Damn right I have an angle. It is the 150% to 200% bonus that I get for every deposit. Then all I have to do is get through the rollover amounts without eating all the bonus money. And the sooner I do that (volume betting) the sooner I am through that cycle and onto the next cycle with a new bonus.Originally Posted by redietz
Multiply by 6 books at 3 or 4 cycles a year per book and here we are.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Originally Posted by kewlJDamn right I have an angle. It is the 150% to 200% bonus that I get for every deposit. Then all I have to do is get through the rollover amounts without eating all the bonus money. And the sooner I do that (volume betting) the sooner I am through that cycle and onto the next cycle with a new bonus.Originally Posted by redietz
Multiply by 6 books at 3 or 4 cycles a year per book and here we are.
Truly amazing. Nothing like working grandma and the third cousin for those sports book bonuses.
Yep, that thar "volume betting" is the ticket to bonus perpetuity and living on the Las Vegas strip.
Good try Dietz. But wrong again. Every account I have is in my own name. I haven't even used my BF's name (yet), but might at some point as he has no interest and will never bet sports.Originally Posted by redietz
Many Ap's do use friend and family though, including you buddy Munchkin. There is nothing wrong with that as long as the person you are using has no interest.
Bob Dietz, you are wrong about just about everything now. Because you are reaching, just like the trolls and haters. My biggest regret on this forum is that I believed and supported you for as long as I did.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Kew, have you yet figured out why so many people mock you? Your lies and denials are so obvious, and you only complain and threaten to quit forums after certain posters expose you for the waste of life that you are.Originally Posted by kewlJGood try Dietz. But wrong again. Every account I have is in my own name. I haven't even used my BF's name (yet), but might at some point as he has no interest and will never bet sports.Originally Posted by redietz
Many Ap's do use friend and family though, including you buddy Munchkin. There is nothing wrong with that as long as the person you are using has no interest.
Bob Dietz, you are wrong about just about everything now. Because you are reaching, just like the trolls and haters. My biggest regret on this forum is that I believed and supported you for as long as I did.
But dont stop because of me--I absolutely LOVE watching weak losers like you suffer.
The math of tewlj's bonus whoring strategy is coming into focus.Originally Posted by redietz
If his earnings from deposit bonuses is approx $60K per year, then that's averaging $2500 per cycle, for 4 cycles, at each of 6 online books.
If the bonuses are 2x the deposits, then deposits average $1250 per book, at each of 6 books for 4 cycles, in order to make $60K in bonus money available for the year.
The unknown variable is the wagering requirements at each book, per cycle, to release the $2500 bonuses for withdrawls.
Assuming break-even wagering results, what's the total wager required per cycle to make $15K of bonus available to withdraw?
Is it reasonable to assume break-even results for 2 years?
Would betting both sides, using competing sites, work to come close enough to break-even?
Is it reasonable to assume that online books will allow clients to hit them for $2500 in bonus money, without a loss of any deposited funds, for 8 consecutive cycles?
I love it when a guy accuses me of lying and then proves he knows nothing about what he is talking about.
a 200% is NOT 2x what you original deposit is (I wish it was). because the bonus is given as free play, it is only equal to your original deposit. Although at the beginning, the first couple cycles I was getting much better bonuses. Now it is just the standard advertised bonuses at all but one book.
My deposits are much larger than the number you came up with. And yes if you broke even for 2 years, you would not make money. The vig playing through the rollover would eat through the bonus money. You have to find a way to do a little better than 50/50.
And there are a number of ways to do that. Find trends that work, like I have done each of the past summers betting overs when temps are 90 degree plus in baseball. Here is a small trend from this weekend. Over the past 5-6 years (small sample size) teams starting 0-2 have covered 70% of time in week 3. So there were (8) 0-2 teams this week. 5 covered.
You can find lots of trends like that. Not all work, but many do. I also run simulations from several different simulation sites. They do pretty well. And I check the covers.com picks, Dan Druffs picks, Daly from Druffs Poker sites NFL picks (he is only good with NFL) and Joe Fortenbaugh from espn. I especially like it when several of these sources pick the same team.
With college basketball and NBA, I look at pace stats. Temas that have a low pace number will slow the game down and that will be reflected in the totals, but often they are still too high. And especially if you bet the halftime over, where there isn't an extra 20 points scored in the last 2 minutes with all the fouling.
There are also promotions like half juice if you bet during a certain period. It is usually Thursday or Friday for football. Half juice is a big deal. Unfortunately I only have 2 books that do that. But some others give points for your bests just like brick and mortar casinos and the points can be turned into free bets.
It is a grind, but there is a small advantage there. Axelwolf told the forum that a couple years ago. THAT is why I made the jump.
Also you don't just withdraw all your money as soon as you get through the bonus. You withdraw most over a few weeks. Then you make a new deposit with a new bonus and added to whatever balance you have remaining and you are off and running again.
I think I have had about 19 cycles during my 2 years. All ended positive except 2. One was just a slightly losing cycle. The second was a winning cycle but the book refused to pay the winnings. That is when you find a new replacement book. That pissed me off, but apparently is part of the cost of this play. If it begins to happen to frequently, then you are probably done, with the name/address you are using.
