Professional Sportsbetting

[coach belly]

Am I catching this correctly?

No you are not catching it correctly.

I haven't even called tewlj a liar in 5000 posts, and he is a proven and admitted liar.

Now you are a proven liar as well.

[coach belly]

am I mistaken?

Of course you are mistaken...you fool.

Random means occurring by chance, done without any definite plan, purpose, or pattern.

The result of an aimed shot is not a random occurrence.

[smurgerburger]

am I mistaken?

Of course you are mistaken...you fool.

Random means occurring by chance, done without any definite plan, purpose, or pattern.

The result of an aimed shot is not a random occurrence.

In the mathematical sense, which is the sense under discussion?

[Garnabby]

am I mistaken?

Of course you are mistaken...you fool.

Random means occurring by chance, done without any definite plan, purpose, or pattern.

The result of an aimed shot is not a random occurrence.

In the mathematical sense, which is the sense under discussion?

Depends on how you look at, or perceive, probability, which has come to be based into two camps, namely, frequentist, or, Bayesian.

In Bayesian statistics, an unknown parameter is considered a random variable to represent uncertainty, rather than a fixed, unknown value. This means that a parameter's value isn't inherently fixed but is treated as having a probability distribution that can be updated with new data. This contrasts with a purely random event, which is unpredictable and has no underlying deterministic mechanism, as in classical probability.

I like to look at randomness as what greases the probabilities, as an unbiased lubrication of life. It's the Bayesian perspective that treats quantum coherence as already determined (deterministic), with an underlying method (mechanism) to it, that there's no smearing or other mystery to it after all - seemingly simpler, but more complicated in actuality.

Certainly can't fault Coach for the popular notion of randomness.

[Garnabby]

Depends on how you look at, or perceive, probability, which has come to be based into two camps, namely, frequentist, or, Bayesian.

---> Antipseudohypertantricautopyronecrotranshomopedosa domasobeastiality.

https://anagram-solver.net/Depends%2....?partial=true

[accountinquestion]

I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.

It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.

You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every...single...play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.

You should never leave the base you started at. You still are the dumb one. Who cares you had a friend with a perfect SAT math score.

You complete avoided any semblance of addressing the answer. Kinda funny. Smart guys usually have no problems addressing such things. For you it alternates between crickets and attacking. Never answering.

[Garnabby]

Depends on how you look at, or perceive, probability, which has come to be based into two camps, namely, frequentist, or, Bayesian.

---> Antipseudohypertantricautopyronecrotranshomopedosa domasobeastiality.

https://anagram-solver.net/Depends%2....?partial=true

I knew that I saw this somewhere, before. Ha.

Another moronic post can now be added to the massive trash pile of posts you have already created with your multiple aliases.

---> Antipseudohypertantricautopyronecrotranshomopedosa domasobeastiality.

https://anagram-solver.net/Another%2....?partial=true


What a "liberated" word, once dissected. Anyway, what's the point of joining a "nudist colony" (in terms of free speech, like this one) if you're not going to take off your "clothes"? I guess that I identify with "Seed", in this respect. Someone who's not afraid of his "sexuality", or whatever. It's a waste of freedom otherwise. Lol, people griping about every thing under the sun, but, in the end, all for nothing, with nothing to hope for, win, or lose. You guys are more uptight than the moderated boards.

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post153768

Garnabby Garnabby is online now
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[AxelWolf]

Axelwolf admits he's doing all the things that can result in sports books hijacking your money with what is now just legal cause. The creme de la creme of the AP world.

LOL, this is nothing new. I have been doing things since the 90s that gave casinos grounds to hijack my money.

It's just the cost of doing business. You always attempt to calculate that into whatever you're playing while considering the risk versus the reward.

There have been multiple promotions over the years where, in theory, you should risk your entire bankroll, liquidate assets, and take as many loans as possible in order to take full advantage of the situation. I.E. A 100% UNLIMITED Loss rebate, but in reality, you know there's a good possibility shit can go wrong.

I don't know when I first started multi-accounting, but it was in the 90s when Gamblers Bonus had a cardless players system when I ramped up to 50-100 accounts. I estimate that at the time, there were over 400 locations with Gamblers' Bonus Machines.

You didn't need an ID to sign up and make an account; you would simply grab a GB sign-up form with its unique code, find a machine, enter the code on the machine's GB keypad, make an 8 number login, and a 4-digit pin(. You couldn't use the same login or pin numbers; the system would reject it.), fill out the form and hand it to the employee(bartender, 7-11 cashier, cange person at the supermarket). Your account would be semi-active right away, but it would take 2 to 10 days before you were able to redeem any bonus money. Oftentimes, you would get a free $10 just for making an account. You had to use diffrent names, DOB's, addresses, and phone numbers since an employee at GB headquarters would manually enter the information and fully activate your account. You didn't need to use real names or real information; however, that could pose a problem if they suspected that was the case and they locked your account.

