about anyone else who has explored the forum circuit for years, but I have never run into an alleged blackjack player who has been identified as a male prostitute before. I guess I lead a sheltered life. And more than one person has sworn to it. Think about that. How many times in your life have you encountered a gambling poster who nobody ever meets but who multiple people have tagged as a male prostitute? It's funny as hell that he parades around as the soul of legitimate gambling. It's a joke.

To paraphrase Singer, kewlJ cries and argues that people are identifying him as a prostitute because he's gay. Now think about what's more likely. People have identified him as a prostitute because he's gay, OR

Kewlj publicly identifies as gay on forums precisely because he's a prostitute.

Deep thoughts. Pretty obvious stuff when you frame it the logical way.

Have a good football season gentlemen.

And MDawg, please quote me. List my email address if you like, so folks can check up on me or contact me. Integritysports@aol.com. Carry on.

[MDawg]

You would do all APs, and all serious gamblers, a huge favor by just breaking your own fingers so you stop all this incessant, brutal lying-while-typing bullshit.

Your schizophrenic posts and wall-to-wall lies get old.

[Rob.Singer]

Uh-oh....kew's not gonna like that....Get the popcorn ready for more lie-filled attempts at convincing!!

(Isn't that what all true AP's do??)

[Rob.Singer]

Uh-oh....kew's not gonna like that....Get the popcorn ready for more lie-filled attempts at convincing!!

(Isn't that what all true AP's do??) And it was worth posting twice

[accountinquestion]

Final piece of advice.

There are no "sharps." There are no "squares." If you think you are a "sharp," you probably ain't.

There is only money.

Relying on self-boosting jargon to tuck yourself in at night is less masturbatory than clinging to personal "EV" estimates of open systems, but it's still pretty much Linus with his security blanket. Jargon does nothing positive for you except to bond with other jargoneers.

Deitz, you have been around sports betting for decades.....as a tout. So I have no doubt you know some things like jargon used (if you think that is important). I do however have great doubts about your ability to pick winners (long-term) and/or do ANYTHING +EV with sports betting. If you did, you wouldn't have been a tout all those years and needed other people's money to bet.

So you will forgive me if I don't put much stock in anything you say or claim anymore. Especially as you continue to talk down to people, you arrogant asshole. A guy who was a "tout" (salesman) for 40 years is talking down to people.

LOL. The guy who won't/can't meet up (even once) with his honorable, inestimable comrades-in-APing and who has not presented one verifiable shred of evidence regarding anything he has done is lecturing someone who has a public ATS record stretching back decades and who has been in the public eye for the entirety of his career. And who, it might be added, worked strictly on a percent of profit basis the last 15 years of his career, which is not being a tout any more than AP partnering is being a tout. And who, for the entirety of his career, was not referred to as a "tout" by anyone in the tout business.

And this is why I have zero reason to post here. You have a faux blackjack player who lies about everything, including his own death, and who multiple people have identified as a prostitute. Now I don't know about anyone else who has explored the forum circuit for years, but I have never run into an alleged blackjack player who has been identified as a male prostitute before. I guess I lead a sheltered life. And more than one person has sworn to it. Think about that. How many times in your life have you encountered a gambling poster who nobody ever meets but who multiple people have tagged as a male prostitute? It's funny as hell that he parades around as the soul of legitimate gambling. It's a joke.

To paraphrase Singer, kewlJ cries and argues that people are identifying him as a prostitute because he's gay. Now think about what's more likely. People have identified him as a prostitute because he's gay, OR

Kewlj publicly identifies as gay on forums precisely because he's a prostitute.

Deep thoughts. Pretty obvious stuff when you frame it the logical way.

Have a good football season gentlemen.

And MDawg, please quote me. List my email address if you like, so folks can check up on me or contact me. Integritysports@aol.com. Carry on.

Redietz has a solid point yet again. Redietz sits around in Circus Circus inviting people to come see him. Kewl won't go near anyone after being on the gambling inet for well well over 10 years. Funny how opposite these 2 are and I have to say, Kewl.. he makes a solid point as to why to not listen to you.

[kewlJ]

2 points.