One other thing belly. This idea of $1000 a week for two years. THAT is NOT how you measure it. It is about cycles. Same as you don't measure blackjack results by the week. The expected value is measured long-term. The results have to be measured long-term.
Your welcome for the education.
Last edited by kewlJ; 09-21-2025 at 05:23 PM.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
A couple things I forgot to mention.
The margins are very slim. 50/50 can make a slight profit if you can cut down the vigs some. And yes you can play different sides at different books. But Not the same exact line. You find a line 1 or 2 points different (in your favor) or vig that is different amounts which will cut down the total vig of both bets.
I have always played very slim margins. Card counting is a very slim margin. That is why most APs dont bother with it anymore. I am fine with slim margins. As long as you have the bankroll and the time and patients you will make money.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Just to be clear...Originally Posted by kewlJ
If you deposit $1000, then what is the bonus?
I found this explanation on the caesars online casino
4. After registering for an account, make your first real money deposit of at least $10 to receive a casino bonus equal to 100% of your initial deposit amount (up to a maximum bonus of $1,000)
6. As an example, if you deposited $1,000 and receive a $1,000 bonus
If you withdrew $60K in bonus money per year, and there are 4 cycles in a year, then that's an average of $15K per cycle.Originally Posted by kewlJ
If you had $15K in bonus available in a cycle, spread over 6 books, then that's an average of $2500 per book.
What's the minimum deposit required to be awarded a $2500 bonus?
If the bonus offer is a 1-to-1 deposit match (which would be 100%...not 200%) then why would your deposits need to be much larger than $2500?
That is just nonsense. How many cycles represent the "long-term"?Originally Posted by kewlJ
Results can be expressed as an average per week, per month, per quarter, or whatever time period you choose.
You just reported your bonus earnings as a yearly average, same for your blackjack earnings...an average.
Are you claiming that you have been winning better than 50% or your sports bets for 2 years?Originally Posted by kewlJ
The bonus would be $2000 in Free Play. BUT that is like a 1 use match play chip. You only get to keep what you win.Originally Posted by coach belly
So if you make a $100 free play bet @ odds of +100 (no Vig) and the bet wins, you only win $100. You lose $100 of Free play.
That makes the Free play bets and the bonus worth 50% of the $2000 or $1000 (same as deposit).
Look, I have explained it to you belly. Not my fault if you are clueless.
The important thing is you are playing on a very slim margin. the rollover requirements are set up so that if you win 50% of your bets while playing rollover, you will eat up most of the bonus. So you have to find ways to 1) cut down the Vig and 2) do slightly better than 50/50. And I have explained how I do that.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
And....no matter what you do, If you keep winning you will get cut off. I have been cut off 2 books so far and I fully expect at some point I will be cut off all that I currently play and won't be able to get a decent bonus under my name. That is when I will decide how I want to proceed or if I even do. This was always going to be a temporary supplemental play for me.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
By the way, this is bad math on your part. Now wonder you don't understand advantage play.Originally Posted by coach belly
There are 3, 4, 5 (generally about 4) cycles at each of 4,5 different sports books. That is like 16-20 cycles a year. I would say 15-16 is accurate.
The reason the numbers vary is my first year I was using 4 books, Then I lost 2, but have added 3 new ones since. Currently working off 5, but I think I am about done at one.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
LOL...I used the numbers you provided earlier.Originally Posted by kewlJ
Originally Posted by kewlJ
So you multiplied 4 books x 4 cycles per book and got 16. but that is for a year. For 2 years it would be 32. Then divided $120,000 (for 2 years) by 32 and got $15,000 ???? Like I said, funny math. Coach belly math.
Anyway, I am done with you. You say you don't believe me (in anything I say) and then you prove that you don't even understand the subject matter that you don't believe. WTF???
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I think you are confused.Originally Posted by kewlJ
You deposit $1000 and receive a $2000 bonus, so you have $3000 in your account.
If you bet the $1000 deposited cash, and $2000 bonus cash...and win, then how much bonus cash do you have in your account?
Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by Dan Druff
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
I have 1 book that does it that way. But their bonuses are smaller.Originally Posted by coach bellyI think you are confused.Originally Posted by kewlJ
You deposit $1000 and receive a $2000 bonus, so you have $3000 in your account.
If you bet the $1000 deposited cash, and $2000 bonus cash...and win, then how much bonus cash do you have in your account?
The rest have separate accounts. One for your deposited money which is the regular account and a second account for the free play balance. so when you bet $100 from the free play account, the wager will say free play wager and if you win only the winnings go into the regular account.
Dietz can you explain this to your fellow troll, who doesn't believe me, but has no idea what he doesn't believe.
A 200% bonus is really worth 100% of your actual bonus. By doing it this way they can claim to be offering a bigger bonus. but that bigger bonus is only worth 5-% of what it says. Just like a Matchplay chip (one time use) is only worth 50% of face value. (47% actually) (different amounts for different games I guess.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
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