Dan Druff's 2025-26 NFL picks

[redietz]

Surprised how Rodgers has been okay so far. I thought this season would be a complete fail, given his age and his clear regression in prior years.

Of course, it was easy to play with confidence when the team was facing Carson Wentz.

Glad to see the Texans win my last Survivor ticket without drama, and both of my spread bets winning. This puts me in the black in NFL this season -- finally.

I went 2-0, +1.93 units. so now I'm 7-7, +1.43 units overall.

As I mentioned before, with all the late-and-close losses, I've actually picked a lot better than that, so I feel like I've got a good shot at finishing this season a winner.

I'll disagree on two points:

1) I saw no real regression by Rodgers in terms of actually throwing the football. He can no longer run as he did, but his boots and sprint-outs seem fine. Stats are just stats. Who you are playing with determines what "kind of player you are (i.e. what kind of stats you have)" more than people realize. If, after this season, you try to analyze WR stats, for example, you could interpret Ja'Marr Chase, Ridley, and Tyreek Hill as overpriced. Their QBs determine their numbers and their effects. That ties into:

2) Wentz is probably as good as (or better than) the starting Viking QB at this point. Jefferson, who had not done anything until Sunday, might agree.

[Dan Druff]

6:30am PT game:

Cleveland +161 vs Minnesota (London)
Cleveland/Minnesota - Under 35.5 -110

Other games:
Baltimore vs Houston - Under 40.5 -110
NY Jets +100 vs Dallas (+1 -110 ok)


BTW my Survivor pick is Indy

[redietz]

I split my two Survivors. One has Indy. One has Arizona. I don't love either one.

Viking offensive line has been ravaged. We'll see what they can do.

Given the two totals Todd took, I'm tempted to mention a rule I almost never break. In any event, I need Over 33 as the back half of a teaser for Hou/Baltimore. That is all I did today outside of low-cost fantasy football.

[redietz]

Okay, with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter, my teaser is a winner.

Now let's see if anyone can guess the rule of thumb I used regarding teasing Overs in the NFL. It had two qualifying plays today which happened to oppose both of Todd's Unders. I used only the second of the plays, which I plugged in on Thursday as the back half of a teaser. I should probably be shot for not using the Viking/Brown teased Over, but such is life. I was overly concerned with injuries to the Viking offensive line.

If anyone guesses it, I will award the Marvel Comics famous no-prize as compensation. If no one guesses it, I will keep the formula a secret, along with the address of The Riddler, who originally came up with this angle.

[redietz]

One of my LMS entries bit the dust, with a miraculous collapse.

But one survives. What I wanted to report to Todd was that, using the biggest sample size I have -- the BetOnline LMS -- we are to be commended for having any surviving entries. BetOnline began with 23K entries, and is down to 1750 pretty damned quickly. Stunning, really, to have 90+ percent gone this quickly.