I love it when a guy accuses me of lying and then proves he knows nothing about what he is talking about.
a 200% is NOT 2x what you original deposit is (I wish it was). because the bonus is given as free play, it is only equal to your original deposit. Although at the beginning, the first couple cycles I was getting much better bonuses. Now it is just the standard advertised bonuses at all but one book.
My deposits are much larger than the number you came up with. And yes if you broke even for 2 years, you would not make money. The vig playing through the rollover would eat through the bonus money. You have to find a way to do a little better than 50/50.
And there are a number of ways to do that. Find trends that work, like I have done each of the past summers betting overs when temps are 90 degree plus in baseball. Here is a small trend from this weekend. Over the past 5-6 years (small sample size) teams starting 0-2 have covered 70% of time in week 3. So there were (8) 0-2 teams this week. 5 covered.
You can find lots of trends like that. Not all work, but many do. I also run simulations from several different simulation sites. They do pretty well. And I check the covers.com picks, Dan Druffs picks, Daly from Druffs Poker sites NFL picks (he is only good with NFL) and Joe Fortenbaugh from espn. I especially like it when several of these sources pick the same team.
With college basketball and NBA, I look at pace stats. Temas that have a low pace number will slow the game down and that will be reflected in the totals, but often they are still too high. And especially if you bet the halftime over, where there isn't an extra 20 points scored in the last 2 minutes with all the fouling.
There are also promotions like half juice if you bet during a certain period. It is usually Thursday or Friday for football. Half juice is a big deal. Unfortunately I only have 2 books that do that. But some others give points for your bests just like brick and mortar casinos and the points can be turned into free bets.
It is a grind, but there is a small advantage there. Axelwolf told the forum that a couple years ago. THAT is why I made the jump.
Also you don't just withdraw all your money as soon as you get through the bonus. You withdraw most over a few weeks. Then you make a new deposit with a new bonus and added to whatever balance you have remaining and you are off and running again.
I think I have had about 19 cycles during my 2 years. All ended positive except 2. One was just a slightly losing cycle. The second was a winning cycle but the book refused to pay the winnings. That is when you find a new replacement book. That pissed me off, but apparently is part of the cost of this play. If it begins to happen to frequently, then you are probably done, with the name/address you are using.
One other thing belly. This idea of $1000 a week for two years. THAT is NOT how you measure it. It is about cycles. Same as you don't measure blackjack results by the week. The expected value is measured long-term. The results have to be measured long-term.
Your welcome for the education.
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