Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

Quick question for our resident sports betting "expert", Bob Dietz : do you think this 1st 2 weeks NFL play, backed by 15 years of data (still somewhat small sample size) is + EV? (According to whatever strange definition you come up with for +EV)

I think you are conflating being a trendsvestite with knowing what you're doing.

And I can't take any credit at all for the word "trendsvestite." Mike McCusker, who published summaries of sports service handicapping results for years in Las Vegas, coined the term in the 80's. McCusker was a former Seattle Times reporter who charted the results of more than a hundred professional handicappers for years and published the results annually. His publication included summaries of two, three, four, and five-year records.

The idea that you can import the phrase "EV" from the world of random probability and apply it to non-random events, based on your opinion, and leave out the little detail that it's "your" expected value, not THE EV, is the height of narcissism. It's ridiculous.

[kewlJ]

The post above is that of a jackass. It really is! Redeitz, what the fuck happened to you?

[kewlJ]

Dietz, you are so hell bent on trying to discredit and put down anyone doing things differently that you.

Get over it!

There are many ways to gain an edge in sports betting. Many ways to skin the cat.

[redietz]

Dietz, you are so hell bent on trying to discredit and put down anyone doing things differently that you.

Get over it!

There are many ways to gain an edge in sports betting. Many ways to skin the cat.

Programmers have been doing analyses of handicapping trends for 50 years. Welcome to 1975.

[MDawg]

If kewlJ IS a male escort, the whole blackjack schtick is an excellent cover story to explain income to the IRS AND facilitate meeting wealthy dudes at casino tables.

That is precisely what he does. He's been observed at the tables by a host of people including MaxPen and AxelWolf, in the presence of an obvious sugar daddy type, pushing around low level red and green chips as obvious cover.

[accountinquestion]

Quick question for our resident sports betting "expert", Bob Dietz : do you think this 1st 2 weeks NFL play, backed by 15 years of data (still somewhat small sample size) is + EV? (According to whatever strange definition you come up with for +EV)

I think you are conflating being a trendsvestite with knowing what you're doing.

And I can't take any credit at all for the word "trendsvestite." Mike McCusker, who published summaries of sports service handicapping results for years in Las Vegas, coined the term in the 80's. McCusker was a former Seattle Times reporter who charted the results of more than a hundred professional handicappers for years and published the results annually. His publication included summaries of two, three, four, and five-year records.

The idea that you can import the phrase "EV" from the world of random probability and apply it to non-random events, based on your opinion, and leave out the little detail that it's "your" expected value, not THE EV, is the height of narcissism. It's ridiculous.

Read Wikipedia article on EV.

All those extreme narcissists - editing these wiki articles about third parties using mathematical concepts.

The nerve!

[kewlJ]

Dietz, you are so hell bent on trying to discredit and put down anyone doing things differently that you.

Get over it!

There are many ways to gain an edge in sports betting. Many ways to skin the cat.

Programmers have been doing analyses of handicapping trends for 50 years. Welcome to 1975.

Look goofball, if programmers identified trends 50 years ago, in 1975...power to them. But that does me, nor anyone else any good today does it?

I asked your opinion of a current identified trend or play, based on how the game is played TODAY with only 3 preseason games and starters playing very little.

That is all. I asked your opinion. And you couldn't answer that simple question without some completely irrelevant comment about something from 50 years ago.

And THAT is redietz in a nutshell.

[Half Smoke]

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this is from google, AI - it's not just me that has noticed this - I posted some of this earlier - this post has some more info


"AI Overview

Betting on every NFL underdog during the first two weeks of the season is a high-risk strategy that has historically been profitable against the spread (ATS), but often results in losses on moneyline bets. The strategy is based on the premise that betting lines are most uncertain at the beginning of the season, leading to frequent upsets and covers by less-favored teams.

Against the spread (ATS)

Blindly betting on underdogs against the spread in the NFL has often been a profitable strategy, particularly in the opening weeks of the season. In the first few weeks, large underdogs (6 points or more) have been especially successful at covering the spread.

