Dan Druff's 2025-26 NFL picks

[redietz]

Surprised how Rodgers has been okay so far. I thought this season would be a complete fail, given his age and his clear regression in prior years.

Of course, it was easy to play with confidence when the team was facing Carson Wentz.

Glad to see the Texans win my last Survivor ticket without drama, and both of my spread bets winning. This puts me in the black in NFL this season -- finally.

I went 2-0, +1.93 units. so now I'm 7-7, +1.43 units overall.

As I mentioned before, with all the late-and-close losses, I've actually picked a lot better than that, so I feel like I've got a good shot at finishing this season a winner.

I'll disagree on two points:

1) I saw no real regression by Rodgers in terms of actually throwing the football. He can no longer run as he did, but his boots and sprint-outs seem fine. Stats are just stats. Who you are playing with determines what "kind of player you are (i.e. what kind of stats you have)" more than people realize. If, after this season, you try to analyze WR stats, for example, you could interpret Ja'Marr Chase, Ridley, and Tyreek Hill as overpriced. Their QBs determine their numbers and their effects. That ties into:

2) Wentz is probably as good as (or better than) the starting Viking QB at this point. Jefferson, who had not done anything until Sunday, might agree.

[Dan Druff]

6:30am PT game:

Cleveland +161 vs Minnesota (London)
Cleveland/Minnesota - Under 35.5 -110

Other games:
Baltimore vs Houston - Under 40.5 -110
NY Jets +100 vs Dallas (+1 -110 ok)


BTW my Survivor pick is Indy

[redietz]

I split my two Survivors. One has Indy. One has Arizona. I don't love either one.

Viking offensive line has been ravaged. We'll see what they can do.

Given the two totals Todd took, I'm tempted to mention a rule I almost never break. In any event, I need Over 33 as the back half of a teaser for Hou/Baltimore. That is all I did today outside of low-cost fantasy football.

[redietz]

Okay, with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter, my teaser is a winner.

Now let's see if anyone can guess the rule of thumb I used regarding teasing Overs in the NFL. It had two qualifying plays today which happened to oppose both of Todd's Unders. I used only the second of the plays, which I plugged in on Thursday as the back half of a teaser. I should probably be shot for not using the Viking/Brown teased Over, but such is life. I was overly concerned with injuries to the Viking offensive line.

If anyone guesses it, I will award the Marvel Comics famous no-prize as compensation. If no one guesses it, I will keep the formula a secret, along with the address of The Riddler, who originally came up with this angle.

[redietz]

One of my LMS entries bit the dust, with a miraculous collapse.

But one survives. What I wanted to report to Todd was that, using the biggest sample size I have -- the BetOnline LMS -- we are to be commended for having any surviving entries. BetOnline began with 23K entries, and is down to 1750 pretty damned quickly. Stunning, really, to have 90+ percent gone this quickly.

[Dan Druff]

One of my LMS entries bit the dust, with a miraculous collapse.

But one survives. What I wanted to report to Todd was that, using the biggest sample size I have -- the BetOnline LMS -- we are to be commended for having any surviving entries. BetOnline began with 23K entries, and is down to 1750 pretty damned quickly. Stunning, really, to have 90+ percent gone this quickly.

Looks like Circa is a much tougher field than BOL, which doesn't surprise me.

Only 75.6% of Circa tickets have died thus far -- far less than the 92.4% gone at BOL.

The fact that only 1.9% of tickets were fired on the Eagles Thursday -- despite a touchdown favorite line -- shows you how sharp the Circa field has gotten. Even last year, the field was a lot weaker.

It seems like most Circa players have the basic strategy down at this point -- go for home favorites of decent size, try to pick teams without much future value, and watch the future schedule so you don't accidentally pick yourself into being stuck using underdogs late in the game.

I'm going ploppy style with Green Bay today.

[Dan Druff]

Okay, with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter, my teaser is a winner.

Now let's see if anyone can guess the rule of thumb I used regarding teasing Overs in the NFL. It had two qualifying plays today which happened to oppose both of Todd's Unders. I used only the second of the plays, which I plugged in on Thursday as the back half of a teaser. I should probably be shot for not using the Viking/Brown teased Over, but such is life. I was overly concerned with injuries to the Viking offensive line.

If anyone guesses it, I will award the Marvel Comics famous no-prize as compensation. If no one guesses it, I will keep the formula a secret, along with the address of The Riddler, who originally came up with this angle.

I've never heard of teasing overs, though perhaps it could be +EV if the total line is low enough.

[Dan Druff]

I lost all 4 picks last week.

Honestly I should've won both in the Cleveland game, but that's the way the ball bounces.

I'll post my picks for today shortly...

[Dan Druff]

Seattle -110 at Jacksonville
Carolina +145 vs Dallas
Split bet: NY Jets vs Denver (neutral) +7 -105 / NY Jets +299
Arizona at Indianapolis Under 46.5 -110

Survivor: Packers

[redietz]

I also used the Packers. Could not make a case for saving them or using any other team in this spot.