Getting the accounts was the easy part, but remembering the 8-digit+ login and PIN numbers while at the gaming locations without looking at notes was the hard part. I just used an alphanumeric system associated with the names of football teams, superheroes, states, and other easy-to-remember things.

Why so many accounts? Many GB locations had a play X amount and get that amount added to your account. Some places were daily, some places were 2 times a week, some places were once a week. There were other good bonuses, but that's a story for a diffrent time.

The most common was to play $25 and get $25, the 2nd most common was $50 for $50, but some locations would have $100 - $200. At some locations, the EV was worth full value as they had over 100% Video Poker. Even the places that didn't have full pay machines, you may have only been giving up 1%. Of course, you wanted to over-tip, ensuring that the employees turned a blind eye if they noticed you were multi-accounting. It wasn't hard for them to figure out you were multi-accounting, since whenever you logged on, their printer printed out a small receipt with the person's first name on it. They could also see the person's name in some of the systems. Fortunately for me, I seemed to know a lot of John Smiths.

You could play at multiple locations and get multiple bonuses added. You could cash out your bonus money at any location. One of the problems was that you could only redeem $25 per day on low-level accounts. High-level accounts were up to $150. Even with multiple accounts, you could end up with quite a bit of extra money that would take multiple days to cash out.

Another hard part, and the most important part, was finding the locations that were running the play X get X promotion. As I said before, I estimate there are over 400 locations spread throughout the town there may have only been 25 different locations that were running the promotion, if that, it could have been much less.
Some places would stop running the promotion, while others would start up. Some places went for years, some places only did it during the holiday season.

So what was this worth at the peak? Well, I guess it depended on how many accounts you had and what levels they were at, and how much they were giving.

I remember one period where I was solo, focusing only on GB bonuses, where they were running a lot of $50 for 50's during the holiday season. I had approximately 10k in EV and made approximately 10k during that week. It lasted a few weeks, and by the end, I did fairly well. Of course, there was extra time spent collecting bonus money.

With driving time, it took about 30 hours per week. No, that's not groundbreaking money, but to me, it was enjoyable like a treasure hunt and basically free money.

What does this have to do with getting your money and accounts hijacked? Occasionally, Gamblers Bonus would do a purge of accounts at a particular location once they figured out that location was getting hit hard with multiple accounts. Of course, some of my accounts would get locked, and I would lose out on thousands of dollars. The cost of earning that money was negligible; it just sucked, and you shrugged it off.

I had no control over that, as there would be guys who would come in and play multiple accounts on the same machine, one after another, and even stiff the bartender afterwards. In my case, Im sure some of the bartenders knew what I was doing, and yet they all comped my food and didn't seem to care as I tipped well and didn't make what I was doing obvious; therefore, the bartenders could also claim ignorance. Some of the bartenders would tell me about other locations that were also doing the promotions.

[AxelWolf]

Random means occurring by chance, done without any definite plan, purpose, or pattern.

Do you think it's possible to calculate your approximate +EV (or-EV) while betting non-random events?

Example: Let's say we have live betting on a pool tournament. A skilled pool player has been tracked on 5000 shots, making a particular shot 50% of the time. So far, on this day that player has been playing up to his standard of play.

That particular shot situation has come up for this player. Some ploppys bet heavily on the no, he will not make the shot, thus moving the line to +115 on the yes, he will make the shot. Do you believe you(or someome) can confidently calculate their approximate EV on betting the yes?

[jdaewoo]

Why the fuck would you ask that trolling retard anything?

[Garnabby]

Holy fuck, man. How long did it take to type all of this? Show your readers (and yourself) a little respect.

---> WP: List of really really stupid article ideas that you should not create.

https://anagram-solver.net/Holy%20fu....?partial=true


WP = Well Played, or, Wrong Person. Ha.

[kewlJ]

This discussion gets stupider and stupider from the anti-APers end. That would be redietz, coach belly and Garnabby and his multiple personalities.

Advantage players find and play things at an advantage (+EV) using math, including some things involving sports betting.

The anti-APers claim it can't be done.

So you have one group actually doing something while the other is just talking, saying it can't be done.

I have only been doing what I am doing, the old bonus whore play for a couple years. But you have some APs, like axelwolf, that have successfully done it for decades.

So who are you going to believe: The people that have successfully done it for decades or a few anti-APers with a bug up their ass that refuse to believe it can be done.

It always boils down to one thing. These anti-APers are losing degen type gamblers, that hate that there are players that win using math and finding advantaegous situtations.....so they just refuse to believe it. They would rather live in denial.

[Garnabby]

Sure, man, we all believe that you made millions from blackjack. So, what now? Ha.

[AxelWolf]

Holy fuck, man. How long did it take to type all of this? Show your readers (and yourself) a little respect.