Greater uncertainty: The first few weeks of the NFL season have higher uncertainty. Bettors and oddsmakers are still determining which teams are good, which are bad, and what personnel changes mean for performance. This ambiguity can lead to less accurate spreads, which creates opportunities for underdogs to outperform expectations. "




https://www.google.com/search?q=bett...hrome&ie=UTF-8
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[redietz]

Dietz, you are so hell bent on trying to discredit and put down anyone doing things differently that you.

Get over it!

There are many ways to gain an edge in sports betting. Many ways to skin the cat.

Programmers have been doing analyses of handicapping trends for 50 years. Welcome to 1975.

Look goofball, if programmers identified trends 50 years ago, in 1975...power to them. But that does me, nor anyone else any good today does it?

I asked your opinion of a current identified trend or play, based on how the game is played TODAY with only 3 preseason games and starters playing very little.

That is all. I asked your opinion. And you couldn't answer that simple question without some completely irrelevant comment about something from 50 years ago.

And THAT is redietz in a nutshell.

One of my partners is in high stakes LMS contests. His modus operandi is that early-season NFL favorites are all just guesses. So he buys multiple entries and splits early toss-up games instead of committing to a favorite. By splitting toss-up games, he saves the best teams for later and avoids taking favorites whose money lines are largely based from the previous year.

As to the game last night, I would never bet ON a SB-winning team in their opener the following season. Plus there was a one-point line move on the game, and I never bet an NFL team with a one-point move on them. Simple rules.

In addition, I use a basic value system that assesses public support for teams that also vetoed taking the Eagles last night. It suggested, marginally, the Cowboys.

Now, did I want the Cowboys? No, I did not. Too much money likes the Cowboys, so the line in a season-opener is usually shaded in such a way that betting on them results in an unfair line. What should the line have been with a SB winner at home facing a losing team suddenly minus their best player? Well, not seven. Was it, as Todd likes to say, a sucker line? I don't know. Maybe at seven it was.

So what happens? It turns into your basic NFL freak show. The best defender on the field decides he's not on camera for the first Monday Night game and plants a phlegm ball on Prescott, and an official happens to walk up to them just as he does so. Looked like blocking for a Broadway play. Then you have a hundred yards in penalties (half of which were questionable) assessed on the Eagles IN A HALF. Then you have a lightning delay. Complete zoo.

And that's why 85% of my total wagering is on college football.

Now, did I make money on the game? Yes, i did, and I have the receipts. One of your favorite sites, YouWager, suddenly strong-armed me to close all my open teasers, so i did by taking the Eagles on half and the Cowboys on half. I wasn't happy about it, but Ka-ching. And I put lunch money (breakfast money, really) on Shipley to have more than 11 1/2 yards rushing.

And you have misinterpreted my trendsvestite degree-of-disdain. Some trends exist because there are good reasons why they exist. Others are, as statisticians like to say, artifacts. If you can't discern reasons, that doesn't mean there aren't any (obviously).

There was a stretch in the 90's and early 2000's where SEC teams had awful non-conference ATS records. Well, there were reasons for that. And Bill Yeoman, back when he coached the Houston Cougars, had terrible non-conference records to open seasons. Well, there were reasons for that.

Would I bulk bet underdogs to open this NFL season? No I would not. Half the games have lines where the favorite is barely a favorite, and the label could switch, as I posted weeks ago. And the Monday Night favorite did switch, so what are you supposed to bet? The opening line underdog, the Vikings, or the current underdog, the Bears?

[Half Smoke]

so what are you supposed to bet? The opening line underdog, the Vikings, or the current underdog, the Bears?

this has already been discussed

the data is based on the closing line most common to most of the books

if a bettor doesn't get the exact line from closing it may hurt him or it may help him - and even more likely it didn't matter at all - no way to tell and not at all likely to make any real difference in the long run

but everybody gets it - you don't like the strategy - that's cool - when it comes to betting sports everybody won't agree on everything

btw for what it's worth - based on the comments from you that I've read - I do think you know a great deal about handicapping, particularly football -

I also agree with mickey's points that computer modeling (such as what Billy Walters has done) is superior to what any individual can accomplish, even a very informed individual, betting or recommending bets based on his opinion

computer modeling combined with the vast amounts of statistical data that was compiled and analyzed easily identified a great many more plays than any well informed individual could possible uncover