#1 Do you know where the whole "KJ is a male prostitute" things came from? It wasn't seedvalue. It wasn't Mdawg. They just repeated it. It was redietz who said this a number of time. Redietz said it! Others repeated it. And now he dares say "he has been identified as..."

#2 As to a solid point as to why people shouldn't listen to me: When did I ever ask anyone to. I say what I want to say. Share what I want to share. I don't give a rat's ass who listens, who believes. You know why? Because I am not selling anything. Uh can Bob Deitz say the same? He is a tout. Touts make money by selling.

[Half Smoke]

.
what I posted is an opinion on finding a good bet - not a guarantee - there are no guarantees in sports betting

imo it has some value - which is why I posted it - anybody who thinks it has no value is free to ignore it

some updated info on just the last 10 years :



the home fave has has lost more games than the away underdog in 7 of the last 10 seasons

the away underdog has won 52.2% in the last 10 seasons - less than the wizard found (53.75) - see link

no edge - but just about break even - still good for earning bonuses and free play

in the last 10 seasons the most the away underdog lost was 54.7% in any one season - the most the away underdog won was 59.3% in any one season


https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

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[AxelWolf]

.
what I posted is an opinion on finding a good bet - not a guarantee - there are no guarantees in sports betting

imo it has some value - which is why I posted it - anybody who thinks it has no value is free to ignore it

some updated info on just the last 10 years :



the home fave has has lost more games than the away underdog in 7 of the last 10 seasons

the away underdog has won 52.2% in the last 10 seasons - less than the wizard found (53.75) - see link

no edge - but just about break even - still good for earning bonuses and free play

in the last 10 seasons the most the away underdog lost was 54.7% in any one season - the most the away underdog won was 59.3% in any one season


https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

.

I take it the away underdog who is getting 4pts or less has not changed?

[MDawg]

I'm going to have to now even jump on the belief that he really is a low level card counter that had a sugar daddy like most of the AP community believes.

Besides making perfect sense, seedvalue's investigation established it, and MaxPen and others' sightings of UNKewlJ in the presence of a sugar daddy type affirmed it.

Plus, perhaps the greatest affirmation of all, soon after the truth with all its back up broke UNKewlJ disavowed the existence of his deceased soul male sugar daddy. When have we known UNKewlJ to disavow (such as when he claimed he was not even gay, admitted that he lied about the lawsuit, changed around his OSN database story, altered details of the $50. freeplay $100K hit, changed his college dropout story, etc.) other than when the heat is on and the hounds have him by the tail.

A lot has been said about you. I find it telling that you only focus on a few things. Especially the male prostitute thing. I am inclined to believe the things you focus in on refuting are the one's that hit closest to home.

[Keystone]

A lot has been said about you. I find it telling that you only focus on a few things. Especially the male prostitute thing. I am inclined to believe the things you focus in on refuting are the one's that hit closest to home.

KJ can you give this faggot your phone number already?

[Half Smoke]

.
what I posted is an opinion on finding a good bet - not a guarantee - there are no guarantees in sports betting

imo it has some value - which is why I posted it - anybody who thinks it has no value is free to ignore it

some updated info on just the last 10 years :



the home fave has has lost more games than the away underdog in 7 of the last 10 seasons

the away underdog has won 52.2% in the last 10 seasons - less than the wizard found (53.75) - see link

no edge - but just about break even - still good for earning bonuses and free play

in the last 10 seasons the most the away underdog lost was 54.7% in any one season - the most the away underdog won was 59.3% in any one season


https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

.

I take it the away underdog who is getting 4pts or less has not changed?

sorry, I don't remember posting anything about that

if you can find a post by me related to that maybe I can respond better

I couldn't find anything out about that in a google search - I wouldn't have done that much work to track only certain games

.

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=redietz;200408][QUOTE=kewlJ;200401]

LOL. The guy who won't/can't meet up (even once) with his honorable, inestimable comrades-in-APing and who has not presented one verifiable shred of evidence regarding anything he has done is lecturing someone who has a public ATS record stretching back decades and who has been in the public eye for the entirety of his career. And who, it might be added, worked strictly on a percent of profit basis the last 15 years of his career, which is not being a tout any more than AP partnering is being a tout. And who, for the entirety of his career, was not referred to as a "tout" by anyone in the tout business.on.