---> WP:List of really really stupid article ideas that you should not create.

https://anagram-solver.net/Holy%20fu....?partial=true


WP = Well Played, or, Wrong Person. Ha.

Oh, I suck at typing. I probably use four hovering fingers in a hunting Peck manner, I don't know, I haven't really paid attention.

A lot of my early posts on WOV were made with an on-screen keyboard, quickly clicking one letter at a time. I remember traveling with RS on a play, and he saw me making a post via that method, and he's like Are you fucking kidding me? How is that even possible?

Oftentimes, I just use speech-to-text as in this case; it consistently fucks up, but I don't care. It didn't take me long at all, but whatever the case, it doesn't matter since it's raining out today, I don't feel like doing anything, and I'm auto-playing a bonus at an online casino in the background.

[mickeycrimm]

That's ridiculous.

Are pass attempts, field goal attempts, free throw attempts , spare attempts, etc random events?

Is the DB's defense of a pass a random event?

What's the likelihood of a successfully executed straight-arm, or open field tackle?

We don't know in advance whether the golfer will hit and hold the green with his shot, the outcome is uncertain before it occurs.

Does that make hitting a shot on the green an outcome of a random event?

Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.

It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.

I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.

It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.

You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every single play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.

What is the meaning you understand by "random" when you write of "the math of random events"?

The game is replete with random fumbles, random interceptions and random ball bounces. A few inches can decide games. If there were no randomness in the game you would know the exact score before the game starts. Repeat. The exact score. Not something close. The exact score.

[kewlJ]

Sure, man, we all believe that you made millions from blackjack. So, what now? Ha.

I don't know if I have made millions (plural) from blackjack. I would have to check my records, some of which I don't even have for the early years. I know I am well above 2 million in total advantage play winnings, but blackjack alone, could be on either side of that milestone. I think it is over, but honestly would have to check.

But BillYung, you are proving what I just said. You hate people that actually win, when apparently with all your brain power you can't and haven't. For one the supervised facility you are in, probably won't allow you near a casino.

I have way more than demonstrated that I know the math of what I do (card counting math is not that hard), and more importantly, have learned and know how to play to be welcome to play (longevity). Anyone that is in denial and doesn't want to believe that, believe whatever you like. Hey the earth is flat right?

But really, why am I responding to this doofus with multiple personality disorder that clearly goes on and off his meds.

[jdaewoo]

If an orange belt in karate went up to a black belt in Judo and BJJ and told them they don't know anything about martial arts they would think the orange belt dude is retarded. And they'd be right.

redietz is the orange belt

[kewlJ]

I have a theory about Bob Dietz that I haven't expressed before. He KNOWS almost everything he says about online sports betting is bullshit. He knows because he has done much of this stuff himself for many years. He is trying to deflect others from doing it.

BUT Dietz is such small potatoes, literally nickel and dime, that he makes peanuts at it (pretty much what Kim Lee concluded). It is a big deal to this guy if he can make a few hundred in a year. And that is why he gets so damn excited about coming close in some free Thursday night contest where he could win a few hundred dollars. THAT is big money to him. And he needs it because without a few hits like that he has trouble paying the taxes on the little house his late wife bought for him.

[Don Perignom]

Holy fuck, man. How long did it take to type all of this? Show your readers (and yourself) a little respect.

Oh, I suck at typing. I probably use four hovering fingers in a hunting Peck manner, I don't know, I haven't really paid attention.

Garnabby is the Mark Sanchez of VCT.

I thoroughly enjoyed your story.

[accountinquestion]

Wow. If this is part of the "AP" argument, there is no point in responding. Ever. Just wow.

It's so weird. I just assume people talking about probability while assigning themselves an "AP" label have at least taken a course or two or have some basic sense of terms, like "random." The idea that someone could say what smurgerburger just did and actually gamble for decent amounts of money is bizarre and frightening.

I wonder if kewlJ and Axelwolf have similar views. Just wow. I always do this. You'd think I would learn. Because I'm not a mathematician, and because I had a dear friend who scored perfect on math SATs, I start with the base idea that I'm the dumb or untrained one.

It's like I always say, if you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room. As far as sports betting goes, I appear to be in the wrong room.

You know what's funny? The Riddler made a profit with every play for two years here. Every single play. I gave away half a teaser in the Sports Betting thread last week (my first giveaway ever). It won four minutes into the third quarter. I didn't get an acknowledgement, much less a thanks. These guys are classic.

What is the meaning you understand by "random" when you write of "the math of random events"?

The game is replete with random fumbles, random interceptions and random ball bounces. A few inches can decide games. If there were no randomness in the game you would know the exact score before the game starts. Repeat. The exact score. Not something close. The exact score.

Even coin flipping is based on the randomness of the motion in flipping the coin. Nothing is completely random outside of mathematical constructs. This doesn't mean the word random loses utility in gambling.

Anyone who says throwing a football is that different probably doesn't understand things as well.