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[redietz]

so what are you supposed to bet? The opening line underdog, the Vikings, or the current underdog, the Bears?

this has already been discussed

the data is based on the closing line most common to most of the books

if a bettor doesn't get the exact line from closing it may hurt him or it may help him - and even more likely it didn't matter at all - no way to tell and not at all likely to make any real difference in the long run

but everybody gets it - you don't like the strategy - that's cool - when it comes to betting sports everybody won't agree on everything

btw for what it's worth - based on the comments from you that I've read - I do think you know a great deal about handicapping, particularly football -

I also agree with mickey's points that computer modeling (such as what Billy Walters has done) is superior to what any individual can accomplish, even a very informed individual, betting or recommending bets based on his opinion

computer modeling combined with the vast amounts of statistical data that was compiled and analyzed easily identified a great many more plays than any well informed individual could possible uncover


.

Well, how do you know the closing line of "most books?" And how do you get action in on that "closing" line when it may exist for all of 10 seconds, if that? That's silly. How do you do that in the real world?

By using true "closing lines" for your definition, you are using a line that is not available 99.99% of the time leading up to it. There's not much utility to that.

In addition, haven't you ever seen "closing lines" as listed by vegasinsider or whomever that do not actually match the in-the-moment closing lines at the brick-and-mortar sports book? It happens. Occasionally, the real location gets action at the end, and the "closing" number featured online is not the actual closing number on property. When Computer Sports World published their data bases, the closing numbers they listed, for example, were not exact matches for the on site closing lines.

You are kind of missing the point with Billy Walters. He hired literally dozens of handicappers over time, some with competing and different programs and some without. If the models don't agree, and they usually do not, then what do you do?

Discussing this stuff with you guys is senseless. You simply have no lay of the actual land. You do realize Playbook has been doing ongoing 24/7 comprehensive data base stat searches for literally 40 years? And Marc Lawrence Jr. trained specifically for this and is a programmer?

[Half Smoke]

Well, how do you know the closing line of "most books?" And how do you get action in on that "closing" line when it may exist for all of 10 seconds, if that? That's silly. How do you do that in the real world?

one more time and I'm done

you can see the lines of a great many books on the internet very close to closing time - BUT YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT BEFORE YOU MADE THE COMMENT - as does anybody who follows NFL betting

if you don't get the exact closing line every single time sometimes it may help you, sometimes it may hurt you, but most of the time it won't matter - and is very unlikely to make a difference in the long run

i.e. - the Cowboys game yesterday - the closing line might have been + 8 or 8.5 for the Boys depending on the book - idk - covers.com quoted both 8 and 8.5 - I didn't actually follow it -

it wouldn't have mattered either way if you bet the dog and that is quite common

I'm not trying to compete with Marc Lawrence Jr. - I have no doubt he has a lot more data than me and a lot more useful info than me -

KJ asked you for a current trend - what was your answer - something from the 90s and 2000s - nothing for now - oh yeah, I almost forgot - something about Bill Yeoman who retired in 1986

wow________!!!________thanks very much for that useful info__________________(-:/

you also bragged about the bets you won - AFTER THE GAME IS OVER - no use to anybody now -

how about giving everybody your picks for this Sunday and Monday BEFORE THE GAMES START - not gonna happen - no chance

or hows about some trends relevant to Sunday and Monday's games - not gonna happen - no chance

oh, wait, I almost forgot - you want money to give out your picks - good luck with that -

I'm outta here - feel free to get the last word - I just don't care anymore

don't wanna communicate with you anymore - never should have started - my bad - won't happen again

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[kewlJ]

I am betting more on this"trend" than my accounts at online books have in them, so the overflow is at multiple Vegas books. I bet The Cowboys (almost killed me) @ only +7 and chargers@ +3 before I left Vegas for a week. Now heading home to bet the remainingfirst week games at several books tomorrow.

I asked Redeitz, his opinion, but really wasn'tt that interested. I though he would probably poo poo this whole 1st two week play. I am convinced it is +EV and hitting it hard despite what the great Red says.