So by paying you....your clients pay double juice? Triple juice? What percentage do you have to win for your clients to break even? 55%? 57%? 60%?

Do you promise to refund them 100% if you have a losing year?

Carry over their losses to the next season? Or do you get to start out fresh every year?

Your clients are innocent fucks but dumb. The risk vs. reward is horrible.

But Ive got to hand it to you. Not even Billy Walters could operate in the public eye, showing everyone his track record year after year for forty years, and still be allowed to bet in all those books. He had to use beards. You and mdawg have a lot in common. You both beat the shit out of the casinos and they love you for it.

[AxelWolf]

.
what I posted is an opinion on finding a good bet - not a guarantee - there are no guarantees in sports betting

imo it has some value - which is why I posted it - anybody who thinks it has no value is free to ignore it

some updated info on just the last 10 years :



the home fave has has lost more games than the away underdog in 7 of the last 10 seasons

the away underdog has won 52.2% in the last 10 seasons - less than the wizard found (53.75) - see link

no edge - but just about break even - still good for earning bonuses and free play

in the last 10 seasons the most the away underdog lost was 54.7% in any one season - the most the away underdog won was 59.3% in any one season


https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

.

I take it the away underdog who is getting 4pts or less has not changed?

sorry, I don't remember posting anything about that

if you can find a post by me related to that maybe I can respond better

I couldn't find anything out about that in a google search - I wouldn't have done that much work to track only certain games

.

Perhaps it was just the first 2 weeks?

[MDawg]

The greatest AP Wolf on all Gambling Forums sure does have a hard time remembering all the time.
Must be all that Captain Morgan or just all the bullshit stories you keep mixing up.
Poser!

[jdaewoo]

This retard doesn't gamble.

[Half Smoke]

.Perhaps it was just the first 2 weeks?

yes, I posted that last season and it won by a small %

I will post again with all the details before the first game of this season

Edit - might as well post it now

all underdogs first 2 weeks of the season

a year ago I speculated that will all the new players coming in and all of the older players now a year older there would be much unpredictability that favors the dogs since they are getting points

I've now tracked the last 500 games of the first 2 weeks of several seasons and the underdogs have won 55% which equates to about 5% profit for anybody who had bet on all of them

yesterday, I searched google and found they confirmed the idea:



"AI Overview

In the early parts of the NFL season, underdogs have demonstrated a surprising ability to perform well against the spread (ATS) and even secure outright victories.

Based on recent trends and betting analysis, there's evidence suggesting that underdogs in the NFL tend to perform well in the early part of the season, particularly against the spread.

Here's why this trend is observed and some considerations for betting on underdogs early in the NFL season:

Uncertainty and Value: Early in the season, the true strength of teams is still relatively unknown, leading to more uncertainty in setting betting lines. This uncertainty can create value for bettors in identifying underestimated
underdog teams that might have a higher chance of performing better than expected, especially against the spread."


https://www.google.com/search?q=unde...hrome&ie=UTF-8





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[Half Smoke]

.
maybe pretty obvious but just to be sure there's no confusion the picks for the first 2 weeks are against the spread

I overlooked putting that in my op and it's too late to edit

[redietz]

.
maybe pretty obvious but just to be sure there's no confusion the picks for the first 2 weeks are against the spread

I overlooked putting that in my op and it's too late to edit

Half Smoke, I'm mentioning this as a public service to you, which connects to why I previously asked the leading question about opening versus closing lines. You are looking at a schedule where at least eight of the NFL games Week One have spreads of two or under AS OPENING LINES. Since you do not know who the actual favorite will be as a closing line (it could be all eight or -- unlikely but possible -- none), and since the historical stats you are using to guide you use CLOSING LINES as their metric, this means you must WAIT until minutes before kickoff to actually wager on this theory.

As an aside, Marc Lawrence's Playbook has been running programs for decades pinning down the historical trends similar to what was mentioned in your AI quote. Lawrence's son is a programmer and has always taken this AI kind of approach to handicapping.

I mentioned this stuff since it seems to have slipped everyone else's mind. LOL.