Won for the week, which I'd be proud of except I middled a game and if I had not, I would have lost. So kudos to Missouri State and MTSU, which almost guaranteed a winning week as the first game played on Wednesday.

Yesterday was ugly, as I teased TCU, which gave up two defensive touchdowns. While that kind of thing may happen regularly in the NFL, in college, if you give up one defensive/special teams TD in a game, you have roughly a 12% chance of covering. You give up two, and you have about a 1.2% chance of covering.

But I survived the week with a profit. I have not done the final tallies yet, but had I lost with Hawaii (late) the week would have been pretty much a wash despite the middle. But Hawaii got it done, so that's seven winning weeks out of eight. I will take it.

By the way, two gigantic angles that I normally use point to the Cleveland Browns today. I refuse to take them. So we'll see if I was smart or stupid to pass. Usually I turn out to have been stupid. A team as publicly dysfunctional as the Browns is almost always a huge PR value. And I still cannot pull the trigger. If anyone can figure out why I am supposed to take the Browns today, using publicly available angles, I will award a No Prize. But nobody will.

[Dan Druff]

Tennessee +170 at Vegas

(last minute)

[redietz]

You know, if the Steelers make the playoffs, they need a nickname. They have no speed whatsoever on offense, so it should be something the opposite of that Rams "Greatest Show on Turf."

[redietz]

Moved up to 22nd in Heritage's Race to the Super Bowl. Out of a couple thousand. Not sure why I moved up -- I was terrible. So I guess everyone else was worse. Need both Overs today, which I hate. I have pretty much done everything wrong and am 22nd. Very odd. There was one week I did a good job. Every other week has been pretty lousy.

[kewlJ]

Tennessee +170 at Vegas

(last minute)

I looked at this too, but decided not to fire (as you like to say). If I had seen that you were picking it (didn't see until too late) I might have tagged along.

BUT really trying to pick a winner among 2 absolutely terrible teams is just a no win situation. (vomiting emoji).

as a side note, I was thinking if the Raiders lost this one, it might end Pete Carrols failed tenure. Not really Mark Davis's style to fire a coach mid-season (Gruden was a special situation with a lot of pressure to do so), but I just had a feeling he might say "enough" kind of early with this one. I guess we will never know. At least for a couple more weeks.

[Dan Druff]

Last week:
Seattle -110 at Jacksonville - WON +0.91
Carolina +145 vs Dallas - WON +1.45
Split bet: NY Jets vs Denver (neutral) +7 -105 / NY Jets +299 - WON SPREAD, LOST ML -0.05
Arizona at Indianapolis Under 46.5 -110 - LOST -1.00
Tennessee +170 at Las Vegas - LOST -1.00

Total: 2.5-2.5 (+0.31 units)

-------------



This week:

New Orleans +183 at Chicago
New Orleans/Chicago - Under 45.5 -115
NY Jets vs Carolina - Under 41 -110
Dallas -119 vs Washington (-1 ok)
Minnesota +110 vs Philadelphia

Survivor: KC

[redietz]

I also used KC. I would have preferred to save them. I have the option of switching until game time, so will consider using Denver.

Biggest LMS sample I see is BetOnline, with 1358 left out of 23K.

I am ahead for the week heading into needing Over 33 of NYG/Den as the back half of two teasers. Will hedge at least 40% of it. If it loses, the week will be a wash heading into night games. I tortured myself yesterday. Had Over 34 Missouri/Auburn teaser. Was so disgusted at half (missed FGs) with the score 10-7, I hedged 80% of it trying to middle with an Under 20 1/2 second half. Game went to OT 17-17 after Mizzou got knocked out of FG range in the final minute with a sack and a penalty. Lost the hedge with 23-17 final.

[redietz]

Ugly, ugly, ugly. Hedged three-quarters of my NYG/Denver Over at halftime with Under 20 1/2. Used KC, thankfully, in the LMS and did not try to be tricky and save them for a rainy day.

Twelve percent of LMS entrants used Denver, so that will be interesting.

[redietz]

NYG/Denver game was ridiculous. When I eventually get knocked out of my LMS contests, I will look back and blame it on not using the Broncos this week.

Denver winning saves me the legwork of looking up who the last NFL team was to lose after scoring 30 points in a quarter. I will leave than to trivia buffs.

[redietz]

I have been terrible in Heritage's Race to the Super Bowl contest, but unbelievably sit in 16th place out of a couple thousand heading into tonight's games. I have no idea who people are taking, but evidently they are not doing well.

One person has thus far, for this week, gotten all the winners correct and gotten the totals correct for the prime time games also. That was something.

[redietz]

This is the last I'll report on this. I moved up into a mega-way tie for seventh. I was one game off the weekly prize, which was three people at 18-2 for the week. For those with Heritage accounts, just go to the Contests link and follow along the Race to the Super Bowl. I'm listed as redietz.

I won this about 10 years ago. My superior half tied for the title the following year, I think with four other folks.