[Half Smoke]

I am betting more on this"trend" than my accounts at online books have in them, so the overflow is at multiple Vegas books. I bet The Cowboys (almost killed me) @ only +7 and chargers@ +3 before I left Vegas for a week. Now heading home to bet the remainingfirst week games at several books tomorrow.

I asked Redeitz, his opinion, but really wasn'tt that interested. I though he would probably poo poo this whole 1st two week play. I am convinced it is +EV and hitting it hard despite what the great Red says.

good luck with that KJ

some more AI from Google indicating that faves tend to get bet down late - that works well with the strategy of getting the best underdog line as close to gametime as possible:


"AI Overview

In general, NFL favorites tend to get bet down late in the week as casual bettors, or "the public," place their wagers closer to game time. The money from these late, public bets often pushes the point spread higher for the favored team.

Bet underdogs late: If you want to bet on the underdog, you should wait until closer to game time to get a more attractive point spread after the public has moved the line in your favor.

How betting patterns influence line movement

Public vs. "Sharp" money: There is a distinction in the sports betting world between the money placed by the public and by sharp bettors, who are seasoned, professional gamblers.
Early vs. late action: The first bets placed on a game, often from sharp bettors, are placed early in the week. By contrast, the majority of bets from the casual public are placed later in the week, closer to game time.
Line balancing: Sportsbooks aim to "balance their books" by having a relatively equal amount of money wagered on both sides of a bet. When heavy public action comes in late on a favorite, sportsbooks may move the line to encourage betting on the underdog and reduce their financial liability.

"Fading the public": Savvy bettors often "fade the public"—betting against the popular side—to take advantage of inflated lines. By betting an underdog late, a sharp bettor can get a more favorable point spread after the public has driven up the line for the favorite. "


https://www.google.com/search?q=do+n...hrome&ie=UTF-8

[kewlJ]

Thanks HS. I appreciate that you shared this play last year. And have been waiting to hit it hard.

My rough calculations show about a 9% advantage over the 15 years. Now maybe this will be one of the 3 16-16 years that have occurred and will lose vig. Or maybe this will be the first actual losing year. But I am convinced it is +EV.

[Half Smoke]

Thanks HS. I appreciate that you shared this play last year. And have been waiting to hit it hard.

My rough calculations show about a 9% advantage over the 15 years. Now maybe this will be one of the 3 16-16 years that have occurred and will lose vig. Or maybe this will be the first actual losing year. But I am convinced it is +EV.

unfortunately the r.o.i. from the past 500 games in the first 2 weeks ats that I tracked is not that large

underdogs won about 55% which equates to an r.o.i. of about 5%

also, you mentioned betting the games tomorrow which is Saturday - if you don't mind a suggestion - would you consider waiting until about noon on Sunday__? - or maybe the Vegas books are too busy then idk - I'm not a Vegas guy - - the ploppies tend to bet the faves down late per my previous post - just a thought

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[kewlJ]

That is fine. I might have calculated for the last 5 years. No matter. We are heading for a 19-13 or 20-12 year this year that will be worth 15-20 k to me. (Wishful prediction)

[kewlJ]

One big difference in me and the great Red. No past posting from me. I tell people what angle I am playing, whether overs in baseball for 6-8 weeks late June through early/ mid August. Or this 1st 2 weeks NFL play. Things I believe are +EV. I might win. I might lose. But I believe my wagers are +EV and I say what I am betting beforehand.

The great Red comes up with "I made money on open ended teasers after the fact. Never mentioning anything before the game. I guess that is a "tout" trick.

[AxelWolf]

Good luck to anyone betting the first 2 weeks road dog play this year. I don't have time to mess with it.

As allways, Line shop, Line Shop, line shop. I didn't have time last year and that 1/2 point cost me thousands.

[kewlJ]

Good luck to anyone betting the first 2 weeks road dog play this year. I don't have time to mess with it.

As allways, Line shop, Line Shop, line shop. I didn't have time last year and that 1/2 point cost me thousands.

Yeah I got burned a bit on that too. Forget the details but I think I had a game each week that some bets pushed and some lost on same game and second week some won and some pushed.

That is going to happen. Like HS says might work for you. Might work against. Evens out in the end. Now if you have the time....by all means...line